Investment/Trends

Europe’s ‘recovery’ is a conjuring trick

"Stock market indices in Portugal, France and Spain are up by about 30 per cent. That’s pretty impressive for economies running on empty but is completely outshone by Greece, where the main index is now 64 per cent higher than in June 2012. There’s a temptation to look at the direction of travel and conclude that, even for the eurozone’s weaklings, the point of maximum danger is history. This is what EU leaders and the European Central Bank would like us to believe. At the core of this 'recovery' is a bluff that has yet to be called. In August last year, the European Central Bank’s president, Mario Draghi, promised to do 'whatever it takes' to defend the euro." Continue reading →

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A Western Alternative to the West

"Investors in Dubai needed patience. Even in 2011, stocks dropped another 20% before hitting rock bottom. The recovery started only last year, with shares up 20%. But the rally this year has been truly spectacular at 63% on the Dubai Financial Market. That’s against a falling trend in other emerging markets. The market has also massively outperformed the S&P 500. Indeed, it ranks among the best stock market performances in the world this year. It’s trounced the S&P 500. House prices have also recovered very strongly, though we are still a little shy of the peak valuations of 2008. For rental increases, Dubai is ranked No. 1 in the world this year." Continue reading →

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‘Way Harder’ For Goldman And Morgan Stanley To Get Out Of Commodities Than JP Morgan

"Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley two decades ago became known as the 'Wall Street Refiners' for their mastery of both financial and physical commodities. But since 2012 Morgan Stanley has looked at selling its commodity arm and Goldman has made moves to scale back its physical operations. Letters between the banks and the Federal Reserve, received by Reuters under the Freedom of Information Act, show both banks are in discussions on conforming or divesting activities that fall outside the normal scope of commercial banks." Continue reading →

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Silver Vault for 200 Tons Starts in Singapore as Wealthy Buy

"The new facility is 30 percent booked at the opening, said Joshua Rotbart, precious-metals general manager at owner Malca-Amit Global Ltd. The storage will add to the firm’s five vaults at the Singapore FreePort, which are fully reserved for gold, he said in an interview. The repository can hold $128 million of silver at today’s prices. The number of individuals with $1 million or more in investible assets climbed to 3.68 million in the Asia-Pacific region in 2012. The Singapore government has been promoting the country as a bullion-trading hub, removing a 7 percent sales tax on investment-grade precious metals in 2012. " Continue reading →

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Challenging a Long-Held Assumption about Commodities

"When it comes to oil demand, 17 years ago, China was a net exporter. Today, it is the second-largest importer, transporting 5.4 million barrels of oil into the country every day. That’s why it is widely accepted that the Asian giant spurred higher commodity prices in the past decade. And if the country was the force behind the boom, then the assumption is that China’s lower, but still healthy growth will be a drag on commodity prices. But recent research challenges this assumption. According to BCA Research’s Chen Zhao, what is initially an 'outrageous proposition' may not actually be." Continue reading →

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Bullish at the Bottom: Why Now is the Time to Buy Commodities

"At first glance, the correction seems to support naysayers who believe the supercycle in commodities has ended, such as Credit Suisse analysts who had declared that the 'era is over' in its digital magazine The Financialist. We disagree. Instead, we see severe price declines as possible buying opportunities during this ongoing commodity supercycle. Consider the extreme pessimism on gold. As one measure of how bears have ganged up against the yellow metal, take a look at the spike in the level of short positions on the precious metal since the beginning of the year. As of the beginning of July, the number of outstanding gold short contracts was close to 140,000!" Continue reading →

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Marc Faber on shadow banking, market psychology, & the global impact of American monetary policy

"Marc Faber is an economic authority on global macroeconomics, capital markets, and investment and the Editor & Publisher of 'The Gloom Boom & Doom Report'. He spoke with The Prospect Group about easy monetary policy and credit growth, asset price volatility, and the Fed." Continue reading →

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US Rents Hit Record Highs As Homeownership Plunges To 18 Year Lows

"The raw homeownership rate of 65.0% was unchanged from last quarter and 0.4% lower than a year ago. And on a seasonally adjusted basis, the percentage of Americans who have a house declined from 65.2% to 65.1%: the lowest since 1995. Obviously the flipside to most 'children' in their mid-30s still living in their parents' basements is that those wishing to brave the New Normal world will have to spend a lot for rent. A record lot in fact: the median asking rent for US vacant housing units just hit an all time high of $735 per month. The pain is most acute for those renting in the Northeast, where the median rent soared by $65 to a record high of $961." Continue reading →

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Peter Schiff: Buy Gold and Silver Now, Money Printing Until We Have A Currency Crisis & More

"Fed Chief Ben Bernanke is going to be replaced by the end of this year. CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals, Peter Schiff, speculates on his replacement by saying, 'If it's solely based on which Fed Chairman is the most bullish for gold and silver, I would say that would be Janet Yellen. No matter who's put in at the Fed, they are going to keep printing because that's all they can do.' Schiff warns, 'They're going to keep printing until we have a currency crisis . . . and that is the most bullish environment for gold. Don't wait for the crisis to buy because you are not going to like the price.'" Continue reading →

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The Debt Ceiling Battle Is Coming

"A working paper by economist James Hamilton, of UC San Diego, for the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that the official federal debt, $16.7 trillion, is the tip of the iceberg. Currently, the feds are $86.8 trillion in debt, according to Hamilton. The Treasury department has been looting government pensions to hold the debt ceiling at bay. This can go on for another month or so until the battle in Congress begins again. Sunday, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew pre-empted the debt ceiling fight with a strike against the GOP on Meet the Press. Lew predictably blamed the debt ceiling for the S&P crash of summer 2011." Continue reading →

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