Network Archives

Bill Bonner: America’s faith-based economy

"Did Mary really ascend to Heaven on this day? Was she really a virgin? Did she really give birth to the son of God? You need faith to believe such things. Likewise, you need faith to believe that a piece of green paper is ‘money’. You are also supposed to believe that its managers will make sure this ‘money’ holds its purchasing power even as they do their damnedest to undermine it. But to believe that you need more than faith. You need a full frontal lobotomy." Continue reading →

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Detroit, Demographics and Detonation

"The baby boom generation is an abnormality. It was the byproduct of halcyon days — not that we knew it at the time. But as we have seen in Detroit, when demographics shift from production to pension, there is trouble ahead. Low birth rates combined with a plethora of maturing adults on the cusp of retirement turns the pyramid of society on its head. Lower growth in itself is not a bad thing. We are still moving forward. The problem is certain promises (welfare and health commitments) have been made that cannot be kept if growth does not return to around the 3% mark. Putting this genie back in the bottle is going to be a political nightmare." Continue reading →

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Rising Inequality and Poverty: Can They Be Fixed?

"Societies can choose between two forms of relatively stable but impoverishing feudalism--stagnant backwater or financial--or accept the existential risks of embracing innovation and experimentation, not just in narrow technological fields but across the entire economy, society and government. Incentivizing the values that favor wealth creation--thrift, investing, improving skills, entrepreneurial drive, flexibility, strong families--may be just as important as leveling the playing field, i.e. maintaining opportunity via maintaining access to education and social capital building." Continue reading →

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The Ph.D Bust: America’s Awful Market for Young Scientists—in 7 Charts

"Politicians and businessmen are fond of talking about America's scientist shortage -- the dearth of engineering and lab talent that will inevitably leave us sputtering in the global economy. But perhaps it's time they start talking about our scientist surplus instead. I am by no means the first person to make this point. But I was compelled to try and illustrate it after reading a report from Inside Higher Ed. In short, job prospects for young science Ph.D.'s haven't been looking so hot these last few years, not only in the life sciences, which have been weak for some time, but also in fields like engineering." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Ph.D Bust: America’s Awful Market for Young Scientists—in 7 Charts

Fmr. Comptroller David Walker: To help end budget gimmicks, pass this bill

"This bill, also championed by the youth-led 'The Can Kicks Back' campaign, would make it more difficult for Washington politicians to kick the can down the road by providing information about the long-term impact of today’s unsustainable fiscal policy. Specifically, the INFORM Act would expose two important but often ignored realities. First, with an aging population, rising healthcare costs and mounting interest expense, federal spending is set to automatically and dramatically increase the 'mandatory' part of our budget. Second, young people and future generations will disproportionately shoulder the burden of our fiscal imbalance." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFmr. Comptroller David Walker: To help end budget gimmicks, pass this bill

U. of California economist says real US debt $70 trillion, not $16 trillion

"James Hamilton believes the government leaving out certain unfunded liabilities that include government loan guarantees, deposit insurance, and actions taken by the Federal Reserve as well as the cost of other government trust funds, which bring the total amount the government owes to a staggering $70 trillion, he says. 'The biggest off-balance-sheet liabilities come from recognition of the fiscal stress that will come in the form of an aging population and rising medical expenditures,' Hamilton says, adding, 'There are many historical episodes in which off-balance sheet liabilities ended up having quite significant on-balance sheet implications.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingU. of California economist says real US debt $70 trillion, not $16 trillion

Larry Kotlikoff: Detroit Today, Washington Tomorrow

"The debt Uncle Sam publicly acknowledges is now $12 trillion. But the true measure of our debt -- the one suggested by economic theory -- is the fiscal gap, which totals $222 trillion. The fiscal gap is the present value of all future expenditures, including servicing outstanding official federal debt, minus the present value of all future receipts. Detroit's main means of hiding its true liabilities was discounting its future obligations at a rate far higher than appropriate, thus giving the appearance that less saving was needed to cover the shortfall. Washington's dirtier trick has been to keep virtually all of its future liabilities off the books." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingLarry Kotlikoff: Detroit Today, Washington Tomorrow

This amazing, animated chart shows the aging of America

"This is a mesmerizing little animation created by Bill McBride of Calculated Risk. It shows the distribution of the U.S. population by age over time, starting at 1900 and ending with Census Bureau forecasts between now and 2060. As McBride points out, you can see a big 'baby bust' before and during the Great Depression, right before prosperity returns and the Baby Boom strikes. (You can also see the bulge of Baby Boomers ripple through the charts in the latter half of the 20th century.)" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThis amazing, animated chart shows the aging of America

Economist: Obamacare Will Cost 4 Million Jobs

"A contraction of 3% means big job losses. About 4 million jobs, to be precise. This would, of course, end up added to the current jobs deficit of more than 8 million, according to the Economic Policy Institute. Obamacare, meanwhile, purports to enable access to insurance coverage to tens of millions of new people. 'What we are describing is a huge increase in the demand for care,' says Goodman. 'But the Affordable Care Act does nothing to increase supply. This is virtually guaranteed to put upward pressure on prices. To the extent that prices are prevented from rising, it will create enhanced rationing by waiting.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingEconomist: Obamacare Will Cost 4 Million Jobs