“Libya’s oil output has crashed to a near standstill over the past year as warlords and strikes paralyse the country, tightening the screws on global crude supply as the crisis in Syria comes to a head. There are still pockets of rising oil output, notably in the US where shale oil is rapidly reducing US dependence on energy imports. The geo-strategic effect of shale is double-edged for the US: it lowers the incentive for Washington to commit forces to the Middle East, but it also means the US is better able to handle the consequences of any oil spike. The biggest losers would be those emerging economies such as India and China that rely on fuel imports and operate inefficient industries.”
