Pretense Of Knowledge

Wholesale Prices in U.S. Climb by Most in a Year; Food Prices Surge

"The 0.6 percent increase in the producer price index was the biggest since September 2012 and exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, figures from the Labor Department showed today. Over the past 12 months, costs climbed 2.1 percent. Food prices surged by the most in three years. Wholesale food expenses increased 2.7 percent in April, the biggest jump since February 2011, led by an 8.4 percent surge in the costs of meats that was the biggest since 2003. A confluence of events ranging from drought in the West to porcine epidemic diarrhea is pushing up prices for beef, pork and other foods." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWholesale Prices in U.S. Climb by Most in a Year; Food Prices Surge

Yellen Concerned Fed Models Fail to Predict Price Moves

"Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is concerned that the standard models central banks use to forecast inflation may be broken. Behind her disquiet: the failure of the models to foresee the path of prices in the U.S. during the last recession and its aftermath and in Japan during its deflationary period from 1998 to 2012. U.S. inflation has been higher than the simulations suggested, while Japanese price declines proved more persistent. Yellen alluded to her concerns in a speech last week, saying the Fed has to 'watch carefully' to see if inflation picks up as the central bank projects -- and hopes -- during the next few years." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingYellen Concerned Fed Models Fail to Predict Price Moves

Fed Tapers Another $10 Billion, Expecting Rebound From Grim Q1

"The U.S. economy stalled out in Q1, as GDP rose at a 0.1% annual rate, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. But with other data showing rebounding growth in the spring, the Federal Reserve voted to taper its bond-buys by another $10 billion. The Fed's decision, widely expected, cited ongoing improvement in the economy. But as previously signaled, the central bank left interest rates untouched and pledged to keep policy easy as long as the economy remained shaky. Residential investment fell hard for a second straight quarter, and business fixed investment declined at a 5.5% rate. Both sectors were expected to help lead the economy in 2014." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Tapers Another $10 Billion, Expecting Rebound From Grim Q1

Five+ Years of Fed Futility Laid Bare for All to See

"It has been five-and-a-half years since Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and other casualties of the credit crisis imploded! We’ve been subjected to more than a half-decade of the Fed’s supposedly useful and appropriate medicine … Unlimited money printing. Zero percent interest rates. Gargantuan bank bailouts. Deliberate attempts to inflate stock and house prices. And for what? More than $3 TRILLION in extra padding on the Fed balance sheet doesn’t look like it’s done much for the broad economy. GDP grew just 0.1 percent in the first quarter. Even that dismal reading was propped up by a massive surge of $43.3 billion in health care spending tied to the Obamacare rollout." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFive+ Years of Fed Futility Laid Bare for All to See

“Everything we are told about deflation is a lie”

"Messrs Yellen, Draghi et al should be careful what they wish for. Inflation targeting is hardly a precise science. Achieving an entirely arbitrary 2% inflation level is bad enough for savers on fixed incomes when deposit rates are close enough to zero as to make no difference, but markets have a tendency to overshoot. Most government bond markets are clearly overbought – but in a QE world given fresh impetus by the looming arrival of the ECB, overbought markets can become even more overbought. When we don’t claim to understand the underlying dynamics (political) or the final destination (though we have our own fears), it’s much better simply not to play." Continue reading →

Continue Reading“Everything we are told about deflation is a lie”

Bank of Japan To Double ETF Purchases in Next Round of Easing

"Japan’s central bank will probably double purchases of exchange-traded funds in a second round of monetary easing under Governor Haruhiko Kuroda anticipated in coming months, a Bloomberg News survey of economists shows. The Bank of Japan, which tomorrow is forecast to leave unchanged a 60 to 70 trillion yen target for yearly expansion of the monetary base, will increase annual ETF buys to 2 trillion yen, according to a survey of 36 analysts. Evidence of budding inflation expectations among Japan’s companies may restrain more ambitious plans, such as open-ended ETF purchases, even as the economy slows because of this month’s sales-tax increase." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBank of Japan To Double ETF Purchases in Next Round of Easing

European central banks mull bolder moves to prevent low inflation

"Asked what tools the ECB has remaining, Mr. Liikanen, who has headed Finland’s central bank since 2004 and is on the ECB’s 24-member governing council, cited a negative deposit rate as well as additional loans to banks and asset purchases. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann didn’t rule out large-scale asset purchases, known as quantitative easing. Mr. Liikanen also said it was an option for the ECB and wouldn’t run afoul of rules prohibiting the central bank from financing governments. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have aggressively used the policy to keep inflation from falling too low." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingEuropean central banks mull bolder moves to prevent low inflation

Cheap Printing vs. Expensive Drilling

"Yellen explained that the Fed helps people secure employment 'by influencing interest rates.' She followed, 'Although we work through financial markets, our goal is to help Main Street, not Wall Street.' Her predecessor used the same rhetoric in 2012. 'This is a Main Street policy. Many people own stocks directly or indirectly. The issue here is whether or not improving asset prices generally will make people more willing to spend.' Oil, unlike the Fed’s fiat dollars, can’t be created out of nothing. And, job or no job, people are driving. Mrs. Yellen tells crowds, Don’t worry be happy, your job will be printed anytime now. Let’s just say, for those with a job to go to, getting there will not be getting easier." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingCheap Printing vs. Expensive Drilling

Fund Manager Jeremy Grantham Blasts the Fed

"The Fed can manipulate stock prices. That's perhaps the only thing they can do. But why would you want to get an advantage from the wealth effect when you know you are going to have to give it all back when the Fed reverses course. At the same time, the Fed encourages steady increasing leverage and more asset bubbles. It's clear to most investing professionals that they can benefit from an asymmetric bet here. The Fed gives them very cheap leverage on the upside, and then bails them out on the downside. And you should have more confidence of that now. The only ones who have really benefited from QE are hedge fund managers." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFund Manager Jeremy Grantham Blasts the Fed

UK financial official: Monetize state debt when deflation risks persist

"There is no need for central banks’ balance sheets to shrink. They could stay permanently larger; and, for some countries, permanently bigger central-bank balance sheets will help reduce public-debt burdens. Even when permanent monetization occurs — as it almost certainly will in Japan and possibly elsewhere — it may remain forever the policy that dare not speak its name. Such reticence may serve a useful purpose. But it must not blind central banks and governments to the full range of policy tools available to address today’s severe debt overhangs." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingUK financial official: Monetize state debt when deflation risks persist