regime uncertainty

Swiss Bank Refuses Request for Cash Withdrawal, Backed By Central Bank

"A Swiss pension fund manager calculated that he could save his clients a substantial amount of money by withdrawing cash from his fund's bank account, which was yielding a negative interest return, and depositing the cash in an insured vault. Exercising his fiduciary responsibility, he notified his bank of an impending large withdrawal of CHF. The bank rebuffed the fund manager's request: 'We are sorry, that within the time period specified, no solution corresponding to your expectations could be found.' One banking expert argues that the bank's action 'is most definitely not legal' because the pension fund holds a 'sight account,' which gives the holder the right to withdraw cash on demand." Continue reading →

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The Feds Step Up Utility Growth

"Federal regulators’ recent move to change the criteria used to calculate regulated utilities’ allowed returns may be a small victory for income investors. Over the past few years, regulators pared utility profits in response to ultra-low Treasury rates. But investors and energy executives have long argued that these historically low rates are a market distortion created by Federal Reserve stimulus and, therefore, do not accurately reflect utilities’ actual operating environment. The order in late June by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the agency that regulates the transmission and wholesale sale of electricity in interstate commerce, finally acknowledged this reality." Continue reading →

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The Fed Chairs Have a Habit of Hazing

"Paul Volcker took over as Chair of the Fed in August 1979. A recession officially began five months later. This was the worst recession since the Great Depression. In August 1987 Alan Greenspan took over the Fed. Two months later 'Black Monday' occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow dropped 22.6% that day alone–the worst one-day crash in history. In February 2006 Ben Bernanke became Fed chair. The worst recession since the Great Depression officially began in December 2007, and you may recall there was some trouble in the financial markets in September 2008… In January 2014 Janet Yellen became Fed chair." Continue reading →

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Fed Hawks Want Rate Hikes Soon

"A trio of inflation hawks at the Federal Reserve — Richard Fisher, Esther George and Charles Plosser — believe it's about time to take the punch bowl away. The three regional Fed bank presidents are on a mission to urge their colleagues to take a tougher monetary policy stance, CNNMoney reported. If they are successful, Americans would be hit with higher rates on mortgages, small business loans and credit cards, and many on Wall Street fear bonds and stocks would also suffer. But the Fed hawks believe the alternative to tighter policy could be high inflation and more dangerous asset bubbles." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: Is Ms Yellen making history?

"See how easy investment analysis is. Even a Fed chairman can do it. 'Get out of social media and biotech,' she practically urged investors. 'Buy blue chips and the broad market.' In this, Ms. Yellen is not just making headlines; she's making history. As far as we know, no other Fed chairman has ever offered sector analysis. We'd like to see her portfolio. Here is a woman who not only observes markets; she moves them. In the event, investors sold the sectors she warned against, and bought the broad market...sending the Dow back to record territory. What a fortune you could make if you knew what she'd say next! And what a dope you'd be if you believed her." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: Is Ms Yellen making history?

The Fed’s Dreaded Dilemma: A Weak Economy Plus Inflation

"The fact that the Fed’s PCE index is showing inflationary pressure is significant, since it is essentially designed to lowball price increases. The CPI gives a 31 percent weighting to shelter costs and a 17 percent weighting to transportation (read as rent and gasoline), which the PCE basically cuts in half. By reducing the volatility of its preferred inflation gauge, the Fed essentially gives itself the leeway to maintain a looser policy longer. But the fact that the PCE is on the rise leaves the Fed in a conundrum, having said for years now that it would act when inflation reaches an annualized 2 percent, a level that is fast approaching." Continue reading →

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Fed Still on Red Alert

"It’s bad enough that central bankers create money out of nowhere to buy bonds. Now it turns out that’s not all they’re buying. A study by global research firm Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) states global public investors 'as a whole appear to have built up their investments in publicly quoted equities by at least $1 [trillion] in recent years.' The percentage of financial advisors who are bullish on the stock market jumped to 62.2%, the fifth straight week this indicator has been above the key 55% level. Other noteworthy tops came in August 1987 (60.8%), October 2007 (62%), and December 2004 (62.9%)." Continue reading →

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On The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

"The current plan is that–so long as the economy doesn’t crash–the Fed will taper to $25 billion in August, then $15 billion in September, and then wipe out the remaining $15 billion in October. Here’s a chart showing the behavior of the S&P500 versus the monetary base. It used to be the case that the stock market bounced around with little relation to the Fed’s asset purchases. But since early 2009 and the introduction of QE programs, the stock market and the Fed’s bond buying have moved in virtual lockstep. Let me ask you this: Do you think the S&P should be hitting all-time highs because of how great the underlying economic fundamentals have been the last few years?" Continue reading →

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Federal Reserve likely to end QE stimulus program in October

"The Federal Reserve is set to end its economic stimulus program in October, bringing to an end the controversial five-year-old scheme even as officials said there were signs that the US economy was still in trouble. Officials have been winding down their monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities since January, but had not set an end date for the scheme. Controversial from the outset, QE was designed to keep long-term interest rates down and encourage investors to back stocks or corporate debt in order to stimulate the economy. Stock markets have hit record highs under QE yet the unemployment rate remains high and there are continuing signs of weakness." Continue reading →

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Corporate Bonds Are The IEDs Of Monetary Central Planning

"The Fed’s sustained, heavy-handed financial repression has generated the greatest ever scramble for yield, and it is now entering its seventh year. Consequently, speculators and bond fund managers are all in the same side of the boat. And all but the most intrepid traders are scared to death to short the Fed, fearing that any day it might uncork yet another round of bond market repression. So we have basically a highly artificial one-way market in corporate bonds—both investment grade and high yield. Very recently yields in the latter touched an all-time low of 4.87%, meaning that after inflation and taxes there is virtually no room for losses on securities that are called 'junk bonds' for a reason." Continue reading →

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