Mad Statists

John Hussman: Psychological Whiplash

"Investors who refused to take the speculative bait may have been the first casualties of the Fed’s policies. But now, it is investors who remain fully invested in obscenely overvalued equities and junk credit that have become the unwitting dupes in this game. If the Fed cannot force people to abandon saving behavior with zero interest rates, some members of the FOMC have openly talked about driving interest rates to negative rates to 'stimulate' spending. This is not economics, it is megalomaniacal sociopathy. Centuries of economic history warn that this speculative episode, too, will end in a collapse." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJohn Hussman: Psychological Whiplash

Yellen Says Negative Rates On The Table “If Outlook Worsened”

"As the market now diligently calculates the suddenly surging odds of a December rate hike, here's Yellen with a preview of what will happen once the rate hike cycle is aborted, just as it was aborted in Japan in August of 2000 when the BOJ also decided to send a signal how much stronger the economy is by hiking 25 bps, only to cut 7 months later and to proceed to monetize not only all net Japanese debt issuance a decade later, but to hold half of all equity ETFs. The good news: YELLEN SAYS SHE DOESN'T SEE NEED FOR NEGATIVE RATES NOW; YELLEN SAYS FED SEES ECONOMY ON STEADY PATH OF IMPROVEMENT; Because when have the Fed's forecasts before ever been wrong." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingYellen Says Negative Rates On The Table “If Outlook Worsened”

Living with Venezuela’s high inflation

"As the world watches the Greek debt crisis unfold, the economy of a country in another corner of the planet is also struggling, and some experts are even trying to draw similarities. Venezuela has the world's highest inflation, leaving many facing shortages and soaring prices. While the government of president Nicolas Maduro says this is the result of an 'economic war by capitalists and the United States against the country's socialist revolution', critics say the high inflation rate is simply showing the government's economic incompetence. The BBC's Daniel Pardo explains how inflation affects what Venezuelans buy every day, like the popular snack called Arepa." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingLiving with Venezuela’s high inflation

India gold smuggling at all-time high, despite Nepali kingpin’s death

"In two years--since government increased duty on gold to 10% to rein in a yawning current account deficit—gold smuggling has grown by 900%. That as an accepted principle seizures could be less than 10% of actual smuggling, the figures look even more ominous. Sources say gold has also begun to be smuggled in ever unique ways and from rather unexpected corners. There is a silver lining to the grim story though. There is an unexpected drop in Nepal which had seen a massive spurt in gold smuggling in the past couple of years. The reason: the kingpin of illicit yellow metal trade in the Himlayan nation died under the rubble of his house in Kathmandu during the recent quake." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndia gold smuggling at all-time high, despite Nepali kingpin’s death

The Fed Chairs Have a Habit of Hazing

"Paul Volcker took over as Chair of the Fed in August 1979. A recession officially began five months later. This was the worst recession since the Great Depression. In August 1987 Alan Greenspan took over the Fed. Two months later 'Black Monday' occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow dropped 22.6% that day alone–the worst one-day crash in history. In February 2006 Ben Bernanke became Fed chair. The worst recession since the Great Depression officially began in December 2007, and you may recall there was some trouble in the financial markets in September 2008… In January 2014 Janet Yellen became Fed chair." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Fed Chairs Have a Habit of Hazing

American Airlines cuts Venezuela flights after Maduro threat

"American Airlines says it is cutting almost 80% of its flights to Venezuela from next month. Tight foreign currency controls make it difficult for foreign airlines to repatriate money from ticket sales in Venezuela. The authorities have restricted access to dollars and want to make them more expensive to purchase, which may lead to losses for companies that are still waiting for cash from as far back as 2012. In January, Ecuadorean airline Tame also suspended flights to Venezuela, demanding $43m (£26m) in overdue payments for tickets. President Nicolas Maduro said at the time that airlines that reduced their operations in Venezuela would face 'severe measures'." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingAmerican Airlines cuts Venezuela flights after Maduro threat

When Zero’s Too High: Time preference versus central bankers

"Central banking has taken interest rate reduction to its absurd conclusion. If observers thought the ECB had run out of room by holding its deposit rate at zero, Mario Draghi proved he is creative, cutting the ECB’s deposit rate to minus 0.10 percent, making it the first major central bank to institute a negative rate. Can a central-bank edict force present goods to no longer have a premium over future goods? Armed with high-powered math and models dancing in their heads, modern central bankers believe they are only limited by their imaginations. More than half a decade of zero interest rates has not lifted anyone from poverty or created any jobs—it has simply caused more malinvestment." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWhen Zero’s Too High: Time preference versus central bankers

On The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

"The current plan is that–so long as the economy doesn’t crash–the Fed will taper to $25 billion in August, then $15 billion in September, and then wipe out the remaining $15 billion in October. Here’s a chart showing the behavior of the S&P500 versus the monetary base. It used to be the case that the stock market bounced around with little relation to the Fed’s asset purchases. But since early 2009 and the introduction of QE programs, the stock market and the Fed’s bond buying have moved in virtual lockstep. Let me ask you this: Do you think the S&P should be hitting all-time highs because of how great the underlying economic fundamentals have been the last few years?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingOn The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

Tax Collectors Grow More Aggressive; Payers Caught in the Middle

"Her Majesty's Revenue & Customs doesn't have enough power, or so the British Parliament is told. HMRC wants to be both judge and jury when it comes to recalcitrant taxpayers. It wants to the ability to 'raid bank accounts' and to do so without a court warrant. What comes across clearly in both the IRS stance and in the requests by the HRMC is a certain level of arrogance that is magnified by modern communication facilities. The pushback against intrusive tax collection is growing, even as agency demands for more power and revenue are expanding as well." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingTax Collectors Grow More Aggressive; Payers Caught in the Middle

Japan consumer price growth at 32-year high

"Consumer prices in Japan rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in May, the fastest pace in 32 years, as the effect of the sales tax hike from 5% to 8% started to be felt. The price growth in May follows a 3.2% jump in April and is a big boost for Japan's attempt to trigger inflation. The country's central bank has set a target of a 2% inflation rate. The measures, which include boosting the country's money supply, have started to have an impact and consumer prices in the country have now risen for 12 months in a row. Policymakers have been hoping that consumers and business will be encouraged to start spending and not hold back on purchases, as they may have to pay more later on." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJapan consumer price growth at 32-year high