What Could Possibly Go Wrong

Wanted: A Boring Leader for the Fed

"Quantitative easing has amounted to an audacious experiment in trickle-down economics. Among other things, it has artificially boosted the stock market in the hope that enriching a few — the top 1 percent of American households owned 42 percent of the nation’s financial assets in 2010 — will help the many. Meanwhile, retirees who don’t dare buy stocks have seen their modest bank deposits stagnate with interest rates near zero. Economists hate to admit it, but the profession is as much faith as science. Counting on monetary policy to secure full employment is like attempting vascular surgery with a dull ax." Continue reading →

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The Impending Collapse of the Global “Bernanke Bubble”

"In the past few months, the Turkish lira has depreciated by 4.5% against the dollar, while its dollar-denominated debt stands at $172 billion or 22% of its GDP. Goldman Sachs forecasts a further 15% fall in the Turkish lira, spurring a financial crisis as it becomes more and more expensive to buy dollars to service these loans, most of which are short term. Furthermore, 'some of the biggest beneficiaries of the Fed’s largess were . . . among the politically connected elite in emerging nations like Turkey, where vanity towers, glitzy shopping malls and even grander projects to come have become representative of the nation’s new dynamism.'" Continue reading →

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Obama Presses for Action on Bank Rules

"President Obama urged the nation’s top financial regulators on Monday to move faster on new rules for Wall Street, telling them in a private White House meeting that they must work to prevent a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. Administration officials and some lawmakers have expressed frustration that critical parts of Mr. Obama’s overhaul of the financial system, which was voted into law three years ago and is known as the Dodd-Frank act, remain unenforced as an alphabet soup of federal agencies wrangle over how to adopt it." Continue reading →

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US International Capital Flows

"The US Treasury released data last Thursday tracking international capital flows for the US through June. The outflows out of US securities was shocking. Especially troubling was the amount of US Treasuries sold by foreigners. Their outflows exceeded those from US bond funds. The data suggest that foreign investors may have been more spooked by the Fed’s tapering talk in May and June than domestic investors. As the US federal deficits have swelled, the US government has become more dependent on the kindness of strangers. Apparently, they are losing their interest in helping us out with our debts." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingUS International Capital Flows

US International Capital Flows

"The US Treasury released data last Thursday tracking international capital flows for the US through June. The outflows out of US securities was shocking. Especially troubling was the amount of US Treasuries sold by foreigners. Their outflows exceeded those from US bond funds. The data suggest that foreign investors may have been more spooked by the Fed’s tapering talk in May and June than domestic investors. As the US federal deficits have swelled, the US government has become more dependent on the kindness of strangers. Apparently, they are losing their interest in helping us out with our debts." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingUS International Capital Flows

Michigan’s 4.375% Yield on School Notes Shows Detroit Stigma

"Michigan’s Finance Authority is offering an interest rate almost 14 times higher than that on top-rated bonds to sell $92 million of one-year notes for Detroit’s public schools. Today’s deal is the first tied to the Motor City since it sought bankruptcy protection July 18. The bonds are backed by state aid payments. The securities maturing in August 2014 are being offered with a preliminary yield of 4.375 percent, down from 4.5 percent earlier in the sale, according to three people familiar with the deal who requested anonymity because the pricing wasn’t final. That compares with a 0.32 percent interest rate on benchmark AAA munis due in one year." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingMichigan’s 4.375% Yield on School Notes Shows Detroit Stigma

Michigan’s 4.375% Yield on School Notes Shows Detroit Stigma

"Michigan’s Finance Authority is offering an interest rate almost 14 times higher than that on top-rated bonds to sell $92 million of one-year notes for Detroit’s public schools. Today’s deal is the first tied to the Motor City since it sought bankruptcy protection July 18. The bonds are backed by state aid payments. The securities maturing in August 2014 are being offered with a preliminary yield of 4.375 percent, down from 4.5 percent earlier in the sale, according to three people familiar with the deal who requested anonymity because the pricing wasn’t final. That compares with a 0.32 percent interest rate on benchmark AAA munis due in one year." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingMichigan’s 4.375% Yield on School Notes Shows Detroit Stigma

Repo Market Decline Raises Alarm as New Regulations Strain Debt

"The U.S. repurchase, or repo, market where banks and investors borrow and lend Treasuries and other fixed-income securities shrunk to $4.6 trillion daily outstanding last month, down 35 percent from 2008. Financial institutions are responding to more stringent capital standards imposed by regulators around the world. Already, the group of dealers and investors that advise the U.S. Treasury say that they see declines in liquidity in times of market stress, including wider gaps between bid and offer prices and the speed of completing trades. The potential consequences are higher borrowing costs for governments, companies and consumers." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingRepo Market Decline Raises Alarm as New Regulations Strain Debt

Federal Reserve Issues a Toothless Report on the Big Banks

"Yesterday, the FED issued a report on the lack of capital — too much leverage — of America’s largest banks. In its evaluation, the Federal Reserve found that firms needed to improve a number of aspects of their capital planning processes, including their accounting for risks most relevant to the specific business activities, their methods of projecting the effect of certain stresses on their capital needs, and their governance of the capital planning processes. The banks 'need to improve on a number of issues'? They do? And if they don’t, what will the FED do about it? It will issue another report." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFederal Reserve Issues a Toothless Report on the Big Banks

What The 25% Collapse In Homebuilder Stock Prices Tells Us

"The most important factor that sets the fate of the homebuilder stocks is the housing market. If the housing market has growth potential ahead, then you can bet on homebuilder stocks to provide a stunning performance to the upside. If it’s the opposite scenario, with the housing market looking shaky, then homebuilder stocks usually tank. In other words, homebuilder stocks are very fickle, but they are also a great indicator of future activity in the housing market. Since mid-May, the Dow Jones Home Construction Index has plummeted roughly 25%, and it’s in negative territory year-to-date." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingWhat The 25% Collapse In Homebuilder Stock Prices Tells Us