History Repeating

Greek Banks Reopen but Cash Limits Remain and Taxes Soar

"The cash-strapped nation got a short-term loan from European creditors to pay more than 6 billion euros ($6.5 billion) owed to the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank. But for most Greeks, already buffeted by six years of recession, Monday was all about rising prices as tax hikes demanded by creditors took effect. There are few parts of the Greek economy left untouched by the steep increase in the sales tax from 13 to 23 percent. strict controls on cash flows, including a ban on check-cashing and payments abroad as well as limits on cash withdrawals, remained in effect. New rules permit the withdrawal of up to 420 euros a week." Continue reading →

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Hidden Time Bombs Behind Greece Bailout

"Just these top four derivatives players — B of A, Goldman, Citi and JPMorgan — control nearly $203.5 trillion, or 92% of all derivatives held in the U.S. banking system. And the largest 25 U.S. banks control 99.8%. All told, the thousands of other regional, mid-sized and small banks in this country control a meager one-fifth of one percent of the derivatives. This is an oligopoly unlike any other in the financial world — one that ties the fate of the U.S. economy to these firms’ stability far beyond anything ever witnessed in prior centuries. In contrast, Lehman Brothers was actually smaller by comparison — with 'only' $7.1 trillion in derivatives." Continue reading →

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The One Lesson to Learn Before a Market Crash

"The media incorrectly suggests that the collapse of the market in 2008 began with the Lehman bankruptcy on September 15. The fact is that the market fully recovered to even higher levels the following week as the government banned short selling of financial stocks (much like China is doing more broadly at present). Weeks later, in a wicked case of 'sell the news,' the actual collapse started literally 15 seconds after the TARP bailout was passed by Congress. Investors want to tie market outcomes to very specific events or catalysts. But history suggests a different lesson: once extreme valuations are joined by a shift toward risk-aversion among investors, the specific events become irrelevant." Continue reading →

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Risky Loans Shunned by Banks Are Booming in Wall Street’s Shadow

"Regulators’ efforts to rein in Wall Street’s biggest banks are in danger of backfiring. Guidelines aimed at strengthening lending standards are shifting the market for high-yield credit to less-supervised loan funds, raising alarm this week from the Financial Stability Oversight Council. Because the funds don’t have depositors, some of their money comes from Wall Street banks, leaving systemically important institutions exposed to risks regulators hoped to avoid. BDCs and private credit funds [are called] 'Dodd-Frank banks' because they’ve grown in the wake of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act’s heightened supervisory scrutiny of regulated lenders." Continue reading →

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Greek bank official dismisses ‘haircut’ report as “baseless”

"Greek leaders have repeatedly dismissed the possibility they will have to 'bail-in' depositors to prevent the collapse of the banking system. But citing bankers and businesspeople with knowledge of the measures, the Financial Times reported: 'The plans, which call for a 'haircut' of at least 30 percent on deposits above 8,000 euros, sketch out an increasingly likely scenario for at least one bank.' The report quoted a source as saying: 'It (the haircut) would take place in the context of an overall restructuring of the bank sector once Greece is back in a bailout programme.' The head of Greece's Bank Association dismissed the report as 'completely baseless'." Continue reading →

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Chicago Public Schools’ pain is these financial firms’ gain

"Struggling to make payments for pensions and pay down billions of dollars in debt, the Chicago Public Schools last week announced 1,050 layoffs and $200 million in spending cuts to keep the school system afloat. Dozens of financial and legal firms have been paid $18.1 million in fees from CPS borrowing and debt-refinancing deals since 2011, according to records obtained by the Chicago Sun-Times. CPS still owes billions on borrowing deals dating to the mid-1990s, when then-Mayor Richard M. Daley took formal control of the school system, which then began renovating and building schools using borrowed money." Continue reading →

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Greece defaults on $1.7 billion IMF payment

"Greece became the first developed country to default to the IMF, an organization of 188 nations that tries to keep the world economy stable. Greece will now be cut off from access to IMF resources until the payment is made. The move came hours after the country made a desperate attempt Tuesday to halt its plunge into economic chaos by requesting a new European bailout. Greece asked for a two-year bailout from Europe, its third in six years. Greek banks remained shut Tuesday and limits on cash withdrawals were in place as the country tried to stave off financial collapse before the vote. Daily withdrawals are limited to 60 euros, or about $67." Continue reading →

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Greece Closes Banks and Stock Markets, Introduces Capital Controls

"The banks in Greece and the Athens Stock Exchange will remain closed until at least July 6, the day after the referendum on the austerity measures demanded by the country’s creditors. In the meantime, cash withdrawals at ATMs will be limited to 60 euros ($66) and transfers abroad will be forbidden. Greece is the second Eurozone country, after Cyprus in 2013, to impose capital controls. The move is evidently aimed at preventing panicked Greek investors and savers from taking their money out of the nation’s banks and moving it elsewhere. In the days before the predictable stall of the negotiations with Europe, many Greeks rushed to withdraw their money." Continue reading →

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John Hussman: All Their Eggs in Janet’s Basket

"Investors whose strategy is to follow the Fed – in the belief that stocks will advance as long as the Fed does not raise interest rates – are free to place all their eggs in Janet’s basket. On the other hand, for investors whose strategy is historically informed by factors that have reliably distinguished market advances from collapses over a century of history, our suggestion is to consider a stronger defense. Our greatest successes have been when our investment outlook was aligned with valuations and market internals, and our greatest disappointments have been when it was not. Both factors are unfavorable at present, and our outlook is aligned accordingly." Continue reading →

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The Fed Chairs Have a Habit of Hazing

"Paul Volcker took over as Chair of the Fed in August 1979. A recession officially began five months later. This was the worst recession since the Great Depression. In August 1987 Alan Greenspan took over the Fed. Two months later 'Black Monday' occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow dropped 22.6% that day alone–the worst one-day crash in history. In February 2006 Ben Bernanke became Fed chair. The worst recession since the Great Depression officially began in December 2007, and you may recall there was some trouble in the financial markets in September 2008… In January 2014 Janet Yellen became Fed chair." Continue reading →

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