Essays

How the Paper Money Experiment Will End

"We are now in a situation that looks like a dead end for the paper money system. After the last cycle, governments have bailed out malinvestments in the private sector and boosted their public welfare spending. Deficits and debts skyrocketed. Central banks printed money to buy public debts (or accept them as collateral in loans to the banking system) in unprecedented amounts. Will money printing be a constant with interest rates close to zero until people lose their confidence in the paper currencies? Can the paper money system be maintained or will we necessarily get a hyperinflation sooner or later? There are at least seven possibilities." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: Is This the World’s Cheapest Commodity Play?

"Brazil has made its share of bad decisions… and suffered its share of bad policies. Generals, dictators, repression, depression and hyperinflation – Brazil has seen it all. In the 1980s, Brazil’s consumer price increases went wild. In constant currency, a taxi ride that might have cost 4 cruzeiros in 1980 would have cost 5 trillion cruzeiros in 1994. The government tried to head off inflation by introducing a new currency, the cruzado. Then came the new cruzado. Then came the cruzeiro back. And finally, the government introduced the real. With prices rising so rapidly, it was impossible for investors and business people to make reasonable projections." Continue reading →

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Investors, Run for Cover From the Incoming ‘Taper Bomb’

"The bond market sell-off is leaving fixed-income investors (at least, those who didn’t heed my advice to get out of the way) with the worst annual losses on bonds since 1999. It also proves beyond the shadow of a doubt that the bond market is more powerful than the Fed. Now, against that backdrop, the Fed is about to hold its last policy meeting of 2013. On Dec. 17 and 18, policymakers will gather around a conference table in Washington and decide whether to continue their $85 billion-per-month QE program. My prediction? They drop a taper bomb and start dialing down those purchases, probably by at least $10 billion." Continue reading →

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Revolutionary France’s Road to Hyperinflation

"The current Federal Reserve strategy is apparently to wait for significant price inflation to show up in the consumer price index before tapering. Yet history tells us that you treat inflation like a sunburn. You don’t wait for your skin to turn red to take action. You protect yourself before leaving home. Once inflation really picks up steam, it becomes almost impossible to control as the politics and economics of the situation combine to make the urge to print irresistible. The hyperinflation of 1790s France illustrates inflationary monetary policy becoming unmanageable in an environment of economic stagnation and debt, and in the face of special interests who benefit from, and demand, easy money." Continue reading →

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Your Trip on My Time Machine

"How fast and how far could interest rates rise? How soon would they impact other sectors of the economy? How can you profit from this powerful megatrend? On a quest for the answers, I invite you to a voyage through time: We will visit five critical — and incredible — periods of the past. We will return for a reality check of the even more incredible present-day reality. And then, we will take a quick trip into the future to see, first hand, a scenario that we believe is absolutely unavoidable. Our first stop is over a half century ago." Continue reading →

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Paul Craig Roberts: The Money Changers Serenade – A New Plot Hatches

"At the IMF Research Conference on November 8, 2013, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers presented a plan to expand the con game. Summers says that it is not enough merely to give the banks interest free money. More should be done for the banks. Instead of being paid interest on their bank deposits, people should be penalized for keeping their money in banks instead of spending it. Summers acknowledges that the problem with his solution is that people would take their money out of banks and hoard it in cash holdings. Summers has a fix for this: eliminate the freedom by imposing a cashless society where the only money is electronic." Continue reading →

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Who Will Head the Fed? It Doesn’t Matter

"As leaders in the developed Western world become more authoritarian and move to confiscate wealth, most markets will actually respond very positively. Seems illogical, I know. But the facts of the matter are this: In times of war and potential confiscation of assets, stocks can become safe havens as money is pulled out of sovereign bond markets to be invested elsewhere. Commodities can take flight as investors begin to hoard tangible assets and portable wealth, and the real bull markets in precious metals truly unfold. My top recommendation right now: You can largely ignore the central bankers. Instead, keep both eyes on the leaders in Washington and Europe." Continue reading →

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Convenient Illusions: The 12 Regional Federal Reserve Banks

"What is the function of the regional Federal Reserve banks? They are primarily political. They were specifically set up to provide the illusion of regional control, when in fact the Federal Reserve System is a true central bank, with the powers associated with all national central banks. The central bank creates the monetary base on which commercial banks make loans. The regional Federal Reserve banks do not do this. The regional Federal Reserve banks are now, and have always been, a convenient illusion for misleading taxpayers and voters into believing that the Federal Reserve System is not a central bank, with all of the authority, power, and cartel control of all other central banks." Continue reading →

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Inflation Has Not Cured Iceland’s Economic Woes

"Both countries still have problems. Iceland’s monetary controls are notably stifling needed investment, while Ireland is left with a large debt from bailing out its banks, and this is stalling growth. One thing is clear though — the effects of monetary policy are stark and the proclaimed benefits of Iceland’s inflationary policy were counteracted by the price inflation that ensued. Don’t let a good crisis go to waste; learn something from it. As the tale of these two countries demonstrates, inflating one’s currency may give the appearance of recovery, but the truth is somewhat less rosy." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: Repeat After Me – Economics Is NOT a Science

"The problem is you don’t know anything. You don’t know if an economy really is like water. You don’t know where sea level is. For all you know, you’re high in the Alps. And you don’t know whether the fuel you’re using adds to the fire… or subtracts from it. QE, for example, may help heat up the economy. Or it may not. No one knows for sure. And get this. All those little molecules, you know – those individuals in the great economic pool? As soon as they catch on to what you’re doing, they will change their behavior. That’s the big difference between water and people. Water does the same thing no matter what you say or what you think. People don’t." Continue reading →

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