Investment/Trends

The Logical Conclusion of the Modern, Monetary Argument

"One of the most terrible things about the globalization of finance, money and industry is that it homogenizes booms and busts. There is literally nowhere to go. As economic centralization continues, these cycles will only worsen. These days in the West – and certainly in Washington – Republicans are sure they can mandate a technocratic interest-rate rule that will restrain the Fed from doing inordinate damage to the economy. Ironically, Democrats argue for more flexibility and less government interference regarding money. This would be admirable from a free-market standpoint except that they are arguing on behalf of a MONOPOLY facility. As usual, both parties get it wrong." Continue reading →

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Fed looks at imposing exit fees on bond funds

"Federal Reserve officials have discussed whether regulators should impose exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining concern about the vulnerability of the $10 trillion corporate bond market. US retail investors have pumped more than $1 trillion into bond funds since early 2009. This has created a boom environment for fixed income money managers, but raises the prospect of a massive disorganized flight of money out of the industry should interest rates rise sharply in the coming years. Exit fees would seek to discourage retail investors from withdrawing funds, thereby making their claims less liquid and making a fire sale of the assets more unlikely." Continue reading →

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The Feds Step Up Utility Growth

"Federal regulators’ recent move to change the criteria used to calculate regulated utilities’ allowed returns may be a small victory for income investors. Over the past few years, regulators pared utility profits in response to ultra-low Treasury rates. But investors and energy executives have long argued that these historically low rates are a market distortion created by Federal Reserve stimulus and, therefore, do not accurately reflect utilities’ actual operating environment. The order in late June by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), the agency that regulates the transmission and wholesale sale of electricity in interstate commerce, finally acknowledged this reality." Continue reading →

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The Fed Chairs Have a Habit of Hazing

"Paul Volcker took over as Chair of the Fed in August 1979. A recession officially began five months later. This was the worst recession since the Great Depression. In August 1987 Alan Greenspan took over the Fed. Two months later 'Black Monday' occurred on October 19, 1987, when the Dow dropped 22.6% that day alone–the worst one-day crash in history. In February 2006 Ben Bernanke became Fed chair. The worst recession since the Great Depression officially began in December 2007, and you may recall there was some trouble in the financial markets in September 2008… In January 2014 Janet Yellen became Fed chair." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

"Debt is always and everywhere a worry and a threat. It must be repaid. The more of it there is outstanding, the more cause for worry. Who won’t be able to pay? And if he doesn’t pay, will his creditors still be solvent? What if the currency goes down? What if inflation goes up? Debt raises questions… and makes the financial system fragile. As the quantity of debt increases, in other words, the quality should go the opposite direction. It doesn’t make sense for the amount of debt to increase as the price of it increases, too. It is contrary to the most basic law of supply and demand. And yet, yesterday, the price of debt went up… even as the supply of debt worldwide reaches epochal levels." Continue reading →

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Fed Hawks Want Rate Hikes Soon

"A trio of inflation hawks at the Federal Reserve — Richard Fisher, Esther George and Charles Plosser — believe it's about time to take the punch bowl away. The three regional Fed bank presidents are on a mission to urge their colleagues to take a tougher monetary policy stance, CNNMoney reported. If they are successful, Americans would be hit with higher rates on mortgages, small business loans and credit cards, and many on Wall Street fear bonds and stocks would also suffer. But the Fed hawks believe the alternative to tighter policy could be high inflation and more dangerous asset bubbles." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: Is Ms Yellen making history?

"See how easy investment analysis is. Even a Fed chairman can do it. 'Get out of social media and biotech,' she practically urged investors. 'Buy blue chips and the broad market.' In this, Ms. Yellen is not just making headlines; she's making history. As far as we know, no other Fed chairman has ever offered sector analysis. We'd like to see her portfolio. Here is a woman who not only observes markets; she moves them. In the event, investors sold the sectors she warned against, and bought the broad market...sending the Dow back to record territory. What a fortune you could make if you knew what she'd say next! And what a dope you'd be if you believed her." Continue reading →

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Robbing Peter

"Spain may defend its decision by pointing out that it has one of the lowest tax takes in the European Union, which is true. However, what should be the issue here is not the amount of tax being imposed, but the principle upon which the tax is being taken. Let there be no doubt about this bail-in or any other—it is pure theft. The measure in Spain is also an advance on the concept that, as long as an emergency is perceived to exist, confiscation is justified. In Spain, no emergency situation is being pretended; they simply want the money and have decided to take it." Continue reading →

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Spain Issues Retroactive 0.03% Tax on Bank Deposits

"Spain will retroactively tax bank deposits to January 1, 2014 stating the move will boost growth and job creation. Guru Huky correctly labeled the tax for what it is 'More than a tax, this looks like a mini seizure of deposits. Someone likely needs a few million and to balance the books.' The notion that a tax increase will boost the economy is of course absurd. But don't worry, it's only 0.03%, nudge nudge, wink wink ... for now." Continue reading →

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Bursting Switzerland’s bubble

"Last year, SNP chief Thomas Jordan requested a [buffer] to be introduced for Swiss banks, forcing them to hold an additional one percent of risk-weighted assets to stave off the potential dangers of the housing boom. Earlier this year, as worries about a bubble increased, the SNB instigated a number of policies to prevent any more dramatic rises. This included doubling the capital buffer requirement to two percent. However, despite a partial slowdown since January, Jordan told reporters in March that the work was not yet done. 'The pace has slowed, but we are far away from the soft landing we want. We don’t yet see the slowdown that we would like to see.'" Continue reading →

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