So, the long-awaited moment is nearly here. The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to issue its ruling on several health care “reform” cases1 this week. Most probably the ruling will come today, which is the last day officially scheduled in the current term. Some pundits have wondered whether the Court will even extend the term because of the health care rulings – but other say that’s not likely.
Regardless of precisely when a ruling is released, many have looked for it to provide certainty on the whole issue of health care. But, as President Kennedy once said:
” …the one unchangeable certainty is that nothing is certain or unchangeable.”
~ State of the Union Address, January 11, 1962
There is only one thing that is actually VERY certain following the Supreme Court ruling and that is – more uncertainty. I’ll illustrate by providing the extremes on either end of the possibility spectrum:
- If the law is upheld in its entirety, we will finally learn whether pledges oft-repeated by Republicans since March 21, 2010, to “Repeal ObamaCare”, will come to fruition — or not. And if they don’t …THEN what, America?
- If the law is completely overturned, we will have the whole health care fight…all over again. Yep. Sounds like fun, huh?
What seems like the perfect analogy hit me a few days ago. Following the Supreme Court ruling on health care “reform”, we will all live through a real-life version of a Choose Your Own Adventure book.
For those not familiar with this series, its two key characteristics are, one, the ability to direct the story by choosing from a list of available options presented at various points in the book, and, two, a very high potential for disastrous consequences if the wrong option(s) are chosen at any (or several) of those available decision points.
The following spoof cover formerly http://snarkerati.com/movie-news/choose-your-own-adventure-movie/is likely to elicit a laugh from any adult of my generation (and our parents, perhaps):
Of course, the health care law, its fate, and, literally, the future direction of the nation, is no laughing matter. The perilous tone of the spoof cover (and the series itself) is, unfortunately, applicable in the coming months. BUT, we cannot say “Don’t Bother”. We must follow this sordid tale and attempt to impact the choices made along the way.
Another difference between the Choose Your Own Adventure series and our real-life drama is that none of us will move through the health care “adventure” on our own; and none of us has the direct ability to decide on the list of available options that will determine the ultimate outcome. How much power American citizens will actually have in the choosing will come to down to the following:
How many of us are…
- Able to see through / past the typical polarization of such political issues (divide and conquer);
- Willing to accept a list of very hard truths;
- Willing and able to advocate truth to others; AND
- Willing and able to focus effectively on efforts to impact officials who are directly in positions to choose.
For the guaranteed health care “adventure” to come, I can only layout possible rulings. For the most part, I will avoid interjecting what I think is the most likely outcome. There’s no real way to know without working directly in the Supreme Court. Although there is little Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg says with which I would agree, a quote in her Friday, June 15 speech lines up with historical fact:
“At the Supreme Court, those who know don’t talk. And those who talk don’t know.”
So, pundits who have speculated regarding the outcome of the case, either based on their analysis of the oral arguments in March or on rumors running through D.C., seem to play the part of fool in “fools rush in where angels fear to tread”.
Talk is cheap, as the saying goes, but actual research and investigative reporting is, from the available quantity of each, apparently far too expensive. Most of the same media outlets who’ve paraded the endless stream of speculators, has, in the past two years perpetuated the myth that there is one issue about which the Court will rule…“the individual mandate”.
Admittedly, it’s so much easier to talk about the issue of health care and the litigation based on ONE issue. But, in reality, there are four. Three of them, only one of which is the individual mandate, present potential for setting precedent.
I’ve listed the possible rulings on those four issues in the order in which the oral arguments occurred, boiled down as much as possible to the essential issues – color coded by the four overall issues in the case, in an effort to keep them straight. Finally, I added a lot of links to additional information on the subjects / issues noted AND, links which allow clicking from one chart to another.
After the ruling is released, you might find it helpful to come back to this article – I plan to myself, in part as reference, and to see how this effort at “boiling down” the issues compares to the real thing.
* Possible Supreme Court Rulings *
For an overview of the arguments made before the Court, including links to the audio and transcripts, see our previous article, “US Supreme Court Health Care Arguments: The Basics”.
Anti-Injunction Tax Act
For a detailed explanation of this issue, see our previous article, “Individual Mandate a Tax? If YES – Then What?”
#1 Is the minimum coverage (individual mandate) penalty a tax?
YES, Penalties are a taxDoes the Anti-Injunction Tax Act apply? See #2 |
NO, Penalities are not a taxLawsuit CAN be maintained. See Minimum Coverage Provision |
#2 Is the purpose of the lawsuit to restrain the assessment or collection of that tax?
YESNo suit can be maintained in a court of law – No court has jurisdiction. *ALL* STOP (until…Tax has been assessed, administrative remedies exhausted)2 |
NOLawsuit CAN be maintained. See Minimum Coverage Provision |
Minimum Coverage Provision (Individual Mandate)
Is the Minimum Coverage Provision (Individual Mandate) an appropriate use of Congress’ Commerce Clause or taxing powers under the Constitution?
The minimum coverage provision (individual mandate) is constitutional.
Congress did not overstep its powers under the Commerce clause; it has the power to regulate markets with substantial impact on interstate commerce. It was within Congress’ power to: Create a regulatory scheme for the “health care market3” which…
Severability not at issue – see Medicaid. |
The minimum coverage provision (individual mandate) is unconstitutional.
There is no limiting principle in the federal government’s scheme; if Congress’ Commerce Clause power includes the ability to compel individuals to pay for health services only with an insurance policy mandated by government, there is no limit to that Commerce power. Congress took an unprecedented step because the health care law is not regulating commerce in an existing market, it is creating a market. Is the Minimum Coverage provision severable from the rest of the legislation? See Severability. |
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Severability
Are any provisions found by the Court to be an overreach of Congressional power (unconstitutional) severable from the remainder of the legislation or must the whole legislative scheme be overturned?
The minimum coverage provision is not severable.
AND, perhaps… Since Congress did not choose to include a severability clause and other provisions were passed as a result of the deal-making and compromises associated with the minimum coverage provision and it is not appropriate for the Court to unravel questions regarding what among those provisions what would have passed (or not) the legislation is invalid. The Court would overturn the legislation, noting that the legislation cannot act independently without the minimum coverage provisions, that it is Constitutionally Congress’ role to determine how to address the problems it stated it wished to solve in other ways and to sort out questions regarding what among the remainder of the thousands of pages can and should be enacted without the minimum coverage provision included. See Medicaid. |
The minimum coverage provision is severable.The legislation’s thousands of pages included many other provisions which are Constitutional and can therefore be maintained. Although the remainder of the legislation can be maintained, Congress MAY reassess some / all of the legislative scheme as a result. See Medicaid. |
The minimum coverage provision is severable, but so are the following issue(s): _________________. (Medicaid may present such an additional severability issue – see Medicaid, below)The Court has decided in the past that it must rule on issues beyond those presented by plaintiffs or respondents. This Court has shown recognition of the importance of the issues here, an effort to be extremely thorough, and a willingness to extend beyond plaintiffs and respondents:
Some of the legislation can be maintained, some cannot. Congress MAY reassess the remainder / all of the legislative scheme as a result. See Medicaid. |
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Medicaid
Do the Medicaid provisions included in the health care law constitute an over reach of Congress’ spending power5. ? Do the provisions fundamentally change the relationship between the federal government and the States? Are the Medicaid provisions a coercive use of federal government’s power?
The Medicaid provisions do not over reach Congress power to spend and are not coercive.Voluntary versus mandatory:
Federalism / dual sovereignty:
Spending / taxation:
Powers of the Secretary of Health and Human Services:
The Medicaid provisions in the legislation are not coercive and do not constitute a case of Congress exceeding its power to spend. The Medicaid provisions, as written, would be upheld. |
Congress overstepped necessary limits on its spending power; the provisions which expand and change the Medicaid program are coercive and violate the principles of federalism / dual sovereignty.Congress’ power to spend has limits.
AND State budgets will necessarily be commandeered by the program:
Congress’ construction of the legislation proves a coercive element by tying the Minimum Coverage provision (individual mandate) directly to the Medicaid program:
The legislation’s language singles out new participants in Medicaid formerly http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c111:H.R.3590.ENR:/ under the law (Section 2001) but, at the same ties the expansion to the existing program. The Medicaid program elements of the Social Security Act of 19657, coupled with the language in the 2010 health care legislation, grant unbridled discretion to the executive branch office of the Secretary of Health and Human Services:
The Constitutional provisions for dual sovereignty – federalism – requires a clear line of accountability in the relationship between government and citizen. The Medicaid program expansions constitute a blurring of the line. Any participation in the Medicaid program by states must be voluntary. In order to comply with such a ruling, Congress would have to restructure the law so as to make the expansion optional. Provisions in the 2010 health care legislation and/or the Social Security Act of 1965 granting unbridled power to the Secretary of Health and Human Services would be void. See “Severability”, final section, inserting “Medicaid” in the blank AND see the additional note, below. |
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Additional note on Severability
The Court MAY find that the Minimum Coverage (Individual Mandate) provision *AND* the Medicaid provisions constitute, TOGETHER, an inextricable web of issues that mean that unconstitutional elements can NOT be severed, and, therefore, the entire legislative scheme would be overturned.
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So, what’s next in the Our Health Care Adventure?
One’s imagination can assist by contemplating the array of potential fall out from any of the possible rulings listed here, but any such detailed imaginings here will necessarily – be continued…
Meanwhile, this seems appropriate…
And unfortunately, also, this…
- The “law” at issue is actually two pieces of legislation – the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act formerly http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c111:7:./temp/~c111TEbkcb:: and the Health Care and Education and Reconciliation Act. ↩
- For those wondering, “ALL STOP” is literal; such a decision would literally mean that the Court would find it does not have jurisdiction over the case at this time and, therefore, it would literally be years before such a case could before the Court. When the Anti-Injunction Tax Act applies and is jurisdictional, taxes must first be collected and all available administrative remedies must be exhausted before a suit could be filed. Standing law requires tax challenges to be addressed through administrative procedures. Of the four issues before the Court, the one lending itself to projection, if any, is the penalty issue; it seems very unlikely that the Court will find the penalty to be a tax or, even if it does, that the purpose of the suit was to restrain its assessment or collection, so the Court will likely consider the other three issues in the case. ↩
- The federal government argued that even when individuals do not seek out health care services, they are already part of “the health care market”, because all individuals will eventually need health care services. Further, uninsured individuals constitute an ‘actuarial factor’ in determining community-ratings, which were mandated by the health care legislation. ↩
- Since the turn of the 20th Century, the inclusion of a severability clause in most legislation is generally standard. The lack of such a clause has greater impact in lower courts, however, than it does when a case is before the Supreme Court. An examination of the legal history on this issue reveals that there is some lack of clarity on the subject and potential for additional clarification of standards by the Supreme Court as a result. For in-depth history and recent Supreme Court rulings on severability, see the essay, “Severability Doctrine: How Much of a Statute Should Federal Courts Invalidate”, by Kenneth A. Klukowski, fall 2011. ↩
- The concept of a “Spending Clause” or “the spending power” appears to be of relatively recent historical “vintage”, apparently emerging in the case South Dakota v Dole. Among the important questions raised by the health care legislation is a potential precedent-setting decision regarding Congress “spending power”, which has has of yet to be stated in explicit limits in any Supreme Court decision following Dole ↩
- The bullet point noted is actually a quote from Chief Justice Roberts during the oral arguments over the Medicaid issue on March 28, 2012 ↩
- In 1965, significant changes were made to the existing Social Security Act which created a number of new entitlement programs, including Medicaid. During oral arguments regarding the the Medicaid issue at hand, several justices referenced the original language of the 1965 amendments to the Social Security, which do grant considerable discretion to the Cabinet Secretary responsible for administering the program the time – the Secretary of Labor. This responsibility was transferred at some later date to what became the Department of Health and Human Services. ↩
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