“Iraq and Afghanistan were the only hot spots and Iran was the only major country where long-term stability could be seriously questioned. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict was raging, as always. But in contrast to the new wars elsewhere, that six-decades-old conflict was such a known quantity one would be hard pressed to argue that it was a significant destabilizing factor for the region. Bottom line: Two, maybe three, conflicts to seriously worry about. Moderate impact on the major world powers. No broad threat to the global economy. High hopes for future long-term stability. Now, fast-forward to the last day of August, 2013, and look how dramatically the picture has changed.”
