“China has no desire to fight the United States unless absolutely necessary, and less to spark a US trade embargo. China holds over $1 trillion in US government debt. Beijing has no desire to panic all of East Asia. A war over the Senkaku/Diaoyus would be like the 1998-2000 desert war between Eritrea and Ethiopia, described as ‘two bald men fighting over a comb.’ No matter how much fish swim around the Senkakus, or how much oil and gas may be found underwater, nothing justifies a war. But, then again, nothing justified World War I that began by a murder in obscure Bosnia. Pray for cool heads in Beijing and Tokyo.”
Archived link: http://ericmargolis.com/2013/02/a-close-call-in-the-china-sea/