The Pentagon has admitted to an airstrike that is believed to have killed more than 200 civilians in the northern Iraqi city of Mosul, at the edge of the autonomous Kurdistan region. In the 1980s, Kurdistan was targeted by Saddam … Continue reading →
"As long as investors are comfortable with expected S&P 500 10-12 year total returns of less than 1% annually, with likely interim losses on the order of 50-60%, investors are free to label this situation as 'fairly valued' or with any other phrase they wish." Continue reading →
"Denmark’s biggest mortgage bank says there’s a 'real risk' Copenhagen is heading into a property bubble. Property prices in Copenhagen have risen 40-60 percent since the middle of 2012, when the central bank first resorted to negative interest rates to defend the krone’s peg to the euro. The benchmark deposit rate has been minus 0.75 percent since February as Denmark’s currency war intensified, and most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see negative rates lasting at least through 2017. The Danish regulator this month warned Danske Bank against pursuing a growth strategy in Sweden as the housing market there shows signs of imbalances." Continue reading →
"The Federal Reserve’s failure to recognize its role in driving the third dangerous asset bubble in 15 years will destroy the central bank’s reputation for good, said Albert Edwards, global strategist at Societe Generale. Edwards said it’s too late to avoid another massive collapse in asset prices. 'This time the Fed’s largesse has fueled another corporate debt explosion,' he said. 'The real rate of corporate borrowing is even greater than was seen during the late 1990s tech bubble. This is 100 percent attributable to the Fed’s excessively loose monetary policy.'" Continue reading →
"Well, we are right back at it: trying to stimulate growth through easy money. It hasn’t worked, but it’s the only tool the Fed’s got. Meanwhile, the Fed’s policies widen the wealth gap, which feeds political extremism, forcing gridlock in Washington. It seems the world is headed toward negative real interest rates on a global scale. This is toxic. Interest rates are used to price risk, and so in the current environment, the risk-pricing mechanism is broken. That is not healthy for an economy. We are building up terrific stresses in the system, and any fault lines there will certainly harm the outlook." Continue reading →
"More than 19% of today’s loans are going to subprime or 'deep subprime' borrowers — and total volume for lower credit score borrowers is just shy of its 2005 record. Indeed, lenders are basically giving loans to anyone with a pulse. The New York Fed recently found that application rejection rates have dropped to 3.3% from more than 10% a few years ago. The average loan now stretches out to a record 67 months, while 27% of U.S. loans sport terms of six to seven years. That’s because buyers can’t afford their monthly payments any other way. Bottom line: If you own auto stocks or stocks leveraged to the auto industry, sell them." Continue reading →
"The loan balances have been driven up by a combination of three factors -- strong car sales, rising car prices and low interest rates. Interest rates are low. Borrowers with top credit scores can get loans for less than 3%. But the amount owed is up 11%, a sign of the increase in the size of car loans due to rising prices. The average amount borrowed is about $21,700, and buyers owe nearly $18,000 on average. The average new car purchase price now stands at $32,529, according to sales tracker TrueCar. The average car loan balance is rising faster than it is for mortgage loans, according to TransUnion. The average payment now stands at just under $400 a month." Continue reading →
"Many American investors bought Puerto Rican bonds over the past five years as we all searched desperately for yield in the face of the Federal Reserve pushing interest rates down to historic lows. Normally, investors understand that higher yields come with greater risks. However, during the past six years of extraordinary interventions by the Fed into all sorts of financial markets, many investors may have decided that those higher yield investments weren’t really all that risky. Puerto Rico’s problems may serve as a much-needed wake up call to investors. As rates rise, capital will move back toward safety and the risk premium demanded of higher risk projects is likely to increase." Continue reading →
"Last week, without taking any care to reduce the size of its balance sheet, the Federal Reserve instantly changed the monetary environment to one that is observationally equivalent to the one that prevailed in 2009. By raising interest rates artificially (through interest payments on reserves and reverse repurchases) and applying those payments to everything but currency in circulation, the Fed has neutralized the misguided speculative prop it created through 6 years of policy distortion, and it did so in one fell swoop. From the standpoint of investors, the overall effect is just as if the Fed had suddenly reversed every dollar of quantitative easing since 2009 ($1.7 trillion)." Continue reading →
"Investors should cut risk heading into 2016 as central banks trying to pump up their respective economies make losing bets, bond guru Bill Gross says. Institutions like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are like 'casinos' that create money instead of chips 'they'll never have to redeem,' said Gross, founder of bond giant Pimco who now runs the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Fund. Furthering the gambling analogy, he said central bankers are using a familiar ploy — doubling down on losing bets until they break even. 'How long can this keep going on? Well, theoretically as long as there are financial assets (including stocks) to buy,' Gross said." Continue reading →