Investment/Trends

U.S. bailout places ‘Puerto Rico’s democracy at risk’

"The U.S. Senate is considering a bill called the Puerto Rico Assistance Act of 2015. It offers minor assistance: a temporary reduction in payroll taxes and a 'development fund' of $3 billion. But the real purpose of this bill is the installation of a six-member Financial Control Authority. That authority, if it gets the chance, will rule over Puerto Rico. Completely. What this legislation contemplates is beyond extraordinary; it is essentially the destruction of whatever semblance of genuine democracy currently rules the island. According to the bill, five members will be appointed by the U.S. President. The sixth will be the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury, who will also serve as Chairman." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingU.S. bailout places ‘Puerto Rico’s democracy at risk’

Only in Argentina: Where Minus 3% Bond Yields Are All the Rage [2015]

"While the bonds yield minus 3.1 percent, it’s a small price to pay in a country where capital controls have caused multiple black-market exchange rates to proliferate and rampant inflation has eroded the value of peso deposits. Foreign companies, prevented from repatriating dividends because of the controls, are also buying the securities as a hedge against a potential devaluation, which has become more likely as trading partners from Brazil to China weaken their own currencies, said Eduardo Levy-Yeyati, director of economic consultant Elypsis. The government sold the equivalent of $1.1 billion of dollar-linked bonds due in 2017 on Tuesday, the first such sale in nine months." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingOnly in Argentina: Where Minus 3% Bond Yields Are All the Rage [2015]

After QE failure, BOJ’s Kuroda says no plan to ease policy now

"Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday he had no plan to expand monetary stimulus now, blaming sharp declines in oil costs for keeping consumer inflation distant from the bank's ambitious 2 percent target. While he maintained his optimistic view of the economy, Kuroda stressed his resolve to ease monetary policy further if risks threaten achievement of the BOJ's price target. The remarks, made in response to a question by an opposition lawmaker, pushed down Japanese stocks on disappointment that no immediate monetary stimulus was forthcoming." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingAfter QE failure, BOJ’s Kuroda says no plan to ease policy now

Saudi Arabia’s Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big Deal

"That question -- unanswered since the 1970s, under an unusual blackout by the U.S. Treasury Department -- has come to the fore as Saudi Arabia is pressured by plunging oil prices and costly wars in the Middle East. As a matter of policy, the Treasury has never disclosed the holdings of Saudi Arabia, long a key ally in the volatile Middle East, and instead groups it with 14 other mostly OPEC nations including Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Nigeria. Apart from the kingdom itself, only a handful of Treasury officials, and those at the Federal Reserve who compile the data on their behalf, have a clear picture of Saudi Arabia’s U.S. debt holdings and whether they’re rising or falling." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingSaudi Arabia’s Secret Holdings of U.S. Debt Are Suddenly a Big Deal

Ron Paul Says to Watch the Petrodollar

"From 1972 to 1974, the U.S. government made a series of agreements with Saudi Arabia. These agreements created the petrodollar system. The U.S. government chose Saudi Arabia because of its vast petroleum reserves, its dominant position in OPEC, and the (correct) perception that the Saudi royal family was corruptible. In essence, the petrodollar system was an agreement that the U.S. would guarantee the survival of the House of Saud. It’s hard to overstate how much the petrodollar system benefits the U.S. dollar. It’s allowed the U.S. government and many Americans to live beyond their means for decades." Continue reading →

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Saudis ‘will not destroy the US shale industry’: hedge funds

"Hedge funds and private equity groups armed with $60bn of ready cash are poised to snap up the assets of bankrupt US shale drillers, almost guaranteeing that America’s tight oil production will rebound as soon as prices start to recover. Mr Yergin said groups with deep pockets such as Blackstone and Carlyle will take over the infrastructure when the distressed assets are cheap enough, and bide their time until the oil cycle turns. Many shale bonds are trading at distress level below 50 cents on the dollar, even for mid-risk companies. Banks are being careful not to push them into receivership but they themselves are under pressure." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingSaudis ‘will not destroy the US shale industry’: hedge funds

JPMorgan: China’s Potential Capital Outflows ‘Practically Boundless’

"China has seen nearly $1 trillion in capital leave the nation since the second quarter of 2014, and according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase, the sky's the limit for outflows going forward. The causes of these massive capital outflows, which have prompted the People's Bank of China to tap the country's war chest of reserves to support the currency, have grown more numerous in the second half of 2015, argues a team led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Amid the broadening of sources of downward pressure on the yuan, however, a major factor that may have restrained the central bank from devaluing the currency in a big way has vanished." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJPMorgan: China’s Potential Capital Outflows ‘Practically Boundless’

European Central Bank sued by 200 investors over Greek debt deal

"In a case which could pave the way for a raft of legal action from the private sector, a group of Italian retail investors are claiming damages in excess of €12m from the ECB for an alleged violation of its 'equal' creditor status during the biggest private sector debt restructuring in history in 2012. During the episode, the ECB was able to 'swap' its holdings of Greek government debt for protected bonds with no repayment date. The move ensured the ECB did not suffer losses from the deal to stave off a Greek bankruptcy in March 2012. Private sector creditors, however, were forced into accepting a 53.5pc 'haircut' on their holdings." Continue reading →

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In Copenhagen, Apartment Prices Jump 60% After Rates Go Negative

"Denmark’s biggest mortgage bank says there’s a 'real risk' Copenhagen is heading into a property bubble. Property prices in Copenhagen have risen 40-60 percent since the middle of 2012, when the central bank first resorted to negative interest rates to defend the krone’s peg to the euro. The benchmark deposit rate has been minus 0.75 percent since February as Denmark’s currency war intensified, and most analysts surveyed by Bloomberg see negative rates lasting at least through 2017. The Danish regulator this month warned Danske Bank against pursuing a growth strategy in Sweden as the housing market there shows signs of imbalances." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIn Copenhagen, Apartment Prices Jump 60% After Rates Go Negative

Fed ends ‘too big to fail’ lending to collapsing banks, with caveats

"The Fed's new restrictions come from the Dodd-Frank Act of 2010, which brought in a wave of reforms after the financial crisis. Under the new rule, banks that are going bankrupt -- or appear to be going bankrupt -- can no longer receive emergency funds from the Fed under any circumstances. However, it's important to note that the new rule allows the Fed to judge by its own measures whether a firm qualifies for its emergency aid. The idea is the Fed can still lend to banks during times of emergency, but the bank must be able to pay it back. Yet the true health of a bank in turmoil can be very difficult to assess." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed ends ‘too big to fail’ lending to collapsing banks, with caveats