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Bill Bonner: The Japanese Will Learn to Tango

"For nearly a quarter century, Japan’s diligent savers have funded its government deficits. Now, the savers are retiring. They need their money back. At the same time, Japan’s trade surplus is disappearing. Where will the money come to keep the lights on? Nowhere. Already, there are days when scarcely a single buyer steps up to buy Japanese bonds. The central bank of Japan takes up the slack. And as people get older (spending their savings rather than adding to them) and as the country’s current account surplus disappears (Japan is not the export powerhouse it once was), more slack appears. The Bank of Japan will come to the rescue, of course." Continue reading →

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Japan to keep printing money for years to come, so learn to enjoy it

"The authorities are about to funnel large sums into Japanese stocks openly and deliberately under the next phase of Abenomics, both by regulatory fiat and by purchasing the Nikkei index directly with printed money. Prime minister Shinzo Abe is unshackling the world's biggest stash of savings, the $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). Officials say the ceiling on equity holdings will rise from 12pc to around 20pc as soon as August, opening the way for a $100bn buying blitz. Mr Abe's move comes sooner than expected and amounts to a market shock, though nobody should be shocked anymore as he keeps doubling down on the world's most radical economic experiment." Continue reading →

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Will SoFi Take Sallie Mae’s Best Customers?

"After the financial crisis proved the government would spend tens of trillions of dollars to keep banks from going belly up, you would think that nothing will kill them. But now the ineffable forces of Stanford-branded reinvention are going after their customers. Do investors in publicly traded lenders need to get out before it’s too late? A case in point is student lending giant, SLM – formed as the Student Loan Marketing Association — which is in the cross-hairs of a San Francisco-based peer-to-peer lending powerhouse, Social Finance, Inc. (SoFi). As CEO Mike Cagney, a graduate of Stanford Business School, explained, SoFi is growing fast." Continue reading →

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Fed Prepares to Maintain Record Balance Sheet for Years

"Federal Reserve officials, concerned that selling bonds from their $4.3 trillion portfolio could crush the U.S. recovery, are preparing to keep their balance sheet close to record levels for years. Central bankers are stepping back from a three-year-old strategy for an exit from the unprecedented easing they deployed to battle the worst recession since the Great Depression. The Fed is testing new tools that would allow it to keep a large balance sheet even after it raises short-term interest rates, a step policy makers anticipate taking next year. They would use these tools to drain excess reserves temporarily from the banking system." Continue reading →

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U.S. Regulators Mull Yanking Access To USD As Punishment For Banks

"BNP Paribas is expected to plead guilty in the coming weeks to charges that it processed payments for companies and countries that were subject to United States sanctions. BNP Paribas is also expected to pay financial penalties of about $8 billion, which would leave a sizable, though manageable, dent on its balance sheet. Despite those potential punishments, some regulators want to do more. Specifically, Benjamin M. Lawsky, New York State’s top financial regulator, is considering whether to temporarily suspend BNP Paribas’s ability to process dollar payments, according to people briefed on the settlement talks." Continue reading →

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ECB: Bank With Us … and We’ll Charge You Interest

"This morning, the ECB took the radical stepof cutting its deposit rate to negative 0.1 percent. It also lowered its benchmark lending rate (similar to the federal funds rate the U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising and lowering for decades) to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent. Furthermore, it tried to boost the mortgage and business loan businesses by offering to buy Asset Backed Securities (ABS) and by launching more Long-Term Refinancing Operations. While central banks in Sweden and Denmark took tentative steps in the direction of negative rates, the ECB’s move is unprecedented because no major world central bank has ever tried it before." Continue reading →

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Fed Money Pumping Brings Results: The Affluent Society Returns

"Once again, monetary inflation is being confused with high-end entrepreneurialism. Ludwig von Mises, the great Austrian economist, was not fooled about the wealth effect of modern finance and, indeed, with his colleague FA Hayek dealt a devastating blow to the ever-reoccurring idea that 'this time it's different.' It's not different. Never. It just depends on where you are in the business cycle. Like a bad penny, this dream often recurs when the Fed has dumped enough money into the economy. These funds slosh around in the recesses of commercial banks and financial firms and then gradually find their way into stock markets and thence into high-end real estate." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: This Should Make Every American Angry…

"When the price of money goes down banks’ profit margins go up; by moving to zero interest rates, the Fed handed them higher earnings. And by guaranteeing the debt of the weakest institutions, the Fed gave big bonuses to the worst managers. Now, the alcohol is taking effect. All around the world markets stagger. Economies slur their words. Investors have severe memory loss. Businessmen can’t tell up from down. And the poor consumer gets a headache every time he checks his bank balance. Some people have access to the free money. Others don’t. Those with the access tend to be in the financial elite. It is no wonder the rich get richer; the game is rigged." Continue reading →

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Lebanon’s financial sector prepares to open books to Uncle Sam

"The Lebanese banking sector has been preparing for FATCA like the teacher’s pet not because it is a major advocate of reining in tax havens — Lebanese law explicitly allows companies set up with offshore tax status — or greater taxation transparency and new tax laws in the country. Rather, the sector is exceedingly wary of international regulators, specifically of falling foul of the US Treasury. This is due to Lebanon’s immense exposure to American leverage: some 70 percent of local deposits are held in US dollars; [..] no one wants a repeat of the 2011 Lebanese Canadian Bank fiasco, when the bank was accused by the US of money laundering and subsequently closed its doors." Continue reading →

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77,000 Foreign Banks To Share Account Info With IRS

"Nearly 70 countries have agreed to share information from their banks as part of a U.S. law that targets Americans' assets overseas. Starting in March 2015, these financial institutions have agreed to supply the IRS with names, account numbers and balances for accounts controlled by U.S. taxpayers. The law requires American banks to withhold 30 percent of certain payments to foreign banks that don't participate in the program — a significant price for access to the world's largest economy. The withholding applies to stocks and bonds, including U.S. Treasurys. Some previously owned securities would be exempt from the withholding, but in general, previously owned stocks would not." Continue reading →

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