What Could Possibly Go Wrong

10 of the Best ETF Trades of All Time

"Timing the market has fascinated, frustrated, and confused the heck out of countless investors. Whether you’re a self-directed trader or a professional money manager, it’s very likely you’ve found yourself looking through charts, thinking: if only I could’ve had a piece of that trend! While it’s true that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, there is still a great deal of insights to be extracted from analyzing past booms and busts on Wall Street [see A Brief History of ETF Bubbles]. Below we take a stroll down memory lane with perfect hindsight and look at some of the best ETF trades of all time, highlighting their performance as well as any noteworthy lessons from each case." Continue reading →

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China reverts to credit as property slump threatens economy

"New housing starts fell by 15pc in April from a year earlier, with effects rippling through the steel and cement industries. Land sales fell by 20pc, eating into government income. The Chinese central bank has ordered 15 commercial banks to boost loans to first-time buyers and 'expedite the approval and disbursement of mortgage loans', the latest sign that it is backing away from monetary tightening. The authorities are now in an analogous position to Western central banks following years of stimulus: reliant on an asset boom to keep growth going. Each attempt to rein in China’s $25 trillion credit bubble seems to trigger wider tremors, and soon has to be reversed." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingChina reverts to credit as property slump threatens economy

Lessons from the Great Austrian Inflation

"One of these tragic episodes that is worth recalling and learning from was the disintegration of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the accompanying Great Austrian Inflation in the immediate postwar period in the early 1920s. For those who say that such things as a hyperinflation, economic chaos, capital consumption and political tyranny 'can't happen here,' it is worth remembering that a hundred years ago, in 1914, few in prewar Vienna could have imagined that it would happen there." Continue reading →

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Hawks Take Flight: Why the Fed’s Hypocritical Dialectic Continues

"The Fed's monetary expansion ended in 1929. The 1950s equity rise ended with a bust in the early 1960s. The Nifty Fifty fad ended with the Crash of 1969. The market recovery of the 1970s ended in 1982. The next crash was in 1987. In 1994, an expansion gave way to a recession. A great tech expansion turned sour in 2001. A housing bubble deflated violently in 2008, not just in the US but around the world. And that is where we are now. This expansion has been driven relentlessly upward for some five-plus years. Another year or two and this latest 'Wall Street Party' will be finished. We anticipate a downturn that will be as violent or even more so than 2008." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingHawks Take Flight: Why the Fed’s Hypocritical Dialectic Continues

Bank of Israel’s Fischer, Treasury’s Brainard to push for more activist Fed

"The arrival of former Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer and former U.S. Treasury official Lael Brainard will add two strong voices to back Chair Janet Yellen's view that loose monetary policy needs to be extended to turn around a slack labor market. Fischer intervened directly in Israel's mortgage market to tackle a real estate bubble, while Brainard pushed EU governments hard for more aggressive action from the European Central Bank during the euro zone crisis. Interviews with former colleagues and a review of their public statements also suggest both will want the Fed to remain in activist mode long after its current programs wind down and its bloated balance sheet shrinks." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBank of Israel’s Fischer, Treasury’s Brainard to push for more activist Fed

Yellen Concerned Fed Models Fail to Predict Price Moves

"Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is concerned that the standard models central banks use to forecast inflation may be broken. Behind her disquiet: the failure of the models to foresee the path of prices in the U.S. during the last recession and its aftermath and in Japan during its deflationary period from 1998 to 2012. U.S. inflation has been higher than the simulations suggested, while Japanese price declines proved more persistent. Yellen alluded to her concerns in a speech last week, saying the Fed has to 'watch carefully' to see if inflation picks up as the central bank projects -- and hopes -- during the next few years." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingYellen Concerned Fed Models Fail to Predict Price Moves

Fed Tapers Another $10 Billion, Expecting Rebound From Grim Q1

"The U.S. economy stalled out in Q1, as GDP rose at a 0.1% annual rate, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. But with other data showing rebounding growth in the spring, the Federal Reserve voted to taper its bond-buys by another $10 billion. The Fed's decision, widely expected, cited ongoing improvement in the economy. But as previously signaled, the central bank left interest rates untouched and pledged to keep policy easy as long as the economy remained shaky. Residential investment fell hard for a second straight quarter, and business fixed investment declined at a 5.5% rate. Both sectors were expected to help lead the economy in 2014." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Tapers Another $10 Billion, Expecting Rebound From Grim Q1

Millennials Mired in Wealth Gap as Older Americans Recoup Wealth

"The damage inflicted on U.S. households by the collapse of the housing market and recession wasn’t evenly distributed. For households headed by someone 40 years old or younger, wealth adjusted for inflation remains 30 percent below 2007 levels on average. Net worth for older Americans has already recouped the losses. With fewer young people owning homes, not as many are benefiting from the rebound in home prices. What’s more, heads of households under age 40 aren’t benefiting as much from a boom in equity prices, which have hit record highs this year. About 27 percent of 18 to 29 year olds owned stocks as of April 2013, compared to 61 percent of 50 to 64 year olds." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingMillennials Mired in Wealth Gap as Older Americans Recoup Wealth

Housing in U.S. Cools as Rate Rise Hits Sales: Mortgages

"After a roller-coaster decade of boom-bust-boom, the U.S. housing market is going downhill just when many economists thought annual sales would be heading up. Sales of previously owned properties in March tumbled 7.5 percent from a year earlier to the slowest pace in 20 months, while purchases of new houses sank 14.5 percent from February, according to reports this week. Mortgage applications to buy homes plunged 19 percent from a year earlier, indicating slowing demand during what is typically the busiest season for deals. Mortgage interest rates are rising from record lows as the central bank withdraws its stimulus, and investors are now retreating." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingHousing in U.S. Cools as Rate Rise Hits Sales: Mortgages

“Everything we are told about deflation is a lie”

"Messrs Yellen, Draghi et al should be careful what they wish for. Inflation targeting is hardly a precise science. Achieving an entirely arbitrary 2% inflation level is bad enough for savers on fixed incomes when deposit rates are close enough to zero as to make no difference, but markets have a tendency to overshoot. Most government bond markets are clearly overbought – but in a QE world given fresh impetus by the looming arrival of the ECB, overbought markets can become even more overbought. When we don’t claim to understand the underlying dynamics (political) or the final destination (though we have our own fears), it’s much better simply not to play." Continue reading →

Continue Reading“Everything we are told about deflation is a lie”