What Could Possibly Go Wrong

American Dream Slipping as Homeownership at 18-Year Low

"Housing industry and consumer groups are pressing lawmakers to make the American Dream more inclusive by ensuring new mortgage standards designed to prevent another crash are flexible enough that more families can benefit from the recovery. Regulators are close to proposing a softened version of a rule requiring banks to keep a stake in risky mortgages they securitize. Lawmakers currently shaping housing finance are seeking to reduce the government’s role in keeping rates affordable for riskier borrowers while ensuring homeownership is within reach of minorities and first-time buyers who could be needed to sustain the housing recovery." Continue reading →

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Deutsche Bank to Cut Assets $332 Billion as Profit Slides

"Deutsche Bank AG (DBK), continental Europe’s biggest bank, said it will shrink its balance sheet by 250 billion euros ($332 billion), joining Barclays Plc (BARC) and UBS AG (UBSN) in seeking to comply with stricter capital rules. Deutsche Bank will reduce leverage by changing the way it accounts for derivatives and by winding down a 73 billion-euro portfolio of assets. Co-Chief Executive Officer Anshu Jain has been offloading riskier assets, firing staff and raising capital by selling shares as lingering doubts about the ability of Europe’s banks to withstand another financial crisis prompted regulators and shareholders to demand stronger finances." Continue reading →

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6% Treasury yields? May come sooner than you think

"The Federal Reserve will lose control of interest rates as the "great rotation" out of bonds into equities takes off in full force, according to one market watcher, who sees U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hitting 5-6 percent in the next 18-24 months. 'It is our opinion that interest rates have begun their assent, that the Fed will eventually lose control of interest rates. The yield curve will first steepen and then will shift, moving rates significantly higher,' said Mike Crofton, President and CEO, Philadelphia Trust Company told CNBC on Wednesday. Under this scenario, he sees the yield on the 10-year rising to 3.5-4 percent in a 'very short period of time.'" Continue reading →

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The “I Thought Bonds Were Safe” Fallacy…

"Now remember, Bernanke didn’t change rates, he just implied that rates may increase in the future. The market, however, took that rhetoric and ran. Accordingly, the bond market fell. For instance, from its high around May 1st the 30-year treasury market has fallen some 9%. Nine….freaking….percent. That’s a huge move for a seemingly steady and professional market like bonds. It’s also a devastating move to risk-averse bond investors (like my dad.) All said, safety seekers got burned. And you can thank the 'Ber-nank.'" Continue reading →

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Europe’s ‘recovery’ is a conjuring trick

"Stock market indices in Portugal, France and Spain are up by about 30 per cent. That’s pretty impressive for economies running on empty but is completely outshone by Greece, where the main index is now 64 per cent higher than in June 2012. There’s a temptation to look at the direction of travel and conclude that, even for the eurozone’s weaklings, the point of maximum danger is history. This is what EU leaders and the European Central Bank would like us to believe. At the core of this 'recovery' is a bluff that has yet to be called. In August last year, the European Central Bank’s president, Mario Draghi, promised to do 'whatever it takes' to defend the euro." Continue reading →

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Marc Faber on shadow banking, market psychology, & the global impact of American monetary policy

"Marc Faber is an economic authority on global macroeconomics, capital markets, and investment and the Editor & Publisher of 'The Gloom Boom & Doom Report'. He spoke with The Prospect Group about easy monetary policy and credit growth, asset price volatility, and the Fed." Continue reading →

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The Debt Ceiling Battle Is Coming

"A working paper by economist James Hamilton, of UC San Diego, for the National Bureau of Economic Research indicates that the official federal debt, $16.7 trillion, is the tip of the iceberg. Currently, the feds are $86.8 trillion in debt, according to Hamilton. The Treasury department has been looting government pensions to hold the debt ceiling at bay. This can go on for another month or so until the battle in Congress begins again. Sunday, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew pre-empted the debt ceiling fight with a strike against the GOP on Meet the Press. Lew predictably blamed the debt ceiling for the S&P crash of summer 2011." Continue reading →

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People Are Using Borrowed Money To Buy Stock Like It’s 2007 Or 1999

"Deutsche Bank has a monster note out on margin debt that has been making the rounds. The conclusion of the note is rather simple – today’s euphoric borrowing on margin to buy stocks is reminiscent of past bubbly equity market periods (see here for more). The note reviews commentary from the 1999 & 2007 periods and compares it to what’s being said today. So, are we in a 2007 or 2000 type environment? Yes. I would say we are given that the data is confirming the same sort of market trends and debt trends. But the question is what’s the trigger? The market is kind of like a Jenga set at this stage in the cycle." Continue reading →

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Federal Debt: Frozen for Two Months. A Miracle!

"How is is it that the official debt of the United States government has been frozen at $16,699,396,000,000.00 for over 70 days? The Secretary of the Treasury is not saying. He merely reports that this is the case. 'Trust me.' Congress is trusting him. The Media are trusting him. The voters are trusting him. How does the U.S. government deal with an annual deficit of at least $600 billion, yet the official, on-budget debt does not change for over two months? Inquiring minds want to know. Actually, they don’t want to know. This willingness to believe in miracles is part of the national pastime: 'kick the can.'" Continue reading →

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Chicago’s Cash-on-Hand Plunges

"Mayor Rahm Emanuel closed the books on 2012 with $33.4 million in unallocated cash on hand — down from $167 million the year before — while adding to the mountain of debt piled on Chicago taxpayers, year-end audits show, reports the Chicago Sun Times. Last week, Moody’s Investors ordered an unprecedented triple-drop in the city’s bond rating, citing Chicago’s 'very large and growing' pension liabilities, 'significant' debt service payments, 'unrelenting public safety demands'." Continue reading →

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