“A new paper for the US Monetary Policy Forum and published by the Fed warns that the institution’s capital base could be wiped out ‘several times’ once borrowing costs start to rise in earnest. A mere whiff of inflation or more likely stagflation would cause a bond market rout, leaving the Fed nursing escalating losses on its $2.9 trillion holdings. This portfolio is rising by $85bn each month under QE3. The longer it goes on, the greater the risk. Exit will become much harder by 2014. What is new is that these worries are surfacing openly in Fed circles.”
