Monthly Archives: August 2013

Cody Willard: Game plan for a completely corrupted market

"So, what’s the game plan? It remains the same. You want to remain net long those inflated stocks for at least a while longer, but much less aggressively long than we were two and three years ago when stock prices were much lower. You want to keep buying and scaling into more real physical gold and silver (and a tiny position in Bitcoins too). Coins and bullion that you have stored yourself somewhere safe (not a paper promise, but the real stuff that you can hold). You want to start shorting Treasurys, but not rush into a big position anytime soon. The trends and systems and bubbles we’re seeing in front of us presently can last much longer than most bears thinks possible." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingCody Willard: Game plan for a completely corrupted market

How Bad Can Things Get?

"The typical American household has made no preparation for anything but the state-debt-feudal Status Quo: they have essentially no food, cash or energy in reserve, leaving the household extremely vulnerable to the slightest disruptions in income, energy and food delivery. How bad can things get? I confess to following Andy Grove's dictum that 'only the paranoid survive.' Clearly, a healthy appreciation for risk and the benefits of advance planning should obstacles arise offers selective advantages. Even if 9 of 10 problems run into the ditch, it pays to look ahead and think about what responses are likely to be the lowest cost and most successful should any of the 10 reach us." Continue reading →

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Present Shock and the Fantasy of Change

"Millennials (born 1982-2004) are pursuing high-cost university educations in the belief that multiple degrees are now essential to being offered a job. Even as evidence piles up that the economy has changed in fundamental ways such that even advanced degrees no longer inoculate the owner against financial insecurity, millions of young people feel they have no choice but to indebt themselves and spend scarce family resources on a questionable-value education. The underlying assumption here is the present will endure, and change will be marginal. The idea that the narrative of history suggests major disruptions of the status quo are cyclical and thus inevitable doesn't register." Continue reading →

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An Important History Lesson: Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic

"Why did the German government not act to halt the inflation? It was a shaky, fragile government…More than inflation, the Germans feared unemployment. In 1919 the Communists had tried to take over, and severe unemployment might give the Communists another chance. The great German industrial combines — Krupp, Thysen, Farben, Stinnes — condoned the inflation and survived it well. A cheaper mark, they reasoned, would make German goods cheap and easy to export, and they needed the export earnings to buy raw materials abroad. Inflation kept everyone working. So the printing presses ran, and once they began to run, they were hard to stop." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingAn Important History Lesson: Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic

The Recession That Never Ended: 2008-2013 (and Counting)

"Huge leaps in the income and wealth of the top 5% mask the decline of income and wealth of the bottom 95%. Average all wealth and income and it appears that the economy is expanding to the benefit of all, when it fact only the top 5% have escaped the recession; the recession never ended for the bottom 95%. An even better way to create an illusory expansion is to simply not measure trends that would reveal a deepening recession. For example, what percentage of student loans are purposefully taken out as a substitute for income, i.e. used to pay basic living expenses rather than education?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Recession That Never Ended: 2008-2013 (and Counting)

Lengthy, costly trail to Bay Bridge’s eastern span

"The $6.4 billion eastern span of the bridge costs roughly five times its original estimate and took at least seven years longer than expected. It took Caltrans officials 7 1/2 years and $1 million in research before they decided to replace the eastern span rather than retrofit it. In March, as contractors were tightening huge bolts attaching seismic safety devices to the bridge deck, the rods cracked. The surprising discovery of the cracked rods, some as long as 17 feet, led to an intensive investigation into how and why it happened and who was responsible, how the embarrassing problem could be fixed and whether - and when - it would be safe to open the bridge." Continue reading →

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The Italian government really screwed this poor woman

"They’ve jacked tax rates to the moon. And governments have forced banks to become unofficial tax collectors… limiting the amount of money that can be withdrawn and scrutinizing international wire transfers. Then the government went and, practically overnight, made her agricultural operations unprofitable. The home is another story altogether. The villa was awarded a special status as a sort of national monument years ago. This meant that she was able to make upgrades, improvements, and maintenance investments on a tax-free basis. The government revoked this status, retroactively. And they’ve now presented her with a big tax bill that she was never expecting before." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Italian government really screwed this poor woman

A Finicky Thief of the Finest Silver Is Arrested Again

"Even before someone carefully removed a windowpane from a secluded Buckhead home here one rainy June night and slipped away with a 1734 silver mug that had belonged to George II, it was clear to detectives that a meticulous thief with a singular obsession was stealing the great silver pieces of the Old South. For months, exquisite sterling silver collections had been disappearing, taken in the dead of night from historic homes in Charleston and Belle Meade, Tenn. The police did not at first connect the thefts, some of which initially went unnoticed even by the owners. But as the burglaries piled up, a retired New Jersey detective watching reports on the Internet recognized a familiar pattern." Continue reading →

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Japan’s debt-funding costs to hit $257 billion next year

"Japan expects to spend a record $257 billion to service its debt during the next fiscal year, a document obtained by Reuters showed, underscoring the huge burden created by the government's borrowings. That will be up 13.7 percent from the amount set aside for the current fiscal year, reflecting the ministry's plan to guard against any future rise in long-term interest rates. Years of fiscal stimulus to revive a stagnant economy and surging social welfare costs for a rapidly ageing population have led to Japan running a record 1,000 trillion yen ($10 trillion) in public debt, double the size of its economy and the biggest among major industrialized nations." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJapan’s debt-funding costs to hit $257 billion next year

Argentina rejects court order to pay ‘vulture fund’

"Argentina has said it will continue to pay back debt on its own terms, after a US appeals court ordered the South American country to hand $1.47 billion (1.1 billion euros) to two hedge funds holding its defaulted bonds. Buenos Aires’ defiant stance is just the latest chapter in an ongoing dispute over government bonds it defaulted on in 2001. Facing bankruptcy at the time, the country struck a deal with almost all of its creditors to restructure its debt at a discount of nearly 70 percent. Argentina has claimed that the court’s decision would spur the other 93% of creditors who previously agreed to a deal to also demand full repayment, thus forcing the country back to bankruptcy." Continue reading →

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