What Could Possibly Go Wrong

War in Washington: Two Shocking Forecasts

"The bond investor rebellion we’re forecasting is not unprecedented. It has happened before — in 1980, under the Carter administration. Back then, the federal budget deficit was huge, although not nearly as large as today’s. Consumer inflation was taking off due to years of aggressive easy money by the Fed, although not nearly as aggressive as the Fed’s massive money printing and bond buying of the past five years. There was fear of a hotter cold war, although not nearly as intense as today’s fears. In response, bond buyers went on strike. It was virtually impossible for the United States government to sell its bonds at virtually any price. My forecast was — and is — that this will happen again." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWar in Washington: Two Shocking Forecasts

Buried in Fine Print: $57B of FHA Loans Big Banks May Have to Eat

"The nation's four largest banks are holding $57 billion of seriously delinquent loans that they've been slow to move into foreclosure over concerns that the Federal Housing Administration, the government mortgage insurer, will refuse to cover the losses and hit them with damages, according to industry sources. The banks — Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (NYSE:C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) — have assured investors in the footnotes of quarterly filings that the loans are government-insured and therefore pose no threat to their bottom lines, even if they end up in foreclosure." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBuried in Fine Print: $57B of FHA Loans Big Banks May Have to Eat

We All Know Who Janet Yellen Is, And That’s Terrifying

"The acclaim in the media sends a shiver down the spine. Janet Yellen, just nominated by President Obama as the next head of his Federal Reserve, will be 'the most powerful woman in the planet'. If we were living in a stable monetary order she would be the least powerful woman in the world. Think back to the era of the gold standard before 1914. Britain was the leader of the orchestra in the monetary system. But no one outside a few discount brokers in London knew the name of the Bank of England Governor, who changed each 2 years." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWe All Know Who Janet Yellen Is, And That’s Terrifying

The Most Qualified Fed Chair Since Arthur Burns

"It is not possible for any one human to have the knowledge needed to accomplish the goals established for the Federal Reserve. No person can assure Mr. Wolfers’ daughter her economic future will be bright. Ironically, that might only happen if Yellen took the job but then stepped aside to let the market determine interest rates and the flow of capital. Given Yellen’s views and experience, best case, the professor’s daughter can look forward to a world of no-growth punctuated with the occasional banking crisis. In the worst case, Ms. Yellen will conjure up the memory of Arthur Burns." Continue reading →

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It’s back with a vengeance: Private debt

"As Washington is struggling with debt and all its political ramifications, American companies and consumers are embracing it, running up record amounts in 2013. Consumer credit, for instance, surged past the $3 trillion mark in the second quarter of 2013 and continues on an upward trajectory, according to the most recent numbers from the Federal Reserve. At $3.04 trillion, the total is up 22 percent over the past three years. Student loans are up a whopping 61 percent. Total household debt, according to the Fed's flow of funds report, is at $13 trillion, nearly back to its pre-crisis level in 2007 and a shade below government debt of $15 trillion." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingIt’s back with a vengeance: Private debt

‘Professor of Entrepreneurship’ at MIT Predicts a Bitcoin Backlash

"Simon Johnson, a professor of entrepreneurship at MIT’s Sloan School of Management, expects Bitcoin to face political pressure and aggressive lobbying from big banks because of its disruptive nature. Johnson says that Bitcoin’s success will draw increased attention from governments and regulators, who are used to having tight control over currencies. He believes they will be egged on by established financial institutions, which will likely seek to quash the currency. Bitcoin enables very rapid, cheap transfers and payments that could compete with existing fee-based ways of moving money around. 'Any bankers watching this should be very afraid,' said Johnson." Continue reading →

Continue Reading‘Professor of Entrepreneurship’ at MIT Predicts a Bitcoin Backlash

China warns US to ‘stop manufacturing crises’ and raise debt ceiling

"Premier Li Keqiang added his voice to concerns that the world’s biggest economy could default on its debt. Mr Li told John Kerry, US secretary of state, that China was paying 'great attention' to the issue of raising America's $16.7 trillion (£10.5 trillion) debt ceiling. China is the largest foreign owner of US debt, holding more than $1.277 trillion in Treasury bills. Mr Li's remarks, published by the state-owned Xinhua News Agency, follow comments by vice finance Minister Zhu Guangyao on Monday that 'the clock is ticking' and any US default would have global repercussions. Mr Kerry [is said to have] made clear to Mr Li that President Barack Obama was 'committed to resolving the issue.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingChina warns US to ‘stop manufacturing crises’ and raise debt ceiling

David Stockman Explains The Keynesian State-Wreck Ahead

"'What has been growing is the wealth of the rich, the remit of the state, the girth of Wall Street, the debt burden of the people, the prosperity of the beltway and the sway of the three great branches of government - that is, the warfare state, the welfare state and the central bank... What is flailing is the vast expanse of the Main Street economy where the great majority have experienced stagnant living standards, rising job insecurity, failure to accumulate material savings, rapidly approach old age and the certainty of a Hobbesian future where, inexorably, taxes will rise and social benefits will be cut...' He calls this condition 'Sundown in America'." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingDavid Stockman Explains The Keynesian State-Wreck Ahead

‘Rejoice: the Yellen Fed will print money forever to create jobs’

"We now know where we stand. Janet Yellen is to take over the US Federal Reserve, the world's monetary hegemon, the master of all our lives. The Fed will be looser for longer. The FOMC will continue to print money until the US economy creates enough jobs to reignite wage pressures and inflation, regardless of asset bubbles, or collateral damage along the way. No Fed chief in history has been better qualified. She has pedigree. Her husband is Nobel laureate George Akerlof, the scourge of efficient markets theory. Her lodestar is the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment' (NAIRU). When the rate is above NAIRU, she is a dove: when below, she is a hawk." Continue reading →

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Thanks, Bloomberg, for More Nonsense About Gold

"Central bankers from all over the world meet regularly in Switzerland, at the Bank for International Settlements, to 'coordinate' monetary policy. They sit in a big room in front of a fancy table and discuss what they are going to do. Four men control roughly 75% of the entire world money supply: Zhou Xiaochuan, People’s Bank of China, Mario Draghi, European Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of Japan and Ben Bernanke, US Federal Reserve. Does anyone seriously believe that these four individuals do not operate a common monetary policy? Does anyone believe that any of these individuals have the latitude to go their own way in defiance of the others?" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingThanks, Bloomberg, for More Nonsense About Gold