regime uncertainty

A Propaganda War

"We’ve long imagined that only the state and its central bankers can issue money. The Bitcoin protocol directly challenges that notion. Most importantly, unlike similar inventions before it, Bitcoin can only be stifled. It can never be stopped. Its importance is unequivocal. As Bitcoin continues to spread globally, we, as a community, must grapple with a very challenging and unsettling question of principle: should Bitcoin actively engage the apparatus of state? Bitcoin is getting political. Parties are forming. unSystem, through its Dark Wallet, has ostensibly drawn a line in the sand. There is much at stake. A battle is now on for the protocol and the hearts and minds of we, the 99%." Continue reading →

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Virtual cash is no threat to the real thing, Bank of Canada paper says

"The case of Bitcoin – a fully convertible, pure digital currency – is more problematic. Earlier this year, the U.S. Treasury department started requiring that all virtual transactions worth more than $10,000 (U.S.) be reported to authorities to prevent virtual currencies being used for money laundering and other illegal purposes. The authors don’t reach a firm conclusion on whether governments should crack down on virtual currencies, pointing out that regulation might stifle innovation. At the same time, they warn that 'multiple competing platforms creates inefficiency' that will dissuade people from embracing them." Continue reading →

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Black Market Dollar Exchange Sparks Argentina Luxury Sales Crackdown

"Argentines who buy a car valued at more than 350,000 pesos ($58,600) will now be required to justify the transaction with the Financial Information Unit, the nation’s money-laundering watchdog, according to a Nov. 11 decree. Argentina is boosting its currency controls as consumers faced with 25 percent annual inflation turn to everything from luxury cars to gold and bitcoins as a store of savings. With the black market offering holders of undeclared U.S. currency 3.8 pesos more than the official exchange rate of 5.9764 pesos per dollar, demand for premium cars from Volkswagen AG’s Porsche and Bayerische Motoren Werke AG is causing a 33 percent jump in imports this year." Continue reading →

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Bitcoin’s UK Future Looks Bleak

"It's depressing that firstly key government departments have not apparently to the best of my knowledge even discussed this potentially revolutionary technology. It's even more depressing that in a democratic society, discussion of policy regarding this technology is conducted in secrecy. HMRC's VAT legislation is already outdated in many areas especially regarding online trade. My confidence that they will appear from behind these doors with legislation based on a firm understanding of Bitcoin is low. These responses also indicate glaring misunderstandings of what Bitcoin is, hilariously the Bank of England wrote back to tell me 'There have been no meetings held at the BoE attended by Bitcoin'." Continue reading →

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Sudan devalues currency by 30 percent amid dollar shortages

"Sudan's economy has been in turmoil since South Sudan's secession in 2011 took away of three-quarters of oil production. Oil was the driver of the economy and source for dollars needed for food and other essential imports. The central bank has been trying to bridge a ballooning gap with the black market rate where one dollar costs 7.8 pounds as import firms struggle to get their hand on hard currency. The black market rate has become the benchmark for banks and firms. The secretive central bank tends not to announce devaluations, which are embarrassing for the government, which denies there is a shortage of hard currency." Continue reading →

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Argentine Stocks Rise on Speculation Country to Boost Reserves

"The central bank’s board approved a resolution to restrict local lending to the seven largest grains exporters, forcing them to obtain foreign currency financing, which may bring $2 billion into Argentina by year end, said two people familiar with the plan, who asked not to be named because the resolution hasn’t been made public. Reserves have tumbled $10 billion to $33.3 billion this year to a six-year low as the nation increases energy imports and uses the funds to pay foreign debt. Banks will only be able to lend 0.3 percent of their total lending portfolio to companies that export 75 percent of their output and have more than 200 million pesos of outstanding bank loans, the people said." Continue reading →

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Russia Will Probably Hold Rates After Surprise Inflation Jump

"Russia’s central bank will probably refrain from cutting interest rates for a 14th month after a surprise pickup in consumer-price growth last month hurt its struggle to slow inflation to within its target band. Policy makers led by Elvira Nabiullina, who took over as central bank chairman in June, have kept interest rates steady since September 2012 even as the economy of the world’s largest energy exporter has its worst slowdown in four years. Rising food prices after rain delayed the grain harvest and Russia banned pork imports from Belarus. The economy grew 1.2 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter, the worst result since the last three months of 2009." Continue reading →

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The Rise and Fall of the World’s Largest Bitcoin Exchange

"Mt. Gox evolved into a reliable marketplace for buying and selling bitcoins, now the world’s most popular digital currency. By one estimate, Karpeles has made over $8 million plus 345,000 bitcoins (at current rates: $86 million) swapping bitcoins for dollars and yen and other federal currencies. Karpeles and his company are a metaphor for the bitcoin world as a whole. Created by an anonymous computer scientist, the digital currency rose to prominence after it was embraced by software geeks across the globe. But now, as its influence continues to grow, these young, idealistic hacker types are running into the government regulators who control the existing financial system." Continue reading →

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Economy Coming in High and Hard

"We're not certain that this bull market – if they manage to ignite it, and it looks like they will – is going to act like a normal market from a historical perspective. We figure the elements are in place for them to boost averages powerfully but this is still a kind of pre-op coronary patient ... being kept alive by big infusions of adrenaline. The JOBS Act is in place and the product is in the pipeline. The small cap and IPO markets are primed. Fracking promises cheap and plentiful energy – that's what they say, anyway. Somebody's going to make an awful lot of money – and fast – if this market goes up as planned. But it could go down again fast and hard. Timing will be important." Continue reading →

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The Markets Are Rigged! How to Opt Out and Still Profit

"Call me nostalgic, but I remember a time when a bad jobs outlook sent the large-cap companies down, not up. The economy is weak, so a company's profit expectations suffer. The logic makes sense. Today, however, we live in the topsy-turvy world of government-manipulated markets, where such asinine statements make complete sense… until they don't. The problem with a market that lives at the teat of Washington's policies is that it can be reversed in mere moments. One election. One popular news story. One social media outcry. One back-channel policy. One bloody coup d'état. That's all it takes." Continue reading →

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