What Could Possibly Go Wrong

Lonely Jeremiahs

"Like last time, it’s only now — after the first cracks in the market have begun to show themselves — that other prominent experts are joining his camp. Eight years ago, the epicenter of the bust was the American home market. Now, it’s every bond market on the planet. And ultimately, bonds are more vital and pivotal in the global economy than homes. Why? Because a global bond-price collapse automatically comes with a global interest-rate surge; and sharply higher interest rates directly impact every consumer, every corporation or every government that borrows money. How prominent are the voices now joining Larson’s once-lonely chorus? Judge for yourself." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingLonely Jeremiahs

Bill Bonner: Apocalypse Later!

"Corporations can’t continue to borrow so much money at such low rates. But everyone is perfectly happy to postpone that apocalypse too. Stock market investors are no dopes either. They know this Fed-driven bull market must come to an end sometime. By many different measures – P/Es… swollen margin accounts… enterprise-value-to-revenue ratios… investor sentiment – the stock market is already in the danger zone. What will happen? Either the Fed will begin to taper – probably causing a crash. Or investors will get tired of investing real money in a phony trend. Either way, when the apocalypse comes… it will be later." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: Apocalypse Later!

Carney Gets Ready to Blow Up the World

"This article is truly scary. Like a bullet across the bow, or the crack of a whip, it announces with certainty that the world's top bankers intend to blanket the world with faux currency. Carney was said by his central banking peers to be the 'best' central banker of his generation and his recent choice to head the Bank of England was therefore preordained. In fact, we figured that was a bit like being the 'best' used car salesman. But we were wrong. It's worse, much worse. What this article in the Financial Times tells us is that Carney was brought in not just to glad-hand the media and put a sympathetic face on this bloody and miserable facility, but his real brief is to use its powers to the utmost." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingCarney Gets Ready to Blow Up the World

Guy Who Predicted Lehman Brothers’ Fall Sees Big Trouble for China

"The next financial crisis will not come from the United States. All of my systemic risk indicators are clearly pointing at Asia. Asia is back where we were in 2007; they have a trillion dollars of toxic assets off the balance sheets -- hidden. If you look at interbank lending, we meticulously measure every day how much banks trust each other, and that is a phenomenal leading indicator. If you take summer 2011, the S&P dropped 20 percent in about 35-45 days. And sure enough, right before that, the interbank trust in Europe in May and June was completely breaking down because some banks in Europe, France and Germany own a lot of Greek bonds and the Greek bonds were in flames." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingGuy Who Predicted Lehman Brothers’ Fall Sees Big Trouble for China

Bill Bonner: The Fed Was Right…

"Corporate earnings rose. But behind that story lurked another sordid tale. Since the March 2009 low, nearly two-thirds of the rise in operating earnings for S&P 500 companies has come from neither higher sales nor increased productivity. Instead, it has come from lower interest expenses on corporate debt. Corporate America is a debtor. It benefits from lower interest rates, while savers lose. Second, as the so-called “risk free” return on bonds falls, future earnings streams from stocks look more attractive on a relative basis. Third, by evaporating the yields off bonds, the Fed has forced investors to 'reach for yield' elsewhere. An obvious place to look is stocks." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: The Fed Was Right…

Do QE Markets Validate A Buy And Hold Strategy?

"Classical measures of value have been destroyed. It is very difficult to find true price discovery or a reasonable degree of certainty about these markets except that they are artificial and fragile, susceptible to infection from myriad sources. Though equity trends strongly ascend, the ascent is not based on increasing revenues but liquidity that equals debt. In this context, if one 'buys the market' one is betting on continuing QE and an absence of crises that have lingering effects. While QE is likely to continue so long as policy-makers prefer to keep the markets climbing, geopolitical, fiscal or economic crises are nascent, ready to burst into flame." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingDo QE Markets Validate A Buy And Hold Strategy?

U.S. Dollar on the brink of 13-month lows: the long-term consequences

"While the stock market has been rising, the U.S. dollar has been sinking. It’s on the verge of breaking major 13-month lows. It’s not far from reversing everything it gained against a sinking euro during the recent European debt crisis. And once those barriers are breached, it could crash to its lowest level in history. But Washington doesn’t care, and few investors seem to give a damn. They celebrate the fact that, in the near term, a falling dollar helps make U.S. exports more competitive overseas. Plus, they like the fact that a dollar decline temporarily drives global investors away from safety and into risky investments, including U.S. stocks." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingU.S. Dollar on the brink of 13-month lows: the long-term consequences

Let Our Debt Scrub Our Brains

"A majority of Americans with 401(k)-type savings accounts are accumulating debt faster than they are setting aside money for retirement, further undermining the nation's troubled system for old-age saving, a new report has found. Three in five workers with defined contribution accounts are 'debt savers,' according to the report released Thursday, meaning their increasing mortgages, credit card balances and installment loans are outpacing the amount of money they are able to save for retirement." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingLet Our Debt Scrub Our Brains

Cybersecurity: The NSA’s Big Budget Action Movie

"The exercise had an awesome name, inspired by the movies: 'Quantum Dawn 2.' On July 18, scads of U.S. banks, stock exchanges and government agencies took part in a digital fire drill — a practice run in the event all of Wall Street came under massive cyberattack. The scope of this exercise was systemwide, full-on meltdown. 'In some cases,' reads a new account of the exercise from Reuters, 'a blue chip stock started to plummet inexplicably. Soon, shocking news about the company hit the market, but unbeknownst to the participant, the news was fake. For others, trading systems were on the fritz, or government websites stopped functioning.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingCybersecurity: The NSA’s Big Budget Action Movie