What Could Possibly Go Wrong

Is War Part of a Wall Street Party?

"The consistent raising of nuclear tensions justifies continued economic reactions in order to keep Western economies stable and on track, which may include further justifications for continued monetary easing. International tensions also provide a rationale for a 'flight to safety' that reinforces the primacy of Western markets, in particular US bonds and equities. The up and down security posture of the West versus Russia (and China) can create alternatively a depression of 'animal spirits' and waves of euphoria that can lift markets. Finally, a fluid period of inter-state animosity can provide justifications for an eventual stock market crash that can usher the next phase of economic internationalism." Continue reading →

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Europe’s Pain is the World’s Gain

"Last week the ECB announced that it was cutting its headline lending rate to 0.15 percent and taking its deposit rate to negative 0.10 percent. That means banks must pay the ECB to hold their money, a move the ECB hopes will spur lending. It will also make $545 billion worth of inexpensive loans available to banks with the caveat that they lend more to the private sector. First tranche euro zone banks will be permitted to borrow up to 7% of the value of their corporate loans with additional tranches of funding [on the way]. While the goal of easing is to improve economic conditions at home, the money will ultimately flow to where it can find the greatest returns, as our own experience has shown." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: The Japanese Will Learn to Tango

"For nearly a quarter century, Japan’s diligent savers have funded its government deficits. Now, the savers are retiring. They need their money back. At the same time, Japan’s trade surplus is disappearing. Where will the money come to keep the lights on? Nowhere. Already, there are days when scarcely a single buyer steps up to buy Japanese bonds. The central bank of Japan takes up the slack. And as people get older (spending their savings rather than adding to them) and as the country’s current account surplus disappears (Japan is not the export powerhouse it once was), more slack appears. The Bank of Japan will come to the rescue, of course." Continue reading →

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Fed Prepares to Maintain Record Balance Sheet for Years

"Federal Reserve officials, concerned that selling bonds from their $4.3 trillion portfolio could crush the U.S. recovery, are preparing to keep their balance sheet close to record levels for years. Central bankers are stepping back from a three-year-old strategy for an exit from the unprecedented easing they deployed to battle the worst recession since the Great Depression. The Fed is testing new tools that would allow it to keep a large balance sheet even after it raises short-term interest rates, a step policy makers anticipate taking next year. They would use these tools to drain excess reserves temporarily from the banking system." Continue reading →

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U.S. Regulators Mull Yanking Access To USD As Punishment For Banks

"BNP Paribas is expected to plead guilty in the coming weeks to charges that it processed payments for companies and countries that were subject to United States sanctions. BNP Paribas is also expected to pay financial penalties of about $8 billion, which would leave a sizable, though manageable, dent on its balance sheet. Despite those potential punishments, some regulators want to do more. Specifically, Benjamin M. Lawsky, New York State’s top financial regulator, is considering whether to temporarily suspend BNP Paribas’s ability to process dollar payments, according to people briefed on the settlement talks." Continue reading →

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Former ECB Chief Economist: Buy Gold; Economic System is ‘Pure Fiction’

"Jürgen Stark, former vice president of the Bundesbank, and also former chief economist of the ECB, resigned in late 2011 for his outright rejection to the purchase of government bonds by the ECB. The monetary system was saved in 2011 through concerted action by major central banks worldwide. But, according to Stark, the whole system is 'pure fiction'. The problem is the monetary model itself. That is, the printing of paper currency without real backing and the multiplier by which the commercial banks can expand credit-uncontrolled without prior savings. Stark recommended allocating part of this fictional savings to investment in traditional 'safe havens' such as gold or silver." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFormer ECB Chief Economist: Buy Gold; Economic System is ‘Pure Fiction’

Economy Tanks … and Stocks Soar?

"Negative 1 percent. That’s how much the U.S. economy managed to 'grow' in the first quarter, according to the government’s revised estimate. After more than $800 billion in stimulus spending from Washington. After more than $3 trillion of QE from the Federal Reserve. After six-plus years of record-low interest rates … record levels of monetary intervention in the U.K., Japan and Europe … and the biggest bailouts in the history of the world. It’s much worse than the 0.1 percent gain the Commerce Department originally reported. It was twice as bad as the 0.5 percent decline economists were expecting. And it’s the worst reading since the first quarter of 2011." Continue reading →

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Congrats grads! That’ll be $29,400

"The Class of 2012 graduated with an AVERAGE financial hangover of $29,400. In more expensive parts of the country like the Northeast, four-year degree students owed even more – almost $34,000. We’re not just talking about a handful of students, either. More than 7 in 10 graduates had at least some debt when they got their degrees. The growth in debt is far outpacing the growth in income, too, rising at a rate of about 6 percent per year over the past half-decade. All told, student loan debt now totals around $1.1 TRILLION. That’s almost quadruple the level of a decade earlier. It’s now the single biggest category of consumer debt outside of home mortgages." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: This Hugely Popular Investment Is About to Blow Up

"In a normal world, savers have the choice of staying in cash or quasi-cash and receiving a fair rate of interest. No more. The interest they receive on a 10-year Treasury note is barely over 2.5%. But the real rate of consumer price inflation – according to the most exhaustive survey, done by the MIT, the Billion Prices Project – is 3.91%. What kind of world is it where an honest householder loses nearly 1.5% a year on his savings? It is an odd, rigged-up and dangerously windy one. Investors are stretching out their sails to get higher yields. As a result, bond prices have gone up, reducing yields on bonds rated CCC – below investment grade – to the lowest levels ever recorded." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: This Hugely Popular Investment Is About to Blow Up

Bailout Banks Made Riskier Loans: Study [2011]

"The government bailout made banks appear safer but actually caused them to take on more credit risk, according to a University of Michigan study released Wednesday. According to a working paper by finance professors Ran Duchin and Denis Sosyura of the university of Michigan's Ross School of Business entitled Safer Ratios, Riskier Portfolios: Banks' Response to Government Aid, banks participating in the government's Capital Purchase Program as part of the Troubled Assets Relief Program, or TARP, 'significantly increased their investments in risky securities,' by 10%, 'displacing safer assets, such as Treasury bonds, short-term paper, and cash equivalents.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBailout Banks Made Riskier Loans: Study [2011]