Investment/Trends

The ‘new GDP’ methodology: What you need to know

"The Commerce Department has made changes to how it calculates gross domestic product, designed to have the data better reflect the so-called knowledge economy. The U.S. government adjusted data all the way back to 1929, and other countries have or are about to make similar changes to their data. At the same time, the government also went back and revised data for the past five years.What’s the upshot? The rate of growth hasn’t changed all that much, though there are big shifts in a few time periods. But the level of output is higher — $559.8 billion larger, with $526 billion of that amount due to definitional changes." Continue reading →

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Four False Assumptions That Can Kill Your Portfolio

"It’s been so long since interest rates had a real 'up' cycle that Wall Street — and many average investors — have forgotten what that even looks like. Four toxic interest-rate assumptions have the potential to kill your portfolio: First, Wall Street thinks the Federal Reserve can control all interest rates with a few words or the wave of a monetary wand. Second, Wall Street thinks that when interest rates go up, it’s always a slow and gentle climb. Third, Wall Street thinks that rising interest rates are solely a consequence of an improving economy and nothing else. And fourth, Wall Street thinks that because of that, the impact will be benign." Continue reading →

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Hedging Bitcoin Mining Investments with Network Difficulty Futures

"One of the primary risks for a bitcoin miner is the time required to obtain hardware and the notion that with an exponentially growing bitcoin network, every extra delay dramatically affects the ROI of the would-be miner. Entering into a futures contract could mitigate a significant amount of that risk. One place to find such products is iCBIT, a bitcoin and bitcoin derivatives exchange. Those who buy a contract would benefit if the network difficulty increases more than expected by the expiration date and those who sell a contract would benefit if the network difficulty increases less than expected." Continue reading →

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Virtual Currency Gains Ground in Actual World

"Depending on whom you ask, bitcoins are a goofy geek invention with as much long-term value as Monopoly money — or a technology development that could transform currency the way e-mail and texting have transformed correspondence. A type of digital cash, bitcoins were invented in 2009 and can be sent directly to anyone, anywhere in the world. You don’t have to go through a financial institution, which means no fees and no one tracking your spending habits. With a current market capitalization of $1 billion, bitcoins are beginning to be more widely accepted. You can use them to pay for a pizza or [finance] your child’s college education." Continue reading →

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Company pensions in peril as shortfalls hit record

"Young workers may want to start counting on something other than company pensions to fund their retirements. It turns out that the plans of S&P 500 companies are underfunded to the tune of $451.7 billion, a number that has grown some 27 percent in just the last year alone. Though many workers have switched to 401(k) plans over the years, pensions still have far more workers—91 million to 51 million. This year actually was supposed to be better for pensions under an accounting trick Congress approved in 2012. The move would allow corporations to use a 15-year average of bond yields, rather than the current level, to calculate their obligations." Continue reading →

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Chart Of The Day: Foreigners Are Quietly Getting Out Of Dodge

"While the Fed is posturing daily whether it will or it won't monetize an ever greater portion of gross US issuance (and considering the drop in US funding needs, unless the Fed tapers it will soon very soon buy more than 100% of all 10 Year equivalent issuance going forward), foreigners have made their position vis-a-vis US paper loud and clear. What is their position? The following chart from today's TBAC presentation to the Treasury makes it very clear. With an ever declining, and recently the smallest on file, notional amount of Treasurys at auction going to foreigners since 2009 (and certainly much further back), they are not sticking around to see what happens." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingChart Of The Day: Foreigners Are Quietly Getting Out Of Dodge

Four Charts Showing How Obama’s Statist Agenda Is Hurting Jobs and Growth

"Let’s look at the Minneapolis Fed’s data for every business cycle since the end of World War II. As you can see, we’re currently mired in the most anemic recovery on record. The employment data is even worse than the GDP data. The comparison of Reaganomics with BushObamanomics is startling. There was a jobs boom in the 1980s, while today we haven’t even recovered all the jobs lost during the downturn. And if we look at the current 'recovery' compared to all other business cycles, it becomes even more apparent that big government is generating very bad results for the American people." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFour Charts Showing How Obama’s Statist Agenda Is Hurting Jobs and Growth

Obama delivers ‘full-throated defense’ of Larry Summers to House Democrats

"President Barack Obama defended Larry Summers’ credentials during a meeting with House Democrats on Wednesday. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA) told The Hill that Obama had given a 'full-throated defense' of Summers during the meet at the Capitol. Obama is rumored to be considering nominating Summers to replace Ben Bernanke as chairman of the Federal Reserve. Obama described Summers as a loyal and important adviser during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Summers had served as director of the U.S. National Economic Council under President Barack Obama. He resigned in 2010." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingObama delivers ‘full-throated defense’ of Larry Summers to House Democrats

Bitcoin Exchange Mt. Gox Still Grappling With Slowdown

"Mt. Gox has seen U.S.-dollar denominated trading volume fall, and has struggled to keep up with customer requests for their money. In June, it temporarily halted U.S. dollar-denominated withdrawals. In July, it announced that it had resumed withdrawals, but acknowledged it hasn’t been able to process them as fast as it would like. Several customers have contacted MoneyBeat describing the trouble they’ve experienced since in getting funds out of Mt. Gox. The company essentially said the problem lies not with itself, but with the financial system outside of virtual currencies. All of this has resulted in a less liquid market for bitcoin trading." Continue reading →

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Bank of England refuses comment on huge discrepancy in custodial gold reports

"The Bank of England refuses to explain what appears to be a huge discrepancy in its accounting of the gold it holds in custody, a difference of as much as 1,200 tonnes between the total reported in the bank's annual report in February and the total reported in a 'virtual tour' of the bank posted this month at the bank's Internet site. The discrepancy was noted by GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod last week during an interview with Max Keiser on the 'Keiser Report' program on the Russia Today television network." Continue reading →

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