History Repeating

Ben Bernanke Was Incredibly, Uncannily Wrong [2009]

"We now have the diametrical opposite of the famous 'Peter Schiff Was Right' video (a compilation of 2006 and 2007 clips in which Schiff, a financial expert who subscribes to Austrian economics, predicted the deep recession that would follow the bursting of the housing bubble). The new, opposite video is a compilation of the 2005–2007 prognostications of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. In it, Bernanke is shown to have been just as embarrassingly wrong as Schiff was uncannily right. Could their differences in economic understanding have anything to do with this remarkable dichotomy?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBen Bernanke Was Incredibly, Uncannily Wrong [2009]

The Feds Won’t Stop Terrorism This Way

"While the current rationale for encryption back doors is to fight terrorism, they wouldn’t be used just for that purpose. For proof, just look at the history of the PATRIOT Act. This law gives the US government unprecedented civil forfeiture authority over the US 'correspondent accounts' of any bank in the world. If an alleged terrorist or other criminal deposits money at the bank overseas, the PATRIOT Act allows the government to seize an equivalent sum of money in the correspondent account in the US. Proponents justified the law as a necessary escalation in the 'War on Terror.' But the very first time the government used its new civil forfeiture authority, it had nothing to do with terrorism." Continue reading →

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John Hussman: Psychological Whiplash

"Investors who refused to take the speculative bait may have been the first casualties of the Fed’s policies. But now, it is investors who remain fully invested in obscenely overvalued equities and junk credit that have become the unwitting dupes in this game. If the Fed cannot force people to abandon saving behavior with zero interest rates, some members of the FOMC have openly talked about driving interest rates to negative rates to 'stimulate' spending. This is not economics, it is megalomaniacal sociopathy. Centuries of economic history warn that this speculative episode, too, will end in a collapse." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJohn Hussman: Psychological Whiplash

Yellen Says Negative Rates On The Table “If Outlook Worsened”

"As the market now diligently calculates the suddenly surging odds of a December rate hike, here's Yellen with a preview of what will happen once the rate hike cycle is aborted, just as it was aborted in Japan in August of 2000 when the BOJ also decided to send a signal how much stronger the economy is by hiking 25 bps, only to cut 7 months later and to proceed to monetize not only all net Japanese debt issuance a decade later, but to hold half of all equity ETFs. The good news: YELLEN SAYS SHE DOESN'T SEE NEED FOR NEGATIVE RATES NOW; YELLEN SAYS FED SEES ECONOMY ON STEADY PATH OF IMPROVEMENT; Because when have the Fed's forecasts before ever been wrong." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingYellen Says Negative Rates On The Table “If Outlook Worsened”

Chinese Brokers Now Selling Margin Loan-Backed Securities

"Now, the PBoC will look to supercharge efforts to re-engineer a stock market bubble via leverage by pushing brokerages to issue ABS backed by margin loans. If brokerages simply offload the margin loan risk to investors and use the proceeds to fund still more margin lending which can also be turned into still more ABS, and so on, then the effect will be to pile leverage on top of leverage. What happens in the event the underlying stocks become completely illiquid (i.e. Beijing decides to suspend trading on three quarters of the market again)? The punchline: the senior tranche (which accounts for CNY475 million of the total CNY500 million deal) is rated AAA." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingChinese Brokers Now Selling Margin Loan-Backed Securities

J.P. Morgan makes it easier for rich to take out mortgages

"J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is loosening its underwriting criteria for big mortgages, as lenders ramp up competition to grab a bigger share of the high-end housing market. The nation’s largest bank plans to announce as soon as Tuesday that it is lowering the minimum credit score and down payment it requires for mortgages as big as $3 million. At the same time, some big banks are backing away from smaller loans where they see higher regulatory costs and litigation risks. By dollar volume, jumbo mortgages given out by lenders last year accounted for about 20% of all first-lien mortgages. That is up from 5.5% in 2009. The last time jumbo mortgages accounted for a larger share was in 2005." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJ.P. Morgan makes it easier for rich to take out mortgages

The Next Financial Disaster Starts Here

"Because junk bond ETFs appear liquid, most investors don’t see the danger. They think they can sell their junk bonds ETFs just as easily as they could sell shares of Apple. But if too many people decide to sell junk bonds at once, it could overwhelm the market and cause prices to crash. None of this has been a problem yet because junk bonds have been in a bull market. According to Bank of America, junk bonds have gained 149% since 2009. But all bull markets eventually end. And when this one ends, junk bonds could cause massive losses to investors who don’t know about these risks." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Next Financial Disaster Starts Here

U.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to 20-Year Low

"The U.S. homeownership fell to its lowest level in 20 years at the end of 2014—levels last seen when national leaders embarked on a broad push to expand homeownership in the mid-1990s. Over the past year, President Barack Obama and other administration officials have voiced alarm that lending has gone from one extreme during the bubble—too loose —to the other—too tight—in the aftermath of the bust. Officials have walked a fine line in attempting to bar a return of the reckless products and practices that allowed the bubble to inflate 10 years ago while loosening some standards elsewhere to provide broader access to homeowners without perfect credit or big down payments." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingU.S. Homeownership Rate Falls to 20-Year Low

Bank of Canada Admits Recession, The Solution: More Bubbles

"What made the Canadian recession easy to spot was the Canadian yield curve inverted out to three years following a surprise rate cut by the Bank of Canada on January 21. It remains to be seen if the US follows. The US contracted in the first quarter, but the second quarter rebound was a bit stronger than I expected. I awarded Canada the 'Blue Ribbon' for the first yield curve inversion of any major country following the great financial crisis. I smell an 'Operation Twist' type move by the Canadian central bank to rectify this horrific 'recession-signaling' condition. If so, the sweet spot for banks and hedge funds to front-run the trade appears to be 5Y or 7Y notes. Some banks may already be in on it." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBank of Canada Admits Recession, The Solution: More Bubbles

Fed rate-hike speculation lifts U.S. dollar to three-month high

"The dollar reached its highest in nearly three months against a basket of currencies on Monday on a rise in U.S. bond yields as traders built bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates later this year. A plummet in gold prices to five-year lows under $1,100 an ounce also increased the appeal of the greenback, the world's reserve currency. Last week, U.S. Fed Chair Janet Yellen testified before Congress, reiterating U.S. interest rates will go up later this year if the economy continues to expand. St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard told Fox Business network on Monday there was a higher than 50 percent chance the U.S. central bank will raise rates in September." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed rate-hike speculation lifts U.S. dollar to three-month high