Monthly Archives: September 2013

Jack Lew: Debt Ceiling Drama To Return in October

"Oh, debt ceiling battles… what wonderful political theater you are. The next battle is coming this fall, although no one seems quite sure when. Regardless, it will have an impact on markets, as before, and could send gold shooting skyward. Both parties are expected to dig their trenches even deeper this time… making the fireworks even more explosive than usual. Since the gridlock in Congress seems unlikely to change, expect this to become a new annual national pastime… something like D.C.’s version of the Super Bowl. Get out your popcorn… and don’t forget to keep an eye on gold prices. Remember this chart." Continue reading →

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Bloody Scenes from the Next Episode of Economic Crisis

"Stand by for round two of the global economic crisis, coming soon to a screen near you. It’s going to be as bloody and chaotic as the scenes on your TV from Cairo and Damascus. Yet, as ever, the chorus on Wall Street manages to keep a straight face and sing the same tune while robbing investors blind. Just listen to them on Bloomberg or CNBC and you would think the Fed has this all under control and the U.S. economy is recovering. Now, admittedly, economists are all facing the wrong way too. There is hardly a man or woman willing to stick their neck out and say the inflation-distorted figures that purport to show a recovery are turning in the opposite direction." Continue reading →

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Near the Debt Ceiling, No One Can Hear You Scream

"Let’s put these clues together. We have another fiscal crisis imminent with a looming debt ceiling drama. We have a Federal Reserve that is already doing a huge and unsustainable amount of 'stimulus' buying. And we have an economy far weaker than it’s been in more than a decade despite the bluster over GDP. The bigger concern is that the market doesn’t have any of this priced in at all. It’s true that August was the worst month for stocks since May 2012. Yet the market fell just 3.1% and is only 4.5% off its all-time high. That’s barely a scratch." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingNear the Debt Ceiling, No One Can Hear You Scream

If You Want To Know Why Things Are Falling Apart, Look at Total Debt

"It's easy to confuse trends and cycles. The Keynesian Cargo Cultists believe that we're in a cyclical downturn that can be 'cured' with more debt-based spending, i.e. worshiping their false god of aggregate demand. They cannot comprehend that we're not in a business-cycle recession, we are in a long-term trend where additional debt undermines the system as the positive returns on that debt turn negative." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIf You Want To Know Why Things Are Falling Apart, Look at Total Debt

Hopeless Savers: 0.26% on Money Markets

"The plight of savers in America is hopeless. We know that price inflation is over 2% per year. What do investors get in a money market fund? A pathetic 0.26%. Then they pay income taxes on this 0.26%. What if they do not want to tie up their money for a year? Then they get 0.12%. Before taxes. What about interest-bearing checking accounts in an FDIC-insured bank? These pay 0.05%. Let’s be honest. Let’s round it off (after taxes) to zero. The saver is falling behind. The rate of price inflation is eating into the saver’s net worth by at least 2.9% per year. How much money is deposited in money market accounts. About $2.6 trillion. This is up by $2.6 billion this week. This is a recovery?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingHopeless Savers: 0.26% on Money Markets

Investors (Suckers) Say They Have Things Under Control

"Today, 56% say they are confident about the future. This means that 44% aren’t confident. Today, 42% say they have increased their tax-deferred retirement savings. This means that 58% haven’t. Today, 55% say they are better prepared for retirement than in 2007. This means that 45% don’t think they are. Today, 42% have increased the size of their emergency fund. This means that 58% haven’t. We are asked to believe that people’s personal savings rate is up since November 2007, the month before the recession is said to have begun. Yes, it is — by a percentage so tiny that it is barely visible." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingInvestors (Suckers) Say They Have Things Under Control

Maybe This Is Why We Now Have a Serial-Bubble Economy

"If there is any one strikingly obvious feature of the U.S. economy in the past 15 years, it's the serial asset bubbles, one after another. Take a look at this chart. Why did our economy become dependent on asset bubbles for 'growth'? One way to find an answer is to ask: cui bono, to whose benefit? Correspondent Jeff W. has the answer: the financial sector and the central government." Continue reading →

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Non-Traditional Retirements, or DIY Sabbaticals

"NPR Morning Edition featured a story today about non-traditional retirements: Seeing The (Northern) Light: A Temporary Arctic Retirement. Instead of waiting until 65, Winston Chen decided to stop working for an entire year mid-career and moved his family to a small Norwegian island in the Arctic Circle with only 180 residents. Our society seems to feel that education is for the young, work is for the middle-aged, and leisure is for the elderly. But what if you decided to snip 5 years from those retirement years and sprinkle them between your working years?" Continue reading →

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Election won’t prevent pension crash

"The tax gap isn't the deepest divide in America. The deepest gap is the pension divide, between those few who have a guaranteed cushion in the form of defined-benefit pensions, which promise a fixed annuity at retirement, and those who don't. How the candidates address this divide, cultural as well as political, is crucial, far beyond November. To understand the current mindset, it helps to consider the pension culture of the past. In the early 1980s, many companies, as well as governments, offered employees a defined-pension benefit when they retired. Thirty years ago, about 62 percent of American workers were covered by some kind of plan like this." Continue reading →

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