What Could Possibly Go Wrong

Bill Bonner: Don’t Invest Here in 2014…

"'Prices are very unreliable. So, we just look at what surprises might come… and what impact they will have on us. I mean, I know I will be surprised. So I want a surprise that I will like. And the way you get that is by making sure you always have more upside than downside. You look at the US stock market now and what you see is millions of people who are all sure that the market is going up… as long as the Fed continues to add money to the system. When the Fed stops, they think they are going to get out. But when everyone wants to sell, who will they sell to? So, in our view the surprise is likely to be on the downside… and it will be much more painful than a surprise to the upside.'" Continue reading →

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2013: Year Of The Bitcoin

"Although bitcoin has attracted a lot of attention in the last few months, Babin-Tremblay pointed out that the currency actually started to gain popularity earlier this year as a result of the Cyprus banking crisis. In March the government of Cyprus announced a bail-in for banks, meaning that the financial institutions would have to impose losses on their shareholders, debt holders and even large depositors. After the bail-in was announced people ended up rushing to their bank accounts to withdraw funds. Many put the money into bitcoin, where governments could not touch it. 'Bitcoins were growing slowly until Cyprus. Cyprus was the catalyst for the big increase in the price,' he said." Continue reading →

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Top Hedge Fund Manager on Global Equity Trends and Blown-Up Markets

"Dr. Conrad certainly participated successfully in his era, and his hedge fund uses the latest diversified strategies and instruments around the world to achieve further success today. He's even purchasing farmland and is expanding his commodity positions generally because he believes US equity markets are going to underperform considerably in the next decade. In today's hyper-regulated environment, the kinds of non-regulated, private, diversified strategies that Dr. Conrad employs stand as testimony to diversifying broadly over assets and instruments. Rockier times are surely coming, though not before a 'Wall Street Party' that may elevate equity positions considerably." Continue reading →

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Your Trip on My Time Machine

"How fast and how far could interest rates rise? How soon would they impact other sectors of the economy? How can you profit from this powerful megatrend? On a quest for the answers, I invite you to a voyage through time: We will visit five critical — and incredible — periods of the past. We will return for a reality check of the even more incredible present-day reality. And then, we will take a quick trip into the future to see, first hand, a scenario that we believe is absolutely unavoidable. Our first stop is over a half century ago." Continue reading →

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Why 2014 Will Be Even Worse Than 2013 for Bond Investors

"I’ve given many big-picture reasons: debt and deficits, foreign dumping of bonds, and domestic selling of bond funds and ETFs. Another key reason that’s increasingly coming into focus is this: The economy is on the mend. This does not mean our longer-term economic problems have all gone away. But as I have stressed, it does mean crisis-era interest rates and QE policy have absolutely, positively no justification whatsoever. So if there is any surprise that could rock the bond market in 2014, it’s that the economy is even better than Wall Street expects. That would validate my forecast that the tapering of QE will happen earlier than expected, and so will short-term interest-rate hikes." Continue reading →

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‘I can’t look at myself in the mirror’: Hendry reveals he has turned bullish

"Eclectica hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry has said he has been forced to leave his bearish outlook behind as he faces up to a market 'which only makes sense through the prism of trends'. Hendry said he is no longer fighting the 'two-way feedback loop' which is continuing to boost risk assets. That centres on the currency war being played out between the US and China, in which US QE prompts dollar-denominated investment to head to China, and China fights the resulting upwards pressure on its currency by manufacturing an investment boom - leading to falling US inflation expectations, which in turn prompts the Federal Reserve to loosen policy once again." Continue reading →

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RBS Outage Left Millions Cashless On Busiest Shopping Day Of The Year

"RBS and its retail banking unit Netwest's online systems and debit cards failed on Monday evening as customers were unable to process payments on one of the busiest online shopping days called the 'Cyber Monday'. Millions of customers across the United Kingdom were unable to withdraw cash, pay for goods or use telephone and online banking services. RBS, which is 82 percent owned by the UK government, faced a probe by the Financial Conduct Authority in April when technology failure left customers unable to avail the bank's card and online services. A software upgrade gone wrong also led to similar problems for RBS' customers in June 2012." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingRBS Outage Left Millions Cashless On Busiest Shopping Day Of The Year

Central Banking: Sterile as the Grave

"Central banking is a modern religion, a technocratic one. The world's top men, the ones who control banking, want to present central banking as a science. Any sense of spontaneity, gaiety or eccentricity is to be drained from the process. What is left is a dutiful acknowledgement that those minding the money store are the best of the best – and chosen for their fealty to honesty and their honest resoluteness in the face of the temptations of corruption. A straight-shooter, fearless, well-meaning, earnest ... even a bit nebbish. That's how the central banker is basically presented to the world. You don't usually see them in relaxed environments. You hardly ever see them at barbecues." Continue reading →

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Jim Rogers … Sign of the Times?

"The fiat bull – which is really an unusual equity leg within a larger golden bull, from what we can tell – could run longer, even a lot longer. It could do so, as we have pointed out, with considerable volatility. But if the Fed continues to stuff banks and markets with money, we have a hard time believing that averages could plunge sharply and permanently, or at least not right away. Perhaps Rogers is aware, as we are, that top bankers are seemingly organizing a huge equity blow-off that takes the market a good deal higher before dropping it hard. In such a situation, we think there is certainly a possibility that central banking could be terminally discredited." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingJim Rogers … Sign of the Times?