Investment/Trends

Economy Tanks … and Stocks Soar?

"Negative 1 percent. That’s how much the U.S. economy managed to 'grow' in the first quarter, according to the government’s revised estimate. After more than $800 billion in stimulus spending from Washington. After more than $3 trillion of QE from the Federal Reserve. After six-plus years of record-low interest rates … record levels of monetary intervention in the U.K., Japan and Europe … and the biggest bailouts in the history of the world. It’s much worse than the 0.1 percent gain the Commerce Department originally reported. It was twice as bad as the 0.5 percent decline economists were expecting. And it’s the worst reading since the first quarter of 2011." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingEconomy Tanks … and Stocks Soar?

Congrats grads! That’ll be $29,400

"The Class of 2012 graduated with an AVERAGE financial hangover of $29,400. In more expensive parts of the country like the Northeast, four-year degree students owed even more – almost $34,000. We’re not just talking about a handful of students, either. More than 7 in 10 graduates had at least some debt when they got their degrees. The growth in debt is far outpacing the growth in income, too, rising at a rate of about 6 percent per year over the past half-decade. All told, student loan debt now totals around $1.1 TRILLION. That’s almost quadruple the level of a decade earlier. It’s now the single biggest category of consumer debt outside of home mortgages." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingCongrats grads! That’ll be $29,400

Bailout Banks Made Riskier Loans: Study [2011]

"The government bailout made banks appear safer but actually caused them to take on more credit risk, according to a University of Michigan study released Wednesday. According to a working paper by finance professors Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura of the university of Michigan's Ross School of Business entitled Safer Ratios, Riskier Portfolios: Banks' Response to Government Aid, banks participating in the government's Capital Purchase Program as part of the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, 'significantly increased their investments in risky securities,' by 10%, 'displacing safer assets, such as Treasury bonds, short-term paper, and cash equivalents.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBailout Banks Made Riskier Loans: Study [2011]

U.S. Gov. Gets $2.6 Billion In Credit Suisse ‘Money Laundering’ Case

"Credit Suisse is the largest financial company to plead guilty to the non-crime of 'money laundering' in 20 years. The plea marks the end of an era. One of the shell entities implicated, according to the government, dated back a century – or just after the creation of the federal tax code and the income tax. Of the $2.6 billion fine, The Department of Justice will receive $1.8 billion and New York State's top financial regulator, Benjamin Lawsky, will receive $715 million of the stolen loot. With the FATCA coming into full effect on January 1, 2016, and the US government actively prosecuting banks, only savvy Americans will be able to find financial institutions abroad to service them." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingU.S. Gov. Gets $2.6 Billion In Credit Suisse ‘Money Laundering’ Case

10 of the Best ETF Trades of All Time

"Timing the market has fascinated, frustrated, and confused the heck out of countless investors. Whether you’re a self-directed trader or a professional money manager, it’s very likely you’ve found yourself looking through charts, thinking: if only I could’ve had a piece of that trend! While it’s true that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, there is still a great deal of insights to be extracted from analyzing past booms and busts on Wall Street [see A Brief History of ETF Bubbles]. Below we take a stroll down memory lane with perfect hindsight and look at some of the best ETF trades of all time, highlighting their performance as well as any noteworthy lessons from each case." Continue reading →

Continue Reading10 of the Best ETF Trades of All Time

India easing gold import restrictions: Curb your enthusiasm

"Last week gold was boosted by news that the Reserve Bank of India is relaxing the much-maligned 80-20 import-export measure. Hopes that the measure could be fully phased out by October, ahead of the Diwali festival in October and the crucial gold-buying wedding season, has already seen the rupee price of gold drop to nine-month lows. Last month Rajesh Khosla, managing director of the country’s biggest refiner which is expanding capacity to 200 tonnes of gold per year, predicted the relaxation of the 80-20 rule, but added that 'while the form of restrictions may change, the government will continue to restrain buying.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndia easing gold import restrictions: Curb your enthusiasm

China reverts to credit as property slump threatens economy

"New housing starts fell by 15pc in April from a year earlier, with effects rippling through the steel and cement industries. Land sales fell by 20pc, eating into government income. The Chinese central bank has ordered 15 commercial banks to boost loans to first-time buyers and 'expedite the approval and disbursement of mortgage loans', the latest sign that it is backing away from monetary tightening. The authorities are now in an analogous position to Western central banks following years of stimulus: reliant on an asset boom to keep growth going. Each attempt to rein in China’s $25 trillion credit bubble seems to trigger wider tremors, and soon has to be reversed." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingChina reverts to credit as property slump threatens economy

Lessons from the Great Austrian Inflation

"One of these tragic episodes that is worth recalling and learning from was the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the accompanying Great Austrian Inflation in the immediate postwar period in the early 1920s. For those who say that such things as a hyperinflation, economic chaos, capital consumption and political tyranny 'can't happen here,' it is worth remembering that a hundred years ago, in 1914, few in prewar Vienna could have imagined that it would happen there." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingLessons from the Great Austrian Inflation

Hawks Take Flight: Why the Fed’s Hypocritical Dialectic Continues

"The Fed's monetary expansion ended in 1929. The 1950s equity rise ended with a bust in the early 1960s. The Nifty Fifty fad ended with the Crash of 1969. The market recovery of the 1970s ended in 1982. The next crash was in 1987. In 1994, an expansion gave way to a recession. A great tech expansion turned sour in 2001. A housing bubble deflated violently in 2008, not just in the US but around the world. And that is where we are now. This expansion has been driven relentlessly upward for some five-plus years. Another year or two and this latest 'Wall Street Party' will be finished. We anticipate a downturn that will be as violent or even more so than 2008." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingHawks Take Flight: Why the Fed’s Hypocritical Dialectic Continues

Barclays fined $44 million over gold price fixing

"A U.K. financial regulator has fined Barclays (BCS) $43.8 million after it accused a former trader at the bank of improperly influencing gold prices. The British bank will be fined £26 million ($43.8 million) for failures that allowed trader Daniel James Plunkett to exploit the weaknesses in Barclays' systems and controls to seek to influence the price of gold, which allowed the firm to 'profit at a customer's expense,' according to a news release. The fine was handed down by the Financial Conduct Authority. Separately, Plunkett was fined £95,600, or about $161,000." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBarclays fined $44 million over gold price fixing