"New York Fed economists Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa are out with a new article on Liberty Street Economics titled, 'Are Stocks Cheap? A Review of the Evidence.' The answer: judging by the equity risk premium (ERP), stocks are about as cheap as they've ever been. The last time the Fed said something so bold was when in 2004 when NY Fed economists wrote that there was no housing bubble." Continue reading →
"Although the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed for the first time above 15000 Tuesday, a new poll finds that the percentage of Americans who own stocks stands at a 15-year low point. Barely half of Americans, 52 percent, now say they own stock outright or as part of a mutual fund or self-directed retirement account, the polling group Gallup reported Wednesday. The level has been falling for six straight annual surveys, even though US stocks have more than doubled in value since hitting a recession low point in 2009. The decline in stock investing has been largest among middle-aged and middle-income Americans, the poll found." Continue reading →
"Investors have reached a new level of bullishness. They're borrowing again to buy stocks, confident that prices go in only one direction. There's also a swift current of economic analysis telling us that the commodities boom is over, the Fed has the situation under control and the bull market in gold is finished. All of which is amazing and often breathtaking. Stock market investors don't seem to know or care that the only thing holding up their investments is something that will ultimately destroy them. And that the longer it continues, the bigger the mess when it finally blows up. We're talking, of course, about the Fed's monetary policy." Continue reading →
"In China, where gold has long been a national obsession, a mid-April record crash in global gold prices has been seen as an unprecedented buying opportunity. According to reports in China, Chinese have purchased 300 tons of gold worth more than $16 billion since the crash. Photos of crowds packing jewelry shops and emptying their shelves are now regular features in the news media. China’s voracious appetite for gold is long-standing. At Chinese jewelry stores, the spot price for gold is always prominently displayed. Calculators and scales are never out of a customer’s reach." Continue reading →
"Hard-pressed company bosses across much of the world are under so much pressure to deliver on growth that many have resorted to cooking the books, Ernst & Young said in a survey Tuesday. One in five of almost 3,500 staff quizzed in 36 countries in Europe, the Middle East, Africa and India said they had seen financial manipulation in their companies in the last 12 months, the accounting and consultancy firm said. In addition 42 percent of board directors and top managers questioned in the fraud survey said they were aware of 'some type of irregular financial reporting.'" Continue reading →
"Since the mid-November lows, the S&P 500 has gained a remarkable 268 points on the back of faith, hope, and Bernanke/Kuroda charity. But perhaps what is more mind-numbing is that this efficient market has given us more than 50% of those gains on Tuesdays. With 17 up-days in a row, Tuesday is the Monday dip-buyers dream. Since 1/18, absent Tuesdays, the S&P 500 has gone nowhere. Maybe Bob Geldof needs to write a new song for the US investor 'I do like Tuesdays', or at least a slightly revised cover version of the Bangles' 'Manic Tuesday'. What would we do without Tuesdays?" Continue reading →
"Although many were up in arms when the Fed said it would buy $600 billion in government debt outright for the previous round, QE2, all seems quiet about the magnitude of QE3 because it doesn’t come with huge up-front total price tag. But by year’s end the Fed’s balance sheet could hit $4 trillion. With no recovery in sight, where’s all this money going? It is creating bubbles. Bubbles in the housing sector, the stock market, and government debt. The stock market has been hitting record highs for the past two months as investors seek to capitalize on the Fed’s easy money. As long as the Fed keeps the spigot open, nominal profits are there for the taking." Continue reading →
"Bart Chilton, Commodities Futures Trading Commission commissioner, tells CNBC, 'I’m not 100% saying we should regulate it, but if anyone is going to, it seems like it’s something we should consider.' The volatility in prices, he noted, 'is amazing.' The CNBC anchors grilled him pretty aggressively but I don't think he was showing all his cards during the interview. It looks to me like the CFTC is looking at bitcoins very closely. It was instructive that Chilton was able to provide the penname of the founder of bitcoins, Satoshi Nakamoto, off the top of his head." Continue reading →
"Amid the incense, cheap art and herbal remedies for sale in Union Square in Manhattan on Monday, a very different kind of product was changing hands: bitcoins. Just feet from the park’s statue of George Washington, a crowd of young men gathered on Monday afternoon to buy and sell the digital, crypto-currency. The men – and there were only men – were brought together by an online posting from Josh Rossi, 31, a bitcoin aficionado who works in technology at the World Trade Financial Group. He had proposed what he called Project Buttonwood, a reference to the where the New York Stock Exchange had its beginning in 1792." Continue reading →
"Bitcoin 'is for sure something we need to explore', Bart Chilton, one of the five commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) told the Financial Times. Said Mr Chilton: 'It’s not monopoly money we’re talking about here – real people can have real risk in these instruments, and we need to ensure that we protect markets and consumers, even in what at first blush appear to be ‘out there’ transactions.' In essence, we’re talking about a type of shadow currency, and there is more than a colourable argument to be made that derivative products relating to Bitcoin falls squarely in our jurisdiction.'" Continue reading →