History Repeating

Fed Hawks Want Rate Hikes Soon

"A trio of inflation hawks at the Federal Reserve — Richard Fisher, Esther George and Charles Plosser — believe it's about time to take the punch bowl away. The three regional Fed bank presidents are on a mission to urge their colleagues to take a tougher monetary policy stance, CNNMoney reported. If they are successful, Americans would be hit with higher rates on mortgages, small business loans and credit cards, and many on Wall Street fear bonds and stocks would also suffer. But the Fed hawks believe the alternative to tighter policy could be high inflation and more dangerous asset bubbles." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Hawks Want Rate Hikes Soon

The Fed’s Dreaded Dilemma: A Weak Economy Plus Inflation

"The fact that the Fed’s PCE index is showing inflationary pressure is significant, since it is essentially designed to lowball price increases. The CPI gives a 31 percent weighting to shelter costs and a 17 percent weighting to transportation (read as rent and gasoline), which the PCE basically cuts in half. By reducing the volatility of its preferred inflation gauge, the Fed essentially gives itself the leeway to maintain a looser policy longer. But the fact that the PCE is on the rise leaves the Fed in a conundrum, having said for years now that it would act when inflation reaches an annualized 2 percent, a level that is fast approaching." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Fed’s Dreaded Dilemma: A Weak Economy Plus Inflation

Fed Still on Red Alert

"It’s bad enough that central bankers create money out of nowhere to buy bonds. Now it turns out that’s not all they’re buying. A study by global research firm Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) states global public investors 'as a whole appear to have built up their investments in publicly quoted equities by at least $1 [trillion] in recent years.' The percentage of financial advisors who are bullish on the stock market jumped to 62.2%, the fifth straight week this indicator has been above the key 55% level. Other noteworthy tops came in August 1987 (60.8%), October 2007 (62%), and December 2004 (62.9%)." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Still on Red Alert

On The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

"The current plan is that–so long as the economy doesn’t crash–the Fed will taper to $25 billion in August, then $15 billion in September, and then wipe out the remaining $15 billion in October. Here’s a chart showing the behavior of the S&P500 versus the monetary base. It used to be the case that the stock market bounced around with little relation to the Fed’s asset purchases. But since early 2009 and the introduction of QE programs, the stock market and the Fed’s bond buying have moved in virtual lockstep. Let me ask you this: Do you think the S&P should be hitting all-time highs because of how great the underlying economic fundamentals have been the last few years?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingOn The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

Federal Reserve likely to end QE stimulus program in October

"The Federal Reserve is set to end its economic stimulus program in October, bringing to an end the controversial five-year-old scheme even as officials said there were signs that the US economy was still in trouble. Officials have been winding down their monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities since January, but had not set an end date for the scheme. Controversial from the outset, QE was designed to keep long-term interest rates down and encourage investors to back stocks or corporate debt in order to stimulate the economy. Stock markets have hit record highs under QE yet the unemployment rate remains high and there are continuing signs of weakness." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFederal Reserve likely to end QE stimulus program in October

Corporate Bonds Are The IEDs Of Monetary Central Planning

"The Fed’s sustained, heavy-handed financial repression has generated the greatest ever scramble for yield, and it is now entering its seventh year. Consequently, speculators and bond fund managers are all in the same side of the boat. And all but the most intrepid traders are scared to death to short the Fed, fearing that any day it might uncork yet another round of bond market repression. So we have basically a highly artificial one-way market in corporate bonds—both investment grade and high yield. Very recently yields in the latter touched an all-time low of 4.87%, meaning that after inflation and taxes there is virtually no room for losses on securities that are called 'junk bonds' for a reason." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingCorporate Bonds Are The IEDs Of Monetary Central Planning

Fed fears risks posed by exit tools; plan almost done

"The sheer magnitude of the amounts of money used to combat the crisis - $2.6 trillion sitting at the Fed as bank reserves and $4.2 trillion held by the Fed in various securities - may complicate the U.S. central bank's ability to control its target interest rate once the decision is made that it should be raised. The Fed has neared consensus that its workhorse tool will be the interest it pays banks on excess reserves on deposit at the Fed. Another tool would have a similar impact but apply more broadly, using overnight repurchase agreements that would let money market funds and other institutions as well as banks essentially make short-term deposits at the Fed." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed fears risks posed by exit tools; plan almost done

Yellen Sees Little Threat to Financial Stability

"Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said Wednesday that she doesn't see a need for the Fed to start raising interest rates to defuse the risk that extremely low rates could destabilize the financial system. Yellen said she does see 'pockets' of increased risk-taking. But she said those threats could be addressed through greater use of regulatory tools, such as higher capital standards for banks. Some critics of Fed policies have warned that the central bank could be setting the stage for another dangerous bubble by keeping rates so low for so long. In her speech, Yellen said she didn't see dangerous excesses in the financial system." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingYellen Sees Little Threat to Financial Stability

Japan consumer price growth at 32-year high

"Consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May, the fastest pace in 32 years, as the effect of the sales tax hike from 5% to 8% started to be felt. The price growth in May follows a 3.2% jump in April and is a big boost for Japan's attempt to trigger inflation. The country's central bank has set a target of a 2% inflation rate. The measures, which include boosting the country's money supply, have started to have an impact and consumer prices in the country have now risen for 12 months in a row. Policymakers have been hoping that consumers and business will be encouraged to start spending and not hold back on purchases, as they may have to pay more later on." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJapan consumer price growth at 32-year high

BIS: Central banks warned of ‘false sense of security’

"'The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has warned that ultra-low interest rates have lulled governments and markets "into a false sense of security'. The Basel-based organisation - usually dubbed the 'central banks' central bank' - urged policy makers to begin to normalise rates. 'The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated,' the BIS said. Markets have rallied since January. The FTSE all-world share index is up 5% so far this year, while the 'fear index', is at a 7-year low. 'Overall, it is hard to avoid the sense of a puzzling disconnect between the markets' buoyancy and underlying economic developments globally,' the BIS said in its annual report." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBIS: Central banks warned of ‘false sense of security’