Economics

Bill Bonner: Statistics show the fall of the US economy

"Good news is bad news. Bad news is good news. Up is down and backwards is forwards. Nothing is what it seems...or what it ought to be. If the economy really were doing better the Fed would have to follow through on its promise to 'normalize' monetary policy. That is, it would stop lending at zero interest rates and stop its $85 billion-per-month QE program. But those hocus-pocus programs - not a genuine recovery - are what keep stock prices going up. What this means is that there is no genuine recovery. It's all the smoke of ZIRP and the mirrors of QE. When the magic show ends...so does the illusion of recovery." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: Statistics show the fall of the US economy

The Obamacare Shell Game (Part 1)

"The Affordable Care Act establishes a transitional reinsurance program in each state to help stabilize premiums for coverage in the individual market due to individuals with higher cost needs gaining insurance coverage during the first three years of Exchange operation (2014 through 2016). All health insurance issuers, self-insured group health plans, and third party administrators on their behalf, will make contributions to support reinsurance payments to individual market issuers that cover individuals with high medical costs." Continue reading →

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QE Exit to Rattle U.S. Bond Markets, Warns OECD

"'Exit from unconventional monetary policy, when needed, may be difficult to manage and less smooth than desirable, possibly leading to sharp rises in bond yields and serious negative consequences for growth in a number of advanced and emerging economies,' Pier Carlo Padoan, OECD’s deputy secretary-general and chief economist, said in the report. 'A leap in U.S. government bond yields would result in capital losses for investors, and prices on other assets would most likely follow suit, with mortgage-backed securities and corporate bonds most strongly affected. [..] In comparison with 1994, this could be more disruptive given current higher leverage." Continue reading →

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Caitlin Long: Vulnerability of Fed’s Balance Sheet

"Several companies have recently asked us for an analysis of the Federal Reserve tapering its quantitative easing programs. One factor that is not widely analyzed is the Fed’s own balance sheet, which could be a constraint on how far and how fast the Fed permits interest rates to rise in the US. We calculate that a 143bp parallel rise in the yield curve would cause a drop in the market value of the Fed’s assets that exceeds the Fed’s own equity capital (as of May 15). The Fed balance sheet’s capacity to absorb higher interest rates has deterioriated quickly, as the 143bp capacity is down from 185bp as of last October." Continue reading →

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Peter Schiff: The Biggest Loser Wins

"Never in the course of history has a country's economy failed because its currency was too strong. It's a pathology that simply does not exist. On the other hand, the list of those ruined by weak currencies is extensive. The view that a weak currency is desirable is so absurd that it could only have been devised to serve the political agenda of those engineering the descent. A currency war is different from any other kind of conventional war in that the object is to kill oneself. The nation that succeeds in inflicting the most damage on its own citizens wins the war. The only real way to win is not to play." Continue reading →

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What If Stocks, Bonds and Housing All Go Down Together?

"In the past, central banks were pleased to inflate one bubble at a time, enabling money both smart and dumb to flee one smoking ruin and get busy inflating the next bubble-ready asset class. But now, thanks to essentially unlimited liquidity and credit, the central banks have inflated three bubbles at the same time: stocks, bonds and housing. That raises an interesting question: what if all these bubbles pop in unison? Will the central banks be able to place a bid under all three markets simultaneously? If so, where will all that freed-up cash go next?" Continue reading →

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The Words That Sent the Stock Market Tumbling

"Stocks closed down nearly 1 percent in a volatile session after the minutes from the last Fed policy setting meeting suggested the Fed is divided on when it may start to pull back on its monetary stimulus. The market had moved higher earlier in the session when Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated that tapering bond purchases will depend on an improvement in the economic data. But then during the Q & A, Bernanke said that the Fed could decide to scale back the pace of bond purchases at one of the 'next few meetings' if the economic recovery looked set to maintain forward momentum." Continue reading →

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Switzerland reintroduces immigration quotas after sudden influx of Europeans

"Switzerland will begin restricting residence permits to citizens from 17 European Union countries, including the UK, on June 1st. The measure, approved by the federal government and announced by the immigration department on Wednesday, was triggered by a safeguard clause in the freedom of movement agreement signed by the Swiss with the EU. The clause allows for the Swiss to restrict immigrants from the EU unilaterally until May 31st, 2014. It can be enacted if the number of residence and short stay permits issued to EU workers exceeds by at least 10 percent the average number of annual permits issued in the previous three years." Continue reading →

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Hell Freezes Over? French Support Spending Cuts by Overwhelming 4-1 Margin

"According to new polling data from Pew, the people of France support spending cuts over spending increases by a margin of 81-18, an astounding result. I’m also surprised that the Spaniards and Italians support spending cuts. The polling results are especially impressive considering that Pew asked the question in a very biased way, presupposing that Keynesian economics actually works. The fact that so many Europeans saw through this inaccurate wording is very encouraging." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingHell Freezes Over? French Support Spending Cuts by Overwhelming 4-1 Margin