Money For Nothing

Kyle Bass: If China Doesn’t Change, ‘Full-Scale Recession’ Sometime Next Year

"'The compounded annual growth of bank assets as measured by the China Banking Regulatory Commission has been 30.8%,' Bass wrote. 'To give some perspective, a 30.8% compounded annual growth of credit in the U.S. equivalent over 5 years would be an expansion of $33 trillion. This rate of credit growth is three times the total credit system growth experienced in the U.S. at the peak of the bubble in 2006... The debt-to-equity ratios of Chinese companies are exploding as they funnel new capital, not into yield returning investments, but into the black holes on their balance sheets that have been created by a slowing growth environment.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingKyle Bass: If China Doesn’t Change, ‘Full-Scale Recession’ Sometime Next Year

Peter Schiff: Tapering the Taper Talk

"In truth, I believe that the Fed's next big announcement will be to increase, not diminish QE. After all, Bernanke made clear in his press conference that if the economy does not perform up to his expectations, he will simply do more of what has already failed. Of course, when the Fed is forced to make this concession, it should be obvious to a critical mass that the recovery is a sham. Investors will realize that years of QE have only exacerbated the problems it was meant to solve. When the grim reality of QE infinity sets in, the dollar will drop, gold will climb, and the real crash will finally be upon us. Buckle up." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingPeter Schiff: Tapering the Taper Talk

QE Won’t End—It Will Increase

"Bernanke and the Fed are going to reconsider the end of QE, and then decide against it. And eventually, if yields continue to rise (that is, if bond prices continue to fall), Benny and the Fed will up the dosage on the QE. Whatever it takes to keep yields down and interest rates low. Remember, Bernanke and the Fed are convinced that higher interest rates will kill any sustained recovery. Nothing will shake them from that idée fixe. Therefore they will do anything to prevent high interest rates—including walking back this talk of ending QE, and upping the dosage as need be to achieve their goal of sustained, consistent zero-percent interest." Continue reading →

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“Banish Fractional Reserve Banking for Real Reform”

". . . says Thomas Mayer, a former IMF economist and former Chief Economist of Deutsche Bank Group and Head of DB Research, and now a Deutcshe Bank Senior Advisor. Mayer goes on to cite Austrian monetary and business-cycle theorist Jesus Huerta de Soto on the causal connection between fractional reserves and banking crises throughout history. He points out: 'Since there is no single state in the eurozone able to bail out banks in a systemic crisis, a banking regime without state backing is needed.' He concludes his letter with a four-step plan for 'comprehensive' banking reform that would implement just such a regime." Continue reading →

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British central bank softens rules for banks to give economy £70bn boost

"The UK’s big four lenders will be able to reduce their cash and cash-like assets by 20pc under the recommendation, made by the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC). The excess 'liquidity' could then be used 'to support lending to the real economy', it said. The FPC estimated the impact of the rule change on the big four to be 'around £70bn'. Interest rates have been at a record low of 0.5pc for more than four years and households have become increasingly reliant on such cheap credit. The proportion of borrowers on variable rate mortgages linked to the 0.5pc rate is close to a historical high, the Bank said." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBritish central bank softens rules for banks to give economy £70bn boost

Fed Committee Member Warns Off ‘Feral Hogs’ in Markets

"Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve and a member of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said in an interview with the Financial Times that while the big players in financial markets acted like 'feral hogs' by scenting any weakness in policy makers’ intent, he did not think anyone could break the US central bank. Commenting on the market turbulence that has followed Fed chair Ben Bernanke’s signal that the bank could begin tapering its $85bn monthly bond purchases before the end of this year, Fisher told the FT: 'My personal feeling is that you don’t walk up to a lion and flinch.'" Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Committee Member Warns Off ‘Feral Hogs’ in Markets

Fed Chairman Bernanke Admits the Fed Has No Clue

"ROBIN HARDING. Mr. Chairman, you’ve always argued that it’s the stock of assets that the Federal Reserve holds which affects long-term interest rates. How do you reconcile that with a very sharp rise in real interest rates that we’ve seen in recent weeks? And do you think the market is correctly interpreting what you think is most likely to be the future path of the Federal Reserve’s stock of assets? Thank you. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Well, we were a little puzzled by that. It was bigger than can be explained I think by changes in the ultimate stock of asset purchases within reasonable ranges. So I think we have to conclude that there are other factors at work..." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingFed Chairman Bernanke Admits the Fed Has No Clue

Bernanke Has Gone Rogue

"Bloomberg said it well: 'Federal Reserve officials intensified efforts to curb a growth-threatening rise in long-term interest rates, seeking to clarify comments by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke that triggered turmoil in global financial markets.' Clarify, my foot. They are seeking to rein in Bernanke, who on his own authority changed the targets. Dudley is the Vice Chairman of the FOMC. They are trying to put out the interest rate fire that Bernanke’s comments last week produced in the bond market and mortgage market — the targets of QE3. Bernanke has gone rogue. Dudley is trying to bring him under control. He is trying to persuade investors that QE3 is here to stay." Continue reading →

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How to Survive When Prices Double Every Day and a Half

"At a 2011 Casey Research Summit, I met and heard the firsthand accounts of three gentlemen from Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Yugoslavia, who had survived hyperinflation in their home countries. Although these may sound like exotic locales with foreign problems, their terrifying histories have a lesson to teach us. Hyperinflation is like fire. We all install smoke alarms, keep fire extinguishers handy, and buy insurance to protect our homes, but most of us will never fall victim to an unplanned fire. However, when a fire does ignite, it can be catastrophic – which is why prudent people simply plan ahead." Continue reading →

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Bill Bonner: An Important Lesson from Tony Soprano

"Whew! The Fed is number one in central banking. And it's finding out just how tough it can be to meddle with a $16 trillion economy. On Wednesday, Ben Bernanke came out with a public statement. He said that if all went well... and he didn't change his mind... and nothing unexpected came up...and the Fed's Open Market Committee felt like it... the Fed would begin tapering its bond buying sometime soon. That was all it took to send a shiver up investors' spines... and a sell signal to Wall Street. Everything sold off – stocks, bonds, commodities, gold... you name it." Continue reading →

Continue ReadingBill Bonner: An Important Lesson from Tony Soprano