What Could Possibly Go Wrong

Fed looks at imposing exit fees on bond funds

"Federal Reserve officials have discussed whether regulators should impose exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining concern about the vulnerability of the $10 trillion corporate bond market. US retail investors have pumped more than $1 trillion into bond funds since early 2009. This has created a boom environment for fixed income money managers, but raises the prospect of a massive disorganized flight of money out of the industry should interest rates rise sharply in the coming years. Exit fees would seek to discourage retail investors from withdrawing funds, thereby making their claims less liquid and making a fire sale of the assets more unlikely." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed looks at imposing exit fees on bond funds

Bill Bonner: There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

"Debt is always and everywhere a worry and a threat. It must be repaid. The more of it there is outstanding, the more cause for worry. Who won’t be able to pay? And if he doesn’t pay, will his creditors still be solvent? What if the currency goes down? What if inflation goes up? Debt raises questions… and makes the financial system fragile. As the quantity of debt increases, in other words, the quality should go the opposite direction. It doesn’t make sense for the amount of debt to increase as the price of it increases, too. It is contrary to the most basic law of supply and demand. And yet, yesterday, the price of debt went up… even as the supply of debt worldwide reaches epochal levels." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: There Is No Security in Bonds Right Now

Fed Hawks Want Rate Hikes Soon

"A trio of inflation hawks at the Federal Reserve — Richard Fisher, Esther George and Charles Plosser — believe it's about time to take the punch bowl away. The three regional Fed bank presidents are on a mission to urge their colleagues to take a tougher monetary policy stance, CNNMoney reported. If they are successful, Americans would be hit with higher rates on mortgages, small business loans and credit cards, and many on Wall Street fear bonds and stocks would also suffer. But the Fed hawks believe the alternative to tighter policy could be high inflation and more dangerous asset bubbles." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Hawks Want Rate Hikes Soon

Spain Issues Retroactive 0.03% Tax on Bank Deposits

"Spain will retroactively tax bank deposits to January 1, 2014 stating the move will boost growth and job creation. Guru Huky correctly labeled the tax for what it is 'More than a tax, this looks like a mini seizure of deposits. Someone likely needs a few million and to balance the books.' The notion that a tax increase will boost the economy is of course absurd. But don't worry, it's only 0.03%, nudge nudge, wink wink ... for now." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingSpain Issues Retroactive 0.03% Tax on Bank Deposits

Bursting Switzerland’s bubble

"Last year, SNP chief Thomas Jordan requested a [buffer] to be introduced for Swiss banks, forcing them to hold an additional one percent of risk-weighted assets to stave off the potential dangers of the housing boom. Earlier this year, as worries about a bubble increased, the SNB instigated a number of policies to prevent any more dramatic rises. This included doubling the capital buffer requirement to two percent. However, despite a partial slowdown since January, Jordan told reporters in March that the work was not yet done. 'The pace has slowed, but we are far away from the soft landing we want. We don’t yet see the slowdown that we would like to see.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBursting Switzerland’s bubble

Sweden’s deflated economy: Sub-zero conditions

"Sweden’s economy, which it oversees, grew three times faster than the euro zone’s in 2010 and dodged Europe’s double-dip recession in 2012-13. The Riksbank felt confident enough in recovery to start raising interest rates in 2010. The Riksbank worried that rising household borrowing and soaring house prices could lead to trouble down the road. It therefore opted to 'lean against the wind', in central bankers’ parlance, and deflate the credit boom before it burst catastrophically. It seems instead to have taken the air out of everything but exuberant markets. Unemployment in Sweden has held steady, while Swedish private-sector debt as a share of GDP is higher now than it was in 2010." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingSweden’s deflated economy: Sub-zero conditions

The Fed’s Dreaded Dilemma: A Weak Economy Plus Inflation

"The fact that the Fed’s PCE index is showing inflationary pressure is significant, since it is essentially designed to lowball price increases. The CPI gives a 31 percent weighting to shelter costs and a 17 percent weighting to transportation (read as rent and gasoline), which the PCE basically cuts in half. By reducing the volatility of its preferred inflation gauge, the Fed essentially gives itself the leeway to maintain a looser policy longer. But the fact that the PCE is on the rise leaves the Fed in a conundrum, having said for years now that it would act when inflation reaches an annualized 2 percent, a level that is fast approaching." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThe Fed’s Dreaded Dilemma: A Weak Economy Plus Inflation

Fed Still on Red Alert

"It’s bad enough that central bankers create money out of nowhere to buy bonds. Now it turns out that’s not all they’re buying. A study by global research firm Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) states global public investors 'as a whole appear to have built up their investments in publicly quoted equities by at least $1 [trillion] in recent years.' The percentage of financial advisors who are bullish on the stock market jumped to 62.2%, the fifth straight week this indicator has been above the key 55% level. Other noteworthy tops came in August 1987 (60.8%), October 2007 (62%), and December 2004 (62.9%)." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Still on Red Alert

On The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

"The current plan is that–so long as the economy doesn’t crash–the Fed will taper to $25 billion in August, then $15 billion in September, and then wipe out the remaining $15 billion in October. Here’s a chart showing the behavior of the S&P500 versus the monetary base. It used to be the case that the stock market bounced around with little relation to the Fed’s asset purchases. But since early 2009 and the introduction of QE programs, the stock market and the Fed’s bond buying have moved in virtual lockstep. Let me ask you this: Do you think the S&P should be hitting all-time highs because of how great the underlying economic fundamentals have been the last few years?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingOn The Fed’s (Tentative) End to Bond Purchases in October

Federal Reserve likely to end QE stimulus program in October

"The Federal Reserve is set to end its economic stimulus program in October, bringing to an end the controversial five-year-old scheme even as officials said there were signs that the US economy was still in trouble. Officials have been winding down their monthly purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities since January, but had not set an end date for the scheme. Controversial from the outset, QE was designed to keep long-term interest rates down and encourage investors to back stocks or corporate debt in order to stimulate the economy. Stock markets have hit record highs under QE yet the unemployment rate remains high and there are continuing signs of weakness." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFederal Reserve likely to end QE stimulus program in October