John Williams: Pulling Back the Curtain on Phony Government Statistics

"The crux of the dollar-debasement and ultimate, severe-inflation/hyperinflation issues indeed is this political inability of the United States to cover its long-range obligations, other than by printing the money it needs. Based on the US Treasury's financial accounting of the federal government using generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), the GAAP-based federal budget deficit was $6.6 trillion in fiscal-year 2012 (year ended September 30). Well beyond the simple cash-based deficit of $1.1 trillion in fiscal 2012, the GAAP-based annual deficits have been in the range of $4 to $5 trillion for the six years leading up to 2012." Continue reading

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Bernanke backpedals, says Federal Reserve stimulus still needed

"Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the Fed’s easy-money policy is still necessary, throwing cold water on fresh market expectations that the Fed’s stimulus would soon be ended. Bernanke told an audience of economists in Cambridge, Massachusetts, that the jobs market remains too weak and inflation remains too low for comfort. He also warned that the full impact of steep government spending cuts initiated in March was yet to be seen. Together, the evidence underscored the need for the Fed to keep in place its highly accommodative monetary policy, he said." Continue reading

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Japan Government To Change Inflation Calculation Ushering In Even More BOJ Liquidity

"The official explanation for this upcoming adoption of core-core-CPI which also excludes energy prices in addition to fresh food costs (as core CPI does everywhere else in the world) is to 'raise the bar' on Abe's inflation goal. In reality, it will simply grant the BOJ unlimited ammo to continue injecting liquidity indefinitely because absent exploding energy costs (as we have discussed), inflation in Japan is quite dormant. But what will really happen is that inflation will merely become just one more governmentally-determined and goalseeked economic indicator and policy tool, as it is in the US and China." Continue reading

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Why Serial Asset Bubbles Are Now The New Normal

"Asset bubbles are inevitable when the pool of good investment opportunities is much smaller than the pool of credit-money sloshing around seeking a higher yield. It really is that simple. It's astonishingly easy to create hot money: just create the money in a central bank and then make it available to financiers, investment banks, global corporations and other Financial Elites at near-zero real rates of interest. It's considerably more difficult to create a good investment opportunity: an investment that is worthy of the risk must have a sound base in fundamentals such as cash flow, return on investment, etc." Continue reading

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Peter Schiff on Bullion Banks, and the Hidden Trove of QE Money

"Perianne talks about the Fed and gold with Peter Schiff. Justine Underhill presents a chart to explain just exactly what the Fed has been doing vis a vis QE. Also, in the US, the big banks have had to submit 'living wills' to regulators -- basically, a blueprint for their wind-down should they become insolvent -- or, more insolvent, we guess. But the central bank of central banks, which is the Bank for International Settlements, just came out with its own plan for how to deal with too-big-to-fail. It's 'simple,' they say. Just let the creditors and depositors take losses -- a la Cyprus -- and force the creditors to recapitalize a new banking entity." Continue reading

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Everything Created Digitally Is Nearly Free–Including Money

"The key feature of digitally creating credit/money is this: it is immeasurably easier to digitally create claims on real-world assets than it is to create real-world assets. This is why the digital creation of trillions of dollars in credit/money is distorting and disrupting the real economy of real-world assets: the claims on those assets keep expanding while the actual assets remain stubbornly tied to the real world. This widening disconnect between rapidly multiplying digitally created claims on real assets and the actual assets has spawned a multitude of pernicious consequences." Continue reading

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Can the Fed Become Insolvent?

"In light of my recent posts on Morgan Stanley’s analysis of this question–which show that a rise of less than a percentage point across the yield curve would render the Fed 'bankrupt'–let me direct you to my original Mises.org essay on this question. I walk through various hypothetical Fed balance sheets to show what we mean by saying it could become insolvent. Then, in this article I walk through the January 2011 change in accounting rules that was instituted so that technically, the Fed can’t have negative equity from a fall in its asset prices. It would, however, drive home to more people around the world just how screwy our 'modern' monetary system really is." Continue reading

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Gideon Gono is Not Disappointing Me

"I have just started reading former Zimbabwe central banker Gideon Gono's book, Zimababwe's Casino Economy. It is meeting my expectations. So far I have learned, he has four children, Passion, Prince, Pride and Praise. He has an undergraduate correspondence degree from Rapid Results College and in the book, he slams critics of his honorary PhD degree from the University of Zimbabwe. In a Krugman-would-be-proud fashion, Gono informs in the book, that toward the end of his reign as head of the central bank, inflation hit 231 million percent annually." Continue reading

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Detlev Schlichter: Forward Guidance? – Nonsense! Central bankers have no choice.

"This was the first policy meeting under new Bank of England governor Mark Carney, the ‘most talented central banker of his generation’ to some, the most overpaid bureaucrat in the world to others. But credit where credit is due. Carney is a marketing genius. Not only when it comes to marketing himself, but also when it comes to selling policy paralysis as strategy. Never before has the phrase 'What can we do? We can only stick to what we have done for years.', so effectively been presented as at the BoE’s press conference yesterday. It is now called ‘guidance’, and it evidently requires a specific skill-set." Continue reading

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European Central Bankers Promise Monetary Inflation for Years

"It’s official: the Bank of England and the European Central Bank announced a policy of guaranteed counterfeiting on a permanent basis. They will keep short-term interest rates low for years. They did not say for how many years. The promise of unlimited counterfeiting pushed up European stock markets. This joint announcement makes it clear that Europe’s central banks have no exit policy, any more than the Federal Reserve does. Once a central bank adopts monetary inflation, it cannot stop without creating a recession. Europe’s central bankers have decided that they prefer risking price inflation as opposed to recession." Continue reading

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