Money For Nothing

Loads of Debt: A Global Ailment With Few Cures

"As central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have printed trillions of dollars and euros, markets in stocks and bonds, as well as other types of assets, have responded optimistically, sometimes reaching highs that were unthinkable seven years ago in the depths of the financial crisis. Central banks can make debt less expensive by pushing down interest rates. Crucially, though, they cannot slash debt levels to bring much quicker relief to borrowers. In fact, lower interest rates can persuade some borrowers to take on more debt. Many countries are now in a position where their governments and companies live in fear of an increase in interest rates." Continue reading →

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The $4 Trillion Money Printing Press

"One pandemic, two great depressions, 11 major wars, and 44 recessions. Four U.S. presidents were assassinated while in office. Hundreds of thousands of businesses went bankrupt; tens of millions of Americans lost their jobs. Did the U.S. government respond to many of these events with countermeasures? Of course. But never once had the U.S. government resorted to such extreme abuses of its money-printing power as it did in 2008-10. Now, all that tradition of leadership and discipline was abandoned — all for the sake of perpetuating America’s addiction to spending, borrowing, and speculative bubbles." Continue reading →

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John Hussman: All Their Eggs in Janet’s Basket

"Investors whose strategy is to follow the Fed – in the belief that stocks will advance as long as the Fed does not raise interest rates – are free to place all their eggs in Janet’s basket. On the other hand, for investors whose strategy is historically informed by factors that have reliably distinguished market advances from collapses over a century of history, our suggestion is to consider a stronger defense. Our greatest successes have been when our investment outlook was aligned with valuations and market internals, and our greatest disappointments have been when it was not. Both factors are unfavorable at present, and our outlook is aligned accordingly." Continue reading →

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The Logical Conclusion of the Modern, Monetary Argument

"One of the most terrible things about the globalization of finance, money and industry is that it homogenizes booms and busts. There is literally nowhere to go. As economic centralization continues, these cycles will only worsen. These days in the West – and certainly in Washington – Republicans are sure they can mandate a technocratic interest-rate rule that will restrain the Fed from doing inordinate damage to the economy. Ironically, Democrats argue for more flexibility and less government interference regarding money. This would be admirable from a free-market standpoint except that they are arguing on behalf of a MONOPOLY facility. As usual, both parties get it wrong." Continue reading →

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The Feds Step Up Utility Growth

"Federal regulators’ recent move to change the criteria used to calculate regulated utilities’ allowed returns may be a small victory for income investors. Over the past few years, regulators pared utility profits in response to ultra-low Treasury rates. But investors and energy executives have long argued that these historically low rates are a market distortion created by Federal Reserve stimulus and, therefore, do not accurately reflect utilities’ actual operating environment. The order in late June by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the agency that regulates the transmission and wholesale sale of electricity in interstate commerce, finally acknowledged this reality." Continue reading →

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The Fed’s Dreaded Dilemma: A Weak Economy Plus Inflation

"The fact that the Fed’s PCE index is showing inflationary pressure is significant, since it is essentially designed to lowball price increases. The CPI gives a 31 percent weighting to shelter costs and a 17 percent weighting to transportation (read as rent and gasoline), which the PCE basically cuts in half. By reducing the volatility of its preferred inflation gauge, the Fed essentially gives itself the leeway to maintain a looser policy longer. But the fact that the PCE is on the rise leaves the Fed in a conundrum, having said for years now that it would act when inflation reaches an annualized 2 percent, a level that is fast approaching." Continue reading →

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Federal Reserve likely to end QE stimulus program in October

"The Federal Reserve is set to end its economic stimulus program in October, bringing to an end the controversial five-year-old scheme even as officials said there were signs that the US economy was still in trouble. Officials have been winding down their monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities since January, but had not set an end date for the scheme. Controversial from the outset, QE was designed to keep long-term interest rates down and encourage investors to back stocks or corporate debt in order to stimulate the economy. Stock markets have hit record highs under QE yet the unemployment rate remains high and there are continuing signs of weakness." Continue reading →

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Corporate Bonds Are The IEDs Of Monetary Central Planning

"The Fed’s sustained, heavy-handed financial repression has generated the greatest ever scramble for yield, and it is now entering its seventh year. Consequently, speculators and bond fund managers are all in the same side of the boat. And all but the most intrepid traders are scared to death to short the Fed, fearing that any day it might uncork yet another round of bond market repression. So we have basically a highly artificial one-way market in corporate bonds—both investment grade and high yield. Very recently yields in the latter touched an all-time low of 4.87%, meaning that after inflation and taxes there is virtually no room for losses on securities that are called 'junk bonds' for a reason." Continue reading →

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Fed fears risks posed by exit tools; plan almost done

"The sheer magnitude of the amounts of money used to combat the crisis - $2.6 trillion sitting at the Fed as bank reserves and $4.2 trillion held by the Fed in various securities - may complicate the U.S. central bank's ability to control its target interest rate once the decision is made that it should be raised. The Fed has neared consensus that its workhorse tool will be the interest it pays banks on excess reserves on deposit at the Fed. Another tool would have a similar impact but apply more broadly, using overnight repurchase agreements that would let money market funds and other institutions as well as banks essentially make short-term deposits at the Fed." Continue reading →

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Japan economics minister warns of premature QE exit

"Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari warned that it would be premature for the Bank of Japan to consider an exit strategy from its massive stimulus programme, voicing hope instead for further monetary easing if achievement of its inflation goal falls behind schedule. The central bank has kept policy unchanged since deploying an intense burst of monetary stimulus in April last year, when it pledged to double base money via aggressive asset purchases to accelerate inflation to 2 percent in roughly two years. With Japan only halfway to meeting that target, the BOJ is set to keep its stimulus plan intact well into next year." Continue reading →

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