News Commentary

Europe’s Pain is the World’s Gain

"Last week the ECB announced that it was cutting its headline lending rate to 0.15 percent and taking its deposit rate to negative 0.10 percent. That means banks must pay the ECB to hold their money, a move the ECB hopes will spur lending. It will also make $545 billion worth of inexpensive loans available to banks with the caveat that they lend more to the private sector. First tranche euro zone banks will be permitted to borrow up to 7% of the value of their corporate loans with additional tranches of funding [on the way]. While the goal of easing is to improve economic conditions at home, the money will ultimately flow to where it can find the greatest returns, as our own experience has shown." Continue reading →

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An Ever Deeper EU to Join the Wall Street Party?

"The central bankers have reason to inflate. The European experiment is precarious and economies around the world are teetering. Part of Mr. Andors's speech, no doubt, has to do with creating the possibility, rhetorically at least, that the EU, too, can join in the mass inflation building around the world. This no doubt seems the only way out for those who have engineered the current economic cul de sac. They will print and print until the danger is past and stock markets have traveled through the roof. Wealth is to be destroyed and pensioners bankrupted, but the system itself is to be perpetuated and expanded. It continues to be a cynical exercise in creating haves and have-nots." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: The Japanese Will Learn to Tango

"For nearly a quarter century, Japan’s diligent savers have funded its government deficits. Now, the savers are retiring. They need their money back. At the same time, Japan’s trade surplus is disappearing. Where will the money come to keep the lights on? Nowhere. Already, there are days when scarcely a single buyer steps up to buy Japanese bonds. The central bank of Japan takes up the slack. And as people get older (spending their savings rather than adding to them) and as the country’s current account surplus disappears (Japan is not the export powerhouse it once was), more slack appears. The Bank of Japan will come to the rescue, of course." Continue reading →

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ECB: Bank With Us … and We’ll Charge You Interest

"This morning, the ECB took the radical stepof cutting its deposit rate to negative 0.1 percent. It also lowered its benchmark lending rate (similar to the federal funds rate the U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising and lowering for decades) to 0.15 percent from 0.25 percent. Furthermore, it tried to boost the mortgage and business loan businesses by offering to buy Asset Backed Securities (ABS) and by launching more Long-Term Refinancing Operations. While central banks in Sweden and Denmark took tentative steps in the direction of negative rates, the ECB’s move is unprecedented because no major world central bank has ever tried it before." Continue reading →

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Fed Money Pumping Brings Results: The Affluent Society Returns

"Once again, monetary inflation is being confused with high-end entrepreneurialism. Ludwig von Mises, the great Austrian economist, was not fooled about the wealth effect of modern finance and, indeed, with his colleague FA Hayek dealt a devastating blow to the ever-reoccurring idea that 'this time it's different.' It's not different. Never. It just depends on where you are in the business cycle. Like a bad penny, this dream often recurs when the Fed has dumped enough money into the economy. These funds slosh around in the recesses of commercial banks and financial firms and then gradually find their way into stock markets and thence into high-end real estate." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: This Should Make Every American Angry…

"When the price of money goes down banks’ profit margins go up; by moving to zero interest rates, the Fed handed them higher earnings. And by guaranteeing the debt of the weakest institutions, the Fed gave big bonuses to the worst managers. Now, the alcohol is taking effect. All around the world markets stagger. Economies slur their words. Investors have severe memory loss. Businessmen can’t tell up from down. And the poor consumer gets a headache every time he checks his bank balance. Some people have access to the free money. Others don’t. Those with the access tend to be in the financial elite. It is no wonder the rich get richer; the game is rigged." Continue reading →

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The Strange Tale of Swiss Banking – And What It Means for You

"It is interesting that remaining private banks are switching from partnerships to corporations. Judicially enforced corporate personhood distorts markets and enables market behavior that would not otherwise be feasible or tolerated. What remains most puzzling is that this most powerful industry composed primarily of private Swiss banks allowed itself to be virtually ruined in a few years' time. The precedent has been set, however. One nation may indeed interfere judicially in the affairs of another and force compliance, part of a wider assertion of privilege by a US government that is attempting to turn banking systems around the world into part of the US tax collection effort." Continue reading →

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Congrats grads! That’ll be $29,400

"The Class of 2012 graduated with an AVERAGE financial hangover of $29,400. In more expensive parts of the country like the Northeast, four-year degree students owed even more – almost $34,000. We’re not just talking about a handful of students, either. More than 7 in 10 graduates had at least some debt when they got their degrees. The growth in debt is far outpacing the growth in income, too, rising at a rate of about 6 percent per year over the past half-decade. All told, student loan debt now totals around $1.1 TRILLION. That’s almost quadruple the level of a decade earlier. It’s now the single biggest category of consumer debt outside of home mortgages." Continue reading →

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Hawks Take Flight: Why the Fed’s Hypocritical Dialectic Continues

"The Fed's monetary expansion ended in 1929. The 1950s equity rise ended with a bust in the early 1960s. The Nifty Fifty fad ended with the Crash of 1969. The market recovery of the 1970s ended in 1982. The next crash was in 1987. In 1994, an expansion gave way to a recession. A great tech expansion turned sour in 2001. A housing bubble deflated violently in 2008, not just in the US but around the world. And that is where we are now. This expansion has been driven relentlessly upward for some five-plus years. Another year or two and this latest 'Wall Street Party' will be finished. We anticipate a downturn that will be as violent or even more so than 2008." Continue reading →

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Why Are Bond Yields Falling as Stocks Rally?

"One of the most striking features of 2014 has been falling Treasury yields in the wake of the Fed’s tapering of QE. The standard theory goes that, as the Fed withdraws support for longer-dated bonds, bond prices will drop (as demand falls) and yields (which move inversely to prices) will rise. So much for standard theory… In addition to the divergence between large caps and small caps (which we wrote about here and here), the divergence between falling bond yields and rising large-cap stock prices is another sign that the rally in the S&P 500 and the Dow may not be as strong as some believe." Continue reading →

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