Economics

What the Fed Can Learn From the McDonald’s Dollar Menu

"We live in parallel universes. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is said to have a healthy concern about deflation. McDonald’s franchisees, on the other hand, not so much. The chain of Golden Arches fame will give up its Dollar Menu after 11 years, renaming it 'The Dollar Menu & More' next month. It turns out you simply can’t make a buck selling burgers for a buck. It must be hard to give up on such an amazing marketing gimmick, generating one-seventh of all sales since its inception. If Ben Bernanke is paying attention, he is no doubt thrilled to hear about rising price pressures." Continue reading →

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In Fed and Out, Many Now Think Inflation Helps

"Some economists say more inflation is just what the American economy needs to escape from a half-decade of sluggish growth and high unemployment. Economists, including Janet Yellen, President Obama’s nominee to lead the Fed starting next year, have long argued that a little inflation is particularly valuable when the economy is weak. The school board in Anchorage, Alaska, for example, is counting on inflation to keep a lid on teachers’ wages. Retailers including Costco and Walmart are hoping for higher inflation to increase profits. The federal government expects inflation to ease the burden of its debts. Yet by one measure, inflation rose at an annual pace of 1.2 percent in August." Continue reading →

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Finally, the End of Keynesianism

"Are you a Keynesian? So many seem to be. Do you really believe that a properly functioning, mathematically literate approach to high finance can salvage what's left of the financial systems of the US, the West, the entire world? Top central bankers apparently don't. Just look at this article excerpt. They've retreated from the idea of tapering until 2014 and Peter Schiff was probably correct that they won't really taper at all because they can't. That should put an end to Keynesianism, though probably it won't. The technocratic meme of money control is the most cherished of all dominant social themes." Continue reading →

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Doug Casey & Jim Rogers Legendary Investors’ Roundtable

"Jim and Doug discuss today's world economic and financial situation within the context of financial history and past financial panics. Jim and Doug talk about central planning, central banking, big government and how governments have only 3 real options to raise money. Next, Jason asks Doug and Jim about competing currencies like Bitcoin, gold and silver and whether they will be allowed under any circumstance. Jason asks Jim and Doug about the turmoil in the currency and bonds markets. Doug and Jim also talk about commodities like farmland, cattle, gold and other natural resource investing opportunities. Jim Rogers was in Singapore and Doug Casey was in Argentina." Continue reading →

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Kirby Cundiff: Why Do Banks Keep Going Bankrupt?

"During the recent crises in Cyprus, proposals were seriously considered to ignore the 100,000 EUR deposit insurance and seize a fraction of even small depositors’ money. Most depositors lost access to their accounts for over a week and large depositors are still likely to lose a large fraction of their assets. Most depositors still believe that deposit insurance will cover any possible losses. If banks are to become more stable, the amount of equity relative to debt in the banking system must be drastically increased to something resembling what it would be without government deposit insurance, central bank subsidies, and treasury bailouts." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: Alan Greenspan’s Shock Revelation

"We know from bitter experience that trying to force economies to do what you want is a thankless task. Markets are fundamentally based on free exchange, cooperation, trust and trade. Force them in one direction or another and you are just asking for trouble. As Alan Greenspan described this week, in an interview with John Stewart on 'The Daily Show,' people are a little 'screwy' from time to time. Which means they don’t necessarily go along with your central planning, no matter how good you think it is. But still economists insist that, if they are allowed to monkey around with it, they can make an economy better. This is occasionally true." Continue reading →

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Federal Reserve Policy Failures Are Mounting

"One possible reason why the Fed have consistently erred on the high side in their growth forecasts is that they assume higher stock prices will lead to higher spending via the so-called wealth effect. The Fed's ad hoc analysis on this subject has been wrong and is in conflict with econometric studies. The studies suggest that when wealth rises or falls, consumer spending does not generally respond, or if it does respond, it does so feebly. During the run-up of stock and home prices over the past three years, the year-over-year growth in consumer spending has actually slowed sharply from over 5% in early 2011 to just 2.9% in the four quarters ending Q2." Continue reading →

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Barack Obama’s Nixonian Fed Pick

"As a result of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing programs, banks are now sitting on more than $2.2 trillion in excess reserves. How the Fed eliminates these excess reserves before they produce an explosive growth in the money supply and surging inflation should be more of a concern to the next Fed Chair than an unemployment rate that is more the product of uncertainties associated with deficit spending and business fears about Obamacare than any lack of liquidity caused by the Fed. Yellen’s defenders say there’s nothing to worry about. As Georgetown University professor Henry Holzer put it, Yellen is fully aware of inflation and not a 'mindless stimulator.' Others aren’t so sure." Continue reading →

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