Investment/Trends

People Are Using Borrowed Money To Buy Stock Like It’s 2007 Or 1999

"Deutsche Bank has a monster note out on margin debt that has been making the rounds. The conclusion of the note is rather simple – today’s euphoric borrowing on margin to buy stocks is reminiscent of past bubbly equity market periods (see here for more). The note reviews commentary from the 1999 & 2007 periods and compares it to what’s being said today. So, are we in a 2007 or 2000 type environment? Yes. I would say we are given that the data is confirming the same sort of market trends and debt trends. But the question is what’s the trigger? The market is kind of like a Jenga set at this stage in the cycle." Continue reading →

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Chicago’s Cash-on-Hand Plunges

"Mayor Rahm Emanuel closed the books on 2012 with $33.4 million in unallocated cash on hand — down from $167 million the year before — while adding to the mountain of debt piled on Chicago taxpayers, year-end audits show, reports the Chicago Sun Times. Last week, Moody’s Investors ordered an unprecedented triple-drop in the city’s bond rating, citing Chicago’s 'very large and growing' pension liabilities, 'significant' debt service payments, 'unrelenting public safety demands'." Continue reading →

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A (Photovoltaic) Silver Bull in China

"Early this month, big news came out of China. It may have gone unnoticed by some investors—and there's really no reason why it would have been covered extensively by mainstream media—but it's important if you're a silver investor. China raised its target for solar generating capacity to more than 35 gigawatts (GW) by 2015, a stunning increase of 67% above the previous target. In addition to China, India plans to increase its solar output to 20 GW by 2020, starting essentially from the scratch. On a worldwide basis, solar power generating capacity is projected to be 20 to 40 times the amount of current capacity by 2020." Continue reading →

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The Soviet Setup is Now the China Setup

"The most lucrative trade of 90's Soviet period was obtaining a bank loan (there were only state banks). Which was easy as long as you paid bank manager 20% straight in the pocket. It was up to you what you did with the 80%. Fast forward to today's China. Special investment financing vehicle and state bank loan architecture has been in place for a long time and not just since 2008. As you can imagine such vehicles are predominantly used to skim a little bit off the top. Operator gets rich, lender gets rich, party official gets rich. 2008-2009 RMB 4trn stimulus is the payday system the operators were waiting for, a once in a lifetime chance." Continue reading →

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Should Detroit’s Bankruptcy Be an Early-Warning Sign for Washington?

"There’s no way a bailout of Detroit goes through the House of Representatives. Heck, I don’t even think it could make it through the Senate. So some folks on the left would be justified if they asked why the high rollers on Wall Street supposedly deserved a bailout a few years ago but they don’t get one today. The answer, of course, is discrimination by color. But I’m not talking black vs white. The color that matters in politics is green. The financial industry dispenses huge campaign contributions to both sides of the aisle, and the bailout was their payoff. Public employee unions, by contrast, give almost every penny of their money to Democrats." Continue reading →

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America’s public finances: The Unsteady States of America

"Detroit’s population has fallen by 60% since 1950. The murder rate is 11 times the national average. The previous mayor is in prison. Shrubs, weeds and raccoons have reclaimed empty neighbourhoods. The debts racked up when Detroit was big and rich are unpayable now that it is smaller and poor. Though some of its woes are unique, a crucial one is not. Many other state and city governments across America have made impossible-to-keep promises to do with pensions and health care. Detroit shows what can happen when leaders put off reforming the public sector for too long." Continue reading →

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Federal Reserve expected to stay the course on near-zero interest rate

"Markets appeared to ignore his assertion that the Fed’s key federal funds rate, at 0.0-0.25 percent since December 2008, would not rise before 2015. Interest rates jumped more than a full percentage point in two months, pushing mortgage rates suddenly higher, raising concerns they could snuff out the housing market recovery, one of the few bright spots in the sluggish economy. In later comments, particularly two days of twice-yearly testimony to Congress in mid-July, Bernanke sought to assure markets that the near-zero interest rate would stay put for a while, given the 'weak' economy. 'If we were to tighten policy, the economy would tank,' he told lawmakers." Continue reading →

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Wall Street: The Next Fed Chief Should Keep the Presses Running

"'Monetary policy has little scope to stimulate the economy,' Summers suggested in September 2008, 'given how low interest rates already are and the problems in the financial system.' Since then, the Fed has bought $2.3 trillion in Treasury and mortgage bonds. It also increased the money supply to unprecedented levels. In contrast, the other front-runner, Federal Reserve vice chair Janet Yellen, said back in March she would not taper anytime soon. CNBC’s poll of Wall Street analysts indicated they believed Yellen would better manage a financial crisis. Translation: She is more likely to keep the presses hot." Continue reading →

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US judge says ex-AIG CEO can depose Bernanke over bailout

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should testify in the lawsuit by American International Group Inc's former chief Maurice 'Hank' Greenberg against the United States over the insurer's 2008 bailout, a judge ruled on Monday. Judge Thomas Wheeler of the U.S. Court of Federal Claims rejected the government's effort to keep Bernanke from being deposed, saying the Fed chairman was a 'central figure' in the decision to bail out AIG. 'Indeed, the court cannot fathom having to decide this multi-billion dollar claim without the testimony of such a key government decision maker,' Wheeler wrote." Continue reading →

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Will the Federal Reserve Taper Off on QE?

"Why on earth would Mister Bernanke announce at this time that the Fed might taper off on QE? After all, Mister Bernanke is a committed Keynesian. Further, he is an ardent fan of President Roosevelt and his economic 'solutions.' So, what's up? It is highly unlikely that the leopard is changing his spots. Rather than assume he has, we might want to consider that his recent announcement to taper off on QE is a mere smokescreen – a tactic that will create a scare sufficient to give the Fed license to print like never before." Continue reading →

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