Yearly Archives: 2016

Gold Is Back in Fashion After a $15 Trillion Global Selloff

"The $15 trillion rout in global equity markets since May is reawakening the lure of gold for investors seeking safety. Hedge funds more than doubled their net-long position in bullion last week, just three weeks after they were the most-bearish ever. Investor holdings of gold through exchange-traded products are expanding at the fastest pace in a year, and the value of the ETPs has jumped by $3 billion in 2016. Fed Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said this month that the central bank’s projected path for more policy tightening is at risk, citing falling estimates for U.S. economic growth. Gold reached a five-year low in December as the dollar strengthened and U.S. inflation stayed stagnant." Continue reading →

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Audit the Fed Legislation Sinks: Plan Accordingly

"Rand Paul and Ron Paul, the dynamic duo of anti-Fed forces, invested a lot of time and money trying to get that legislation passed. But even if it reached Barack Obama's desk, it would have been vetoed. Of course, the Fed pushed back against the legislation. Fed Chairman Janet Yellen penned a letter to senators before the vote claiming that the legislation would deprive the Fed of necessary independence. She also noted that passing the legislation might generate an inflation scare and cause interest rates to rise. One wonders if this was a subdued threat." Continue reading →

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Iran to be hooked up to global banks in weeks; U.S. investors still banned

"A nuclear deal between world powers and Iran led to the removal of the curbs on Tehran's banking, insurance and shipping sectors last weekend, as well as restrictions on oil exports. But for Iran to resume business with the global banking world - for the first time since 2012 - its banks need to be linked to overseas lenders on SWIFT. The system is used to transmit payments and letters of credit. Many international sanctions relating to Iran's nuclear program were lifted but most involving U.S. measures remain in place. Non-U.S. banks may trade with Iran without fear of punishment in the United States but U.S. banks may not do so, directly or indirectly." Continue reading →

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U.S. bailout places ‘Puerto Rico’s democracy at risk’

"The U.S. Senate is considering a bill called the Puerto Rico Assistance Act of 2015. It offers minor assistance: a temporary reduction in payroll taxes and a 'development fund' of $3 billion. But the real purpose of this bill is the installation of a six-member Financial Control Authority. That authority, if it gets the chance, will rule over Puerto Rico. Completely. What this legislation contemplates is beyond extraordinary; it is essentially the destruction of whatever semblance of genuine democracy currently rules the island. According to the bill, five members will be appointed by the U.S. President. The sixth will be the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, who will also serve as Chairman." Continue reading →

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Only in Argentina: Where Minus 3% Bond Yields Are All the Rage [2015]

"While the bonds yield minus 3.1 percent, it’s a small price to pay in a country where capital controls have caused multiple black-market exchange rates to proliferate and rampant inflation has eroded the value of peso deposits. Foreign companies, prevented from repatriating dividends because of the controls, are also buying the securities as a hedge against a potential devaluation, which has become more likely as trading partners from Brazil to China weaken their own currencies, said Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, director of economic consultant Elypsis. The government sold the equivalent of $1.1 billion of dollar-linked bonds due in 2017 on Tuesday, the first such sale in nine months." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingOnly in Argentina: Where Minus 3% Bond Yields Are All the Rage [2015]

After QE failure, BOJ’s Kuroda says no plan to ease policy now

"Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday he had no plan to expand monetary stimulus now, blaming sharp declines in oil costs for keeping consumer inflation distant from the bank's ambitious 2 percent target. While he maintained his optimistic view of the economy, Kuroda stressed his resolve to ease monetary policy further if risks threaten achievement of the BOJ's price target. The remarks, made in response to a question by an opposition lawmaker, pushed down Japanese stocks on disappointment that no immediate monetary stimulus was forthcoming." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingAfter QE failure, BOJ’s Kuroda says no plan to ease policy now

Saudi Arabia’s Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big Deal

"That question -- unanswered since the 1970s, under an unusual blackout by the U.S. Treasury Department -- has come to the fore as Saudi Arabia is pressured by plunging oil prices and costly wars in the Middle East. As a matter of policy, the Treasury has never disclosed the holdings of Saudi Arabia, long a key ally in the volatile Middle East, and instead groups it with 14 other mostly OPEC nations including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. Apart from the kingdom itself, only a handful of Treasury officials, and those at the Federal Reserve who compile the data on their behalf, have a clear picture of Saudi Arabia’s U.S. debt holdings and whether they’re rising or falling." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingSaudi Arabia’s Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big Deal

World Bank tells Saudis to prop up currency amid global devaluation war

"Saudi Arabia should use its massive foreign exchange reserves to defend the riyal, amid fears the world is descending into a new phase of global currency wars, the World Bank has said. The kingdom’s shaky currency peg with the dollar has come under record pressure this week as the price of oil has plummeted to near 12-year lows. Central bank reserves have dropped from a peak of $735bn to around $635bn this year - a pace of spending which will exhaust the kingdom’s fiscal buffers within five years The monarchy has vowed to stick by the exchange regime and is instead planning to strengthen its coffers through the unprecedented flotation of its state-owned oil giant, Aramco." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWorld Bank tells Saudis to prop up currency amid global devaluation war

Ron Paul Says to Watch the Petrodollar

"From 1972 to 1974, the U.S. government made a series of agreements with Saudi Arabia. These agreements created the petrodollar system. The U.S. government chose Saudi Arabia because of its vast petroleum reserves, its dominant position in OPEC, and the (correct) perception that the Saudi royal family was corruptible. In essence, the petrodollar system was an agreement that the U.S. would guarantee the survival of the House of Saud. It’s hard to overstate how much the petrodollar system benefits the U.S. dollar. It’s allowed the U.S. government and many Americans to live beyond their means for decades." Continue reading →

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Saudis ‘will not destroy the US shale industry’: hedge funds

"Hedge funds and private equity groups armed with $60bn of ready cash are poised to snap up the assets of bankrupt US shale drillers, almost guaranteeing that America’s tight oil production will rebound as soon as prices start to recover. Mr Yergin said groups with deep pockets such as Blackstone and Carlyle will take over the infrastructure when the distressed assets are cheap enough, and bide their time until the oil cycle turns. Many shale bonds are trading at distress level below 50 cents on the dollar, even for mid-risk companies. Banks are being careful not to push them into receivership but they themselves are under pressure." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingSaudis ‘will not destroy the US shale industry’: hedge funds