Bullshit Artists

German Intelligence Worked Closely with NSA on Data Surveillance

"Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly said she knew nothing about American surveillance activities in Germany. But documents show that German intelligence cooperates closely with the NSA and even uses spy software provided by the US. The shift to a more offensive German security policy began in 2007. Since then, there have been 'regular US-German analytic exchanges and closer cooperation in tracking both German and non-German extremist targets.' The German foreign intelligence agency went even further in its effort to please the Americans, 'working to influence the German government to relax interpretation of the privacy laws'." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingGerman Intelligence Worked Closely with NSA on Data Surveillance

Public Sector Pensions Are a National Issue

"Paul Krugman and Dean Baker took the Washington Post editorial page to task yesterday for stating that unfunded state and local pension liabilities amounted to $3.8 trillion. They accuse the page of misquoting a study in which the total was cited as only $1 trillion. Currently, standard practice measures the funding status of public pensions in the US under the laughable assumption that every dollar in the pension funds will earn compound returns of 7.75% or 8% per year. That’s the basis for the $1 trillion in unfunded liabilities. If unfunded liabilities are $1.0 trillion under an 8% rate, then they are $3.4 trillion unfunded under a 4% rate." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingPublic Sector Pensions Are a National Issue

Public Sector Pensions Are a National Issue

"Paul Krugman and Dean Baker took the Washington Post editorial page to task yesterday for stating that unfunded state and local pension liabilities amounted to $3.8 trillion. They accuse the page of misquoting a study in which the total was cited as only $1 trillion. Currently, standard practice measures the funding status of public pensions in the US under the laughable assumption that every dollar in the pension funds will earn compound returns of 7.75% or 8% per year. That’s the basis for the $1 trillion in unfunded liabilities. If unfunded liabilities are $1.0 trillion under an 8% rate, then they are $3.4 trillion unfunded under a 4% rate." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingPublic Sector Pensions Are a National Issue

A Dozen Things I’ve Learned From Michael Mauboussin About Investing

"1. 'The only certainty is that there is no certainty… With uncertainty, the underlying distribution of outcomes is undefined, while with risk we know what that distribution looks like. Corporate undulation is uncertain; roulette is risky…' There is no single number which can be used to predict the future price of an investment because the future is not only risky (like roulette) but uncertain (unknown unknowns). There are known future states for which probability is unknown and future states that are unknown for which probability is not computable." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingA Dozen Things I’ve Learned From Michael Mauboussin About Investing

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics… at FreedomFest

"Don’t believe everything you’re told by promoters about second citizenship and passports. They may be entertaining and persuasive, but they can get you into some serious trouble. Same goes with anyone who promises that you can somehow hide your offshore holdings from the IRS. You’re asking for a world of trouble (not to mention setting yourself up to be blackmailed). Look, I’ve been in asset and privacy protection business for more than a quarter century. I’ve seen these things come and go. And, from experience with thousands of clients, I can tell you that the only proper way to do this is the legal way." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingLies, Damned Lies, and Statistics… at FreedomFest

Which of Bernanke’s Statements Should We Believe?

"On one hand, he's giving precise numbers like 6.5% and 7% unemployment, and on the other hand, his message seems to be, 'Don't pay attention to those numbers too much. We're just going to play it by ear.' Kind of confusing, in my opinion. Does the Fed want the market to pay attention to those metrics or not? The answer is probably somewhere in between. Not a whole lot from his statements this time around, but we do have two things to closely keep our eye on now—near 7% unemployment and faltering real estate prices—as two key trigger points." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWhich of Bernanke’s Statements Should We Believe?

Detroit’s City Pensioners Are Wiped Out.

"This is the thing about impossible obligations. They get abandoned. This confirms economist Herbert Stein’s law: 'When things can’t go on, they have a tendency to stop.' A year ago, the experts denied that anything was wrong. Yes, there were 'problems,' but nothing that could not be fixed. 'Bankruptcy? Are you serious? Of course not. There is no possibility of that. Such talk is inflammatory. Perish the thought.' That’s what politicians always say . . . right up to the end. The pensioners will have to go back to work. They will be covered by Medicare only. They believed the politicians. They invested their working years in terms of promises made by politicians." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingDetroit’s City Pensioners Are Wiped Out.

Obama Flashback: “We Refused to Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”

"In October of 2012, President Barack Obama triumphantly declared he 'refused to throw in the town' and 'let Detroit go bankrupt.' On July 18, 2013, Detroit went bankrupt. 'We refused to throw in the towel and do nothing. We refused to let Detroit go bankrupt. We bet on American workers and American ingenuity, and three years later, that bet is paying off in a big way,' Obama said in his weekly address. To be fair, it seems that Obama was touting Detroit of an example of how his administration 'saved' the automobile industry. Clearly though, this administration’s big government policies were still not enough to save the city from economic ruin." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingObama Flashback: “We Refused to Let Detroit Go Bankrupt”

Indian government again urges Indians not to buy gold

"India's Finance Minister P Chidambaram has appealed to the people, once again, to moderate their demand for gold. While insisting that the government would not rule out a complete ban on gold imports, as has been discussed in some quarters, he pointed out the precious metal has cost the nation $50 billion in foreign exchange. Stating that there is a long time attachment to gold in India, the minister asked, '... can we for sometime moderate the demand for gold?' Asking investors to cut down on their purchases as a starting point, Chidambaram suggested buying 10 grams of gold if one was inclined to buy 20 grams of gold." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndian government again urges Indians not to buy gold

Medical research on animals often biased, scientists warn

"Researchers examined 160 previously published meta-analyses of 1,411 animal studies on potential treatments for multiple sclerosis, stroke, Parkinson’s disease, Alzheimer’s disease and spinal cord injury, all done on more than 4,000 animals. Just eight showed evidence of strong, statistically significant associations using evidence from more than 500 animals. Only two studies seemed to lead to 'convincing' data in randomized controlled trials in humans, it said. The rest showed a range of problems, from poor study design, to small size, to an overarching tendency toward publishing only studies in which positive effects could be reported." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingMedical research on animals often biased, scientists warn