What Could Possibly Go Wrong

Housing…”For-Sale” Supply Wave Hitting Market?

"The housing market has been turbocharged by the greatest direct stimulus in history over the past 18 months. I hear so much that the past year 'recovery' has to be 'organic' because the 'government' is not providing any stimulus or subsidies. Perhaps, technically they are correct because the Fed is not a government agency. But when you factor in the power of the Fed buying rates down from 5.5% in 2011 to 3.25% in 2012/13 on demand and 6.5 million mortgage mods on supply you come up with a very volatile situation if that go-go-juice is ever taken away. And it was just taken away." Continue reading →

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The Case for Fed Tapering Sooner Rather Than Later

"The best way to (ahem) get the attention of the political class is to taper now, trigger a stock market decline and speak directly to the elected leadership's need to put the fiscal house in order. This is the only way the Fed can escape taking the bullet during the next financial crisis. 'We told you so' is much better than 'we did everything we could and it still fell apart.' Better to engineer a mini-crisis while you're still in control than let a crisis you can't control run away from you, and better to pass the ticking time-bomb to the elected leadership while you still can." Continue reading →

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This Could Shake Muni Bonds to the Core

"Detroit went bankrupt, but so what? Its own decades-long gross political mismanagement, corruption and incompetence pushed the city over the cliff into bankruptcy. Why should we care? The largest Chapter 9 filing in U.S. history will reverberate well beyond this once- bustling city and its creditors. What's most threatening to muni bond investors, and in fact all investors, is whether the city's general obligation bonds are secured or unsecured issues. General obligation bonds, backed by a city's ability to levy taxes to pay interest and principal, are thought to be the safest of all munis. Detroit is putting this to the test." Continue reading →

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Why U.S. Policy in East Asia is Dangerous

"The United States contained the Soviets until the government collapsed because of economic stagnation and a plummeting price of oil—the only thing anyone ever wanted to buy from the USSR. Now, the United States’ latest pivot to East Asia is intended to reinforce the already existing containment policy towards China by building up U.S. military forces and augmenting Cold War alliances in the region. This is unlikely to stem China’s rise. While Russia was supposedly on the rise, their economy was sinking. In China’s case, their economy is largely the reason behind their new status as an international power broker." Continue reading →

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Woolly mammoth DNA may lead to a resurrection of the ancient beast

"The pioneering scientist who created Dolly the sheep has outlined how cells plucked from frozen woolly mammoth carcasses might one day help resurrect the ancient beasts. The notional procedure – bringing with it echoes of the Jurassic Park films – was spelled out by Sir Ian Wilmut, the Edinburgh-based stem-cell scientist, whose team unveiled Dolly as the world's first cloned mammal in 1996. Though it is unlikely that a mammoth could be cloned in the same way as Dolly, more modern techniques that convert tissue cells into stem cells could potentially achieve the feat, Wilmut says in an article today for the academic journalism website, The Conversation." Continue reading →

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Long Term US Interest Rates Hit Two Year High

"Long-term interest rates are on the climb again in the United States. Below is a chart showing the interest rate of the 10-year Treasury note since June, 2011. The rate hit a 2-year high today. This despite Fed bond purchases. In the EPJ Daily Alert, I have forecast that this is the start of a multi-year climb in rates. Despite absurd comments by members of the Fed that price inflation is below target, the MIT billion prices index shows price inflation is above target at around 2.5%. Buckle your seat belt." Continue reading →

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Bernanke, Coolidge, and Buchanan: On Timing Your Departure

"Under him, the country suffered the worst economic setback since the Great Depression. He used the printing press to bail out some large banks and a few over-leveraged investment firms. He served as Hank Paulson's silent potted plant. He addicted the American economy to what amounts to hyperinflation of the monetary base. The commercial banks are not lending. The recovery is barely functioning. The economy has sustained its worst performance since the Great Depression. He has been in charge the entire time. He is trying to get out with his reputation intact. He is likely to make it, and whoever follows him will likely not make it." Continue reading →

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The Financial Tale of Two Cities: Detroit and Chicago

"At State Data Lab, we calculate and report a metric called ‘Net Revenue’ for all 50 states. Net Revenue subtracts total reported net expenses from general revenue. It can inform whether a state is truly ‘balancing its budget,’ at least as far as reported results. Net revenue can also be calculated for cities. The chart above shows how net revenue in Detroit was persistently negative in the five years before its bankruptcy filing. The chart also shows an even more alarming trend for the city of Chicago. And those results can understate reality; they rely on the city’s financial reports, which do not include accumulating off-balance sheet retirement obligations." Continue reading →

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The rich are saving cash at a record pace

"Since the financial crisis, the wealthy have become the nation's top cash hoarders. The savings rate of the wealthiest 1 percent soared to 37 percent in the second quarter. That's up from 34 percent in the second quarter of 2012—and more than three times their savings rate in 2007. A separate study from Bank of America recently found that 56 percent of millionaires have a 'substantial' amount of cash. Only 16 percent of them plan to invest that cash in the next couple of months. Perhaps the wealthy are wise to keep more money on hand in case those record-breaking markets start to falter." Continue reading →

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