Investment/Trends

Bill Bonner: Why the Crowd Is About to Get Destroyed in US Stocks

"In the US, as in Japan, QE does not help stimulate a real recovery. But it does help simulate one. House prices are up (thanks, in part, to ultra-low mortgage rates). The middle class has more 'wealth' (albeit the paper kind) due to gains in their stock market portfolios. The rich are feeling fat and sassy, too. The Fed can continue modest tapering. But this is likely to produce a selloff in the stock market. Then the Fed will stop tapering. But it will be too late to reverse the damage to equities. They will go down for many years… bringing us even closer to the Japanese model. Our guess now is that this situation will persist for a few years." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: Why the Crowd Is About to Get Destroyed in US Stocks

Weather seems to blame for U.S. slowdown, Fed’s Yellen says

"Unusually harsh winter weather appears to be behind recent signs of weakness in the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said on Thursday, suggesting the central bank was poised to press forward in ratcheting back its stimulus. Testifying to the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said the Fed would watch carefully to ensure weather was indeed the culprit, but she reiterated that it would take a 'significant change' to the economy's prospects for the Fed to put plans to wind down its bond-buying program on hold. The world's largest economy added fewer than 200,000 jobs combined in December and January, well below expectations." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWeather seems to blame for U.S. slowdown, Fed’s Yellen says

Mongolia at a crossroad as boom brings challenges

"Dozens of office buildings are being erected at quick pace, while residential developments featuring fancy colours and rococo terraces are rising just across the road. Ulan Bator’s construction boom is adding new momentum to the country’s economic growth. Mongolia’s vast, largely untapped deposits of gold, copper, coal and uranium might be worth as much as US $3 trillion. In a country of only 2.8 million people, that represents a huge opportunity. 'By 2030, Mongolia will become one of the three richest countries in Asia by GDP per capita after Singapore and Japan,' Alisher Ali, founder of the investment group Silk Road Finance, said earlier this year in an interview." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingMongolia at a crossroad as boom brings challenges

Bill Bonner: An Important Update on Our New ‘Trade of the Decade’

"The Nikkei 225 rose 57% for the year – the best year for the index since 1972. Meanwhile, Japanese prime minister, Shinzo Abe… aided and abetted by new Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda… goosed the annual inflation rate up to 1%. This had the effect of sending the yen down 15% against the dollar. Great for Japan’s exporters. Terrible for Japan’s fixed-income securities. So, we made good money on both sides of the trade last year. By our rough, back-of-the-envelope ciphering, our 'Trade of the Decade' is up about 50% so far… with seven more years to run. What will happen in those next seven years?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: An Important Update on Our New ‘Trade of the Decade’

The Bearish/Bullish Conundrum

"At some point there will be a breakdown. Real market forces will reassert themselves. But 'when' is not easy to discern. I personally know people who are continually trying to sell this market short and are surrendering over and over because the timing is not right. The IPO market is revving up; top central banking doves are in place; the JOBS Act is ready to pour its promotions on receptive investors around the world; central banks are coordinating money printing in ways never seen before; gold remains down. It is sensible to predict the demise of this empyrean equity fairy tale. But those elite bankers controlling the central banking money printing have different ideas." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Bearish/Bullish Conundrum

Austrian Economics, Central Bank Disasters and the Housing Bottom

"Business cycles are in a sense predictable because the entire economic environment is structured via central bank money printing. It is this artificiality that makes Austrian economic forecasting viable. What one can never predict, of course, is the timing of the 'turning.' Exactly where we are in the business cycle is uncertain, though again, one can certainly point out that we are in a precious metals bull market, even despite the recent difficulties of gold. This particular pro-metals market started early in the 2000s and may well continue until we reach a precious metals 'mania' of sorts as we saw in the 1970s. The only way to puncture something like that in the short term is to raise interest rates." Continue reading →

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India may ease gold import curbs later this month

"Indian officials are in discussions to cut a record high import duty on gold and relax rules on exports, government sources said, after the measures helped narrow the country's trade deficit and now threaten to encourage smuggling. With three duty hikes last year to a record 10 percent and onerous restrictions tying purchases to exports, official arrivals shrank almost 90 percent in the six months to November, helping China displace India as the world's top gold buyer. The decision to cut the import duty is likely to be taken anytime this month, said one of the government sources, who has direct knowledge of the deliberations but did not want to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndia may ease gold import curbs later this month

India may ease gold import curbs later this month

"Indian officials are in discussions to cut a record high import duty on gold and relax rules on exports, government sources said, after the measures helped narrow the country's trade deficit and now threaten to encourage smuggling. With three duty hikes last year to a record 10 percent and onerous restrictions tying purchases to exports, official arrivals shrank almost 90 percent in the six months to November, helping China displace India as the world's top gold buyer. The decision to cut the import duty is likely to be taken anytime this month, said one of the government sources, who has direct knowledge of the deliberations but did not want to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndia may ease gold import curbs later this month

India Gets The (Bitcoin) Green Light

"Following a press conference organised by Bitcoins Alliance India, Unocoin, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges in India has been given the green light allowing users to continue accessing their accounts as of today (6th of January 2014) with regular trading commencing on the 8th January. The conference was headed by India’s top taxation and legal expert Mr Nishith Desai, Founder & Managing Partner of Nishith Desai Associates. Mr Desai has meticulously analysed the techno-legal perspective of Bitcoin inline with current payment and currency laws and concluded that Bitcoins are in fact a legitimate currency and could provide many benefits to India’s economy." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndia Gets The (Bitcoin) Green Light

India Gets The (Bitcoin) Green Light

"Following a press conference organised by Bitcoins Alliance India, Unocoin, one of the largest Bitcoin exchanges in India has been given the green light allowing users to continue accessing their accounts as of today (6th of January 2014) with regular trading commencing on the 8th January. The conference was headed by India’s top taxation and legal expert Mr Nishith Desai, Founder & Managing Partner of Nishith Desai Associates. Mr Desai has meticulously analysed the techno-legal perspective of Bitcoin inline with current payment and currency laws and concluded that Bitcoins are in fact a legitimate currency and could provide many benefits to India’s economy." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIndia Gets The (Bitcoin) Green Light