“Business cycles are in a sense predictable because the entire economic environment is structured via central bank money printing. It is this artificiality that makes Austrian economic forecasting viable. What one can never predict, of course, is the timing of the ‘turning.’ Exactly where we are in the business cycle is uncertain, though again, one can certainly point out that we are in a precious metals bull market, even despite the recent difficulties of gold. This particular pro-metals market started early in the 2000s and may well continue until we reach a precious metals ‘mania’ of sorts as we saw in the 1970s. The only way to puncture something like that in the short term is to raise interest rates.”
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